Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap • Hacker News Board

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#131

Post by _hypx » Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 4:55 AM UTC

jbm wrote: post #130

bestham wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Toyota is one of the top innovators in the world when it comes to manufacturing. The reason Tesla is able to produce millions of Model 3 is partly because they are applying the lessons learned from the Toyota production system (TPS). Toyota have a lot of experience of electrification, they just have not produced a lot of vehicles with a charging plug. Toyota will deliver EVs that good enough to compete with all other…

My post above included a gas car (the Sienna) which is backordered for years in my country (Canada). There is obviously some kind of breakdown in the way their company is run; how else can you leave that many customers waiting for that period of time? The pandemic is not an excuse anymore. I have no confidence they will successfully produce an EV with the classic Toyota reliability because of the software piece. It's…

You're just being brainwashed by BEV propaganda. It is not a sustainable solution and does not work for the majority of car buyers. There will come a day when we will laugh at your decision in the same way we laugh at the diesel car. Ethanol/flexfuel cars in the US too. Eventually, everyone will be forced to scale back or outright abandon BEVs, and adopt the next wave of technology such as FCEVs or some other type of hydrogen car.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#132

Post by jbm » Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 5:50 AM UTC

_hypx wrote: post #131

jbm wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My post above included a gas car (the Sienna) which is backordered for years in my country (Canada). There is obviously some kind of breakdown in the way their company is run; how else can you leave that many customers waiting for that period of time? The pandemic is not an excuse anymore. I have no confidence they will successfully produce an EV with the classic Toyota reliability because of the software piece. It's…

You're just being brainwashed by BEV propaganda. It is not a sustainable solution and does not work for the majority of car buyers. There will come a day when we will laugh at your decision in the same way we laugh at the diesel car. Ethanol/flexfuel cars in the US too. Eventually, everyone will be forced to scale back or outright abandon BEVs, and adopt the next wave of technology such as FCEVs or some other type of…

OK, let's take the fact that I'm brainwashed while you are a free thinking sovereign citizen who just understands reality better than everyone else for granted.

The fact remains that they can't sell me a new car and deliveries are years out - so I'm a brainwashed person who tried to buy a gas minivan and was told that it wasn't available. Or did I just imagine that?

If you'd like, you can contact Stampede Toyota (https://www.toyota.ca/toyota/en/dealer/14058) and have a discussion with them if you feel I'm lying to you

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#133

Post by theshrike79 » Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 7:37 AM UTC

_hypx wrote: post #128

theshrike79 wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you factor in timing belt costs, clutch costs, oil changes and a full engine overhaul cost to the ICE side? Very very few EV batteries actually need replacing. We have statistics from Nissan and Tesla from over a decade ago and even those ancient batteries have performed better than expected, retaining 80%+ of capacity. Newer batteries are better.

This isn't the 1970s anymore. Very few cars have major repair costs from engine problems. People are just creating an elaborate narrative of cost savings. Insurance cost data doesn't seem to bore this out. BEVs have pretty decent maintenance costs.

Before switching to hybrids, I literally spend thousands of euros fixing my VW diesel that was worth maybe 10k€.

The dual-mass flywheel broke, that was 1k€. Had to do a clutch repair at the same time, 700€. The turbo started acting up, that was around a grand with all the labour. When the turbo was fixed, it clogged the already close to full diesel particulate filter. That would've been 2000€ to replace, but I knew a guy who just emptied the casing and modded the software on the car to think it was still there.

Finally a tiny hexagonal thing at the bottom of the engine broke, which prevented any oil from circulating in the engine. That would've been a 2000€ operation. Had my guy do a quick patch job with some bonding agent, sold the car.

...and that's on top of the normal wear and tear + yearly oil changes etc.

The car was under 10 years old at the time and 90% of the problems were issues with the overly complex drivetrain with thousands of moving parts, instead of just one like with electric engines.

On the hybrids I owned all the issues were in the combustion engine. On my current EV all the problems are unrelated to the drivetrain - currently the AC can't hold its coolant for more than 6 months, haven't found the leak yet.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#134

Post by theshrike79 » Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 7:39 AM UTC

_hypx wrote: post #129

theshrike79 wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can't just specify a diameter and go from there. You must create a seal to prevent hydrogen from leaking from the pump. It's doable, but also dangerous if you get it wrong. Imagine the amount of people who mess up refueling an ICE vehicle. Now extrapolate that to H2 refuelling where we're dealing with a highly flammable gas in extremely high pressures. > Electricity is already distributed. The fact that you are…

Thousands of people refuel with hydrogen regularly. There is no evidence of real danger. The problem isn't that you can't live with a BEV, it's that you don't have to. People are "fighting the last war." There is a way of making an EV that has zero compromises compared to ICE cars. BEVs in that context are coming obsolete or perhaps niche cars.

Thousands of enthusiastic early adopters.

Could Grandma Jones from two houses over, who just turned 80 do it?

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#135

Post by theshrike79 » Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 7:45 AM UTC

_hypx wrote: post #126

theshrike79 wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The availability will be the biggest problem for the next decade, unless governments force it with huge subsidies. The EU has mandated that every "major highway" must have a H2 depot every 2-300km, can't remember exactly. But still you need to get it made somewhere, preferably not from natural gas, because that's just stupid. It needs to be transported to a station, by truck, on a regular schedule or it'll stop worki…

Pipelines are likely the cheapest option, with trucks for last mile deliveries. The problem with "power outlets" is that they're heavily dependent on fossil fuel power plants. Since it is an unpredictable variable load, even more so than you think. Which is why it is really a transitional solution. From the beginning, it was about replacing distributed emissions with centralized ones, usually far away from cities. At…

Hydrogen doesn't work with pipelines, the molecule size is too small. The losses would be uneconomical and possibly dangerous.

Currently the grid over here is producing 17g of CO2/kWh, pretty much 90-95% is either nuclear or renewables. We're also exporting a portion of our excess to neighbouring countries.

The fact that Americans can't modernise their grid doesn't apply to the whole world, you see.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#136

Post by _hypx » Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 4:01 PM UTC

theshrike79 wrote: post #135

_hypx wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pipelines are likely the cheapest option, with trucks for last mile deliveries. The problem with "power outlets" is that they're heavily dependent on fossil fuel power plants. Since it is an unpredictable variable load, even more so than you think. Which is why it is really a transitional solution. From the beginning, it was about replacing distributed emissions with centralized ones, usually far away from cities. At…

Hydrogen doesn't work with pipelines, the molecule size is too small. The losses would be uneconomical and possibly dangerous. Currently the grid over here is producing 17g of CO2/kWh, pretty much 90-95% is either nuclear or renewables. We're also exporting a portion of our excess to neighbouring countries. The fact that Americans can't modernise their grid doesn't apply to the whole world, you see.

That's just blatantly false: https://www.gasworld.com/story/wood-to-expand-us-hydrogen-pi...

In reality, hydrogen is much cheaper than expanding the grid. You are basically dismissing basic physics with nationalism. Whichever country you're from, it too will find out that is cheaper to build a hydrogen network rather than massive grid expansion.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#137

Post by _hypx » Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 4:06 PM UTC

theshrike79 wrote: post #133

_hypx wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't the 1970s anymore. Very few cars have major repair costs from engine problems. People are just creating an elaborate narrative of cost savings. Insurance cost data doesn't seem to bore this out. BEVs have pretty decent maintenance costs.

Before switching to hybrids, I literally spend thousands of euros fixing my VW diesel that was worth maybe 10k€. The dual-mass flywheel broke, that was 1k€. Had to do a clutch repair at the same time, 700€. The turbo started acting up, that was around a grand with all the labour. When the turbo was fixed, it clogged the already close to full diesel particulate filter. That would've been 2000€ to replace, but I knew a…

That's likely a deficiency of your VW diesel. VW never properly designed them correctly, and that includes not meeting emissions. Other car engines likely won't have that many issues.

Once you deal with the eventuality of a dead battery, it will easily trump all repair costs of ICE cars. People are just pretending it won't happen to them.

Also, an FCEV is an electric car too, and doesn't have that many mechanical parts either. It also lacks a giant battery. Basic engineering suggests it will be the cheapest type of car of all to maintain once they hit critical mass.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#138

Post by _hypx » Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 4:22 PM UTC

jbm wrote: post #132

_hypx wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're just being brainwashed by BEV propaganda. It is not a sustainable solution and does not work for the majority of car buyers. There will come a day when we will laugh at your decision in the same way we laugh at the diesel car. Ethanol/flexfuel cars in the US too. Eventually, everyone will be forced to scale back or outright abandon BEVs, and adopt the next wave of technology such as FCEVs or some other type of…

OK, let's take the fact that I'm brainwashed while you are a free thinking sovereign citizen who just understands reality better than everyone else for granted. The fact remains that they can't sell me a new car and deliveries are years out - so I'm a brainwashed person who tried to buy a gas minivan and was told that it wasn't available. Or did I just imagine that? If you'd like, you can contact Stampede Toyota ( ht…

First of all, I'm sure the shortage of minivans is related to Covid-19 and probably due to lack of parts. There's no helping that.

The problem with BEVs is that they are a very limited solution that does not work for everyone. Toyota is likely aware that it is going to be a transitional technology, and is making the decision to not waste too much resources pursuing this market. All of the cars companies that have will likely go through bitter process where they scale back or abandon their BEV investments. We've seen this happen with diesel. And if/when it happens again with batteries, it will just represent another example of Toyota being ahead of the curve rather than being stuck in short-term thinking.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#139

Post by theshrike79 » Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 5:28 PM UTC

_hypx wrote: post #137

theshrike79 wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Before switching to hybrids, I literally spend thousands of euros fixing my VW diesel that was worth maybe 10k€. The dual-mass flywheel broke, that was 1k€. Had to do a clutch repair at the same time, 700€. The turbo started acting up, that was around a grand with all the labour. When the turbo was fixed, it clogged the already close to full diesel particulate filter. That would've been 2000€ to replace, but I knew a…

That's likely a deficiency of your VW diesel. VW never properly designed them correctly, and that includes not meeting emissions. Other car engines likely won't have that many issues. Once you deal with the eventuality of a dead battery, it will easily trump all repair costs of ICE cars. People are just pretending it won't happen to them. Also, an FCEV is an electric car too, and doesn't have that many mechanical par…

Have you looked up the lifetime and replacement cost of the fuel cell btw?

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#140

Post by _hypx » Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 6:20 PM UTC

theshrike79 wrote: post #139

_hypx wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's likely a deficiency of your VW diesel. VW never properly designed them correctly, and that includes not meeting emissions. Other car engines likely won't have that many issues. Once you deal with the eventuality of a dead battery, it will easily trump all repair costs of ICE cars. People are just pretending it won't happen to them. Also, an FCEV is an electric car too, and doesn't have that many mechanical par…

Have you looked up the lifetime and replacement cost of the fuel cell btw?

In the long-run, this will be very small. They do not have huge resource requirements of batteries. Though at the moment, these things have zero scale so repair costs are exaggerated.