Earlier quoted context omitted.
> the collective probability of rare, but expensive health issues is basically 100% Not really, no. Most people will die of something expensive, but not $2M expensive. A quick google says that per-capita lifetime health care expediture is ~$300k.
If you are referencing this https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1361028/ That data is from the late 1990s, before the Affordable Care Act greatly expanded access to healthcare, and many new treatment options have become available since then. What I meant, though, is that across a big population’s entire lifetime, there will be a ton of high healthcare cost events. And with technological progress, new treatme…
Sorry, how does that follow? Insurance works any time you have a function with predictable average but high variance. Is the total health care expenditure across a relevant subscriber base in 2023 very close to 2022? Then you can make insurance work. It's just math.