Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse • Hacker News Board

Re: Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse

#131

Post by mike_d » Tue, Sep 19, 2023, 1:32 AM UTC

acdha wrote: post #86

mike_d wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Induced demand has been thoroughly debunked [1]. If you build a 20 lane no-stops highway from Fresno to Reno, you might see some use shift from other routes, but it does not spur a horde of people to buy cars so they can drive the route. It is just a convenient thought experiment to point at for people who don't want to invest in infrastructure to meet current demand. You could make a genuine argument that demand sho…

> If you build a 20 lane no-stops highway from Fresno to Reno, you might see some use shift from other routes, but it does not spur a horde of people to buy cars so they can drive the route. That’s misunderstanding the concept: in our hypothetical superhighway, it’s true that people who already lived on that route wouldn’t buy more cars to drive it but that was never the claim. What was claimed is what we saw through…

Thank you this is a great example of my point. Induced demand, despite having no hard evidence to support it, feels like it should be the answer. We could talk all day about the concept of going out and seeing for yourself in a large field there is no curve and how the "concept" just makes sense, but flat earth has the same amount of evidence.

Re: Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse

#132

Post by Bluestrike2 » Tue, Sep 19, 2023, 1:50 AM UTC

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #102

Bluestrike2 wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely, but networked autonomous vehicles moving faster so as to increase traffic flow like the parent mentioned would only make the problem worse. People behave unpredictably. Hell, even when they behave predictably and cross at the crosswalk when they’re supposed to, they can still get hit by cars. That said, on-street parking does have the benefit of placing a multi-ton shield between traffic and pedestrians a…

I don’t think any road that has kids playing shouldn’t have a fast speed limit. And any road with faster traffic should have no street parking at all, better visibility from the sidewalk, and probably some separation (deeper curbs?). This is regardless of whether AI or people are driving. Slower speeds work for sure, but getting a robo taxi to adhere to those slower speeds is much more realistic than getting a human…

Road design sends signals to drivers: wide lanes and other design choices make a road less cognitively stressful, and so you speed up. It feels like you should be able to move a bit faster, and so you do. If the posted speed limit doesn't feel right, drivers will ignore it.

The answer is to take that into account with traffic calming measures[0] that alter the street design and make it more stressful for drivers. Narrower lanes, big trees overhanging the street, small traffic circles, pinchpoints, and other measures making driving fast very uncomfortable. You feel like you need to pay more attention, and drivers naturally slow down as a result.

0. https://globaldesigningcities.org/publication/global-street-...

Re: Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse

#133

Post by seanmcdirmid » Tue, Sep 19, 2023, 3:10 AM UTC

Bluestrike2 wrote: post #132

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think any road that has kids playing shouldn’t have a fast speed limit. And any road with faster traffic should have no street parking at all, better visibility from the sidewalk, and probably some separation (deeper curbs?). This is regardless of whether AI or people are driving. Slower speeds work for sure, but getting a robo taxi to adhere to those slower speeds is much more realistic than getting a human…

Road design sends signals to drivers: wide lanes and other design choices make a road less cognitively stressful, and so you speed up. It feels like you should be able to move a bit faster, and so you do. If the posted speed limit doesn't feel right, drivers will ignore it. The answer is to take that into account with traffic calming measures[0] that alter the street design and make it more stressful for drivers. Nar…

The Dutch have figured this out, there are plenty of things you can do to make roads better and safer for pedestrians, we just don't do that here in the USA. It is just that, if drivers could be controlled, you could focus on more pedestrian/bike safety and expect cars not to go too fast (assuming all cars were self driving, which won't happen for a long time in the states at least).

Re: Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse

#134

Post by tim333 » Tue, Sep 19, 2023, 12:00 PM UTC

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #129

tim333 wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Singapore being Singapore will probably have some sensible way to price the robo taxis

If the robo taxies aren't cheaper than normal taxies, they simply aren't going to be used. The fact that taxies are so cheap in Singapore already makes me think that robo taxies aren't even needed (is labor really so cheap there?).

"The average taxi driver salary in Singapore is S$24,900 per year or S$10.88" according to random googling. Having been there one of the big problems with normal taxis is that there aren't a huge number so if it starts raining only about 10% of people wanting one get one. Not sure if robos would help there.