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Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

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Re: Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

#131

Post by jbullock35 »

cemerick wrote: post #2

This news really highlights the confirmation bias that was in full bloom throughout the "discourse" around the initial reports of Lee's murder (e.g. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35448899 ). Everyone is so quick to jump on negative news about the rare violent crime in e.g. SF thanks to feelings about petty property crime that it's obviously impossible to have any kind of fact-based dialogue about policy. Worth…

> _2600+_ comments on it, most of them hysterical about SF crime [of course, completely divorced from actual stats, i.e. SF has fewer homicides per capita than almost every other American city, including current faves Austin and Miami]

On this list of homicides per capita [1], San Francisco ranks far higher than Austin in incidents per capita of "Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter": 2.57 per 100,000 people in Austin, vs. 6.35 per 100,000 in SF.

It also ranks higher than New York, Portland, San Diego, San Jose, and Seattle.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b...

Re: Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

#133

Post by kortilla »

cemerick wrote: post #2

This news really highlights the confirmation bias that was in full bloom throughout the "discourse" around the initial reports of Lee's murder (e.g. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35448899 ). Everyone is so quick to jump on negative news about the rare violent crime in e.g. SF thanks to feelings about petty property crime that it's obviously impossible to have any kind of fact-based dialogue about policy. Worth…

>hysterical about SF crime [of course, completely divorced from actual stats, i.e. that SF has fewer homicides per capita than almost every other American city,

You’re doing the same thing in this thread, where the very article we are discussing shows that murders have been on the rise in the past 5 years.

Your comment was good, then you used the edit to spew your confirmation bias.

Re: Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

#134

Post by Vervious »

cemerick wrote: post #2

This news really highlights the confirmation bias that was in full bloom throughout the "discourse" around the initial reports of Lee's murder (e.g. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35448899 ). Everyone is so quick to jump on negative news about the rare violent crime in e.g. SF thanks to feelings about petty property crime that it's obviously impossible to have any kind of fact-based dialogue about policy. Worth…

A ton of people care about property crime and I don't think you should look down on them.

SF has 3-5x the property crime of most major cities in the United States. I imagine most violent crime is targeted (i.e. the victim is not a random person walking down the street), but property crime is scary because it can happen to the best of us, our friends and our family, in even the "safest" neighborhoods. We all know friends whose cars have been broken into. And it's easy to imagine --- what if my kids were at home during one of these home break-ins? (Note that burglaries are not classified as violent crime in SF)

Re: Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

#135

Post by stickfigure »

cemerick wrote: post #2

This news really highlights the confirmation bias that was in full bloom throughout the "discourse" around the initial reports of Lee's murder (e.g. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35448899 ). Everyone is so quick to jump on negative news about the rare violent crime in e.g. SF thanks to feelings about petty property crime that it's obviously impossible to have any kind of fact-based dialogue about policy. Worth…

It feels a bit like you're championing a narrative of "See, it's not so bad! You'll just get your stuff stolen and your car vandalized!" I wouldn't feel so smug about that.

I lived in SF for ~15 years, experienced multiple car breakins (when I had a car) and one weird guy who walked up to me on the street and said "I have a gun and I'm going to shoot you" (which I somehow calmly ignored). For the record, I didn't comment in that thread and I generally don't feel the need to bash SF in public - I just simply moved out.

Re: Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

#136

Post by nightski »

rootusrootus wrote: post #74
cemerick wrote: post #2

This news really highlights the confirmation bias that was in full bloom throughout the "discourse" around the initial reports of Lee's murder (e.g. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35448899 ). Everyone is so quick to jump on negative news about the rare violent crime in e.g. SF thanks to feelings about petty property crime that it's obviously impossible to have any kind of fact-based dialogue about policy. Worth…

Thanks for that. I admit to buying the narrative. Part of that is because my nearest city of any substance is Portland, and it's not especially violent. SF does look more violent compared to Portland, but objectively SF is actually just average or less. Lots of big cities are more violent[0]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b...

This data is from 2019, pre-pandemic and almost 5 years ago. Things have changed.

Re: Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

#137

Post by nobody9999 »

kneebonian wrote: post #47
cemerick wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What words _would_ you use to describe a city with fewer homicides per capita than almost all other major US cities? Might want to look at some relevant data; https://abc7news.com/san-francisco-crime-rate-bob-lee-sf-vio... has a handy chart halfway down, if you're not interested in reading.

I got a page not found error going to that link. Also the parent said "violent crime" not just homicides. In addition it is known that homicides among the homeless, of which SF is known to have many, are underreported. Plus there is plenty of property crime as well.

>I got a page not found error going to that link.

In that case, try this[0] one that another HNer posted. It even allows you to sort by type of crime.

> In addition it is known that homicides among the homeless, of which SF is known to have many, are underreported.

Uhhh...Have you ever been around a decomposing corpse? They're not so easy to hide or dispose of, and the population you're talking about isn't likely to have the resources to do so.

As such, you might want to check the "source" of information you're relying on for that assertion. That said, I could be completely wrong and SF's homeless community has a bustling trade in disposing of bodies. But that seems pretty unlikely, don't you think?

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b...

Edit: Added the missing link.

Re: Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

#138

Post by PaulWaldman »

It sounds like this information wasn't released publicly by the local authorities.

The article has a link to a LinkedIn profile. The writer indicates that the name and city of the LI profile matches the information on the person they were "told" was arrested this morning. Even the name of the company of the person indicated is explicitly referenced in the article.

My professional world doesn't allow for ambiguity. As a journalist, how sure do you need to be about the accuracy of this information before going public?

Re: Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

#139

Post by sidibe »

cemerick wrote: post #2

This news really highlights the confirmation bias that was in full bloom throughout the "discourse" around the initial reports of Lee's murder (e.g. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35448899 ). Everyone is so quick to jump on negative news about the rare violent crime in e.g. SF thanks to feelings about petty property crime that it's obviously impossible to have any kind of fact-based dialogue about policy. Worth…

Also we are all so proud of being rational and data driven while ignoring the actual murder rate in SF, which is well below average in America. Now you can say that it's high relative to the rest of the world but most people here want to shit on SF relative to the USA too.

Re: Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

#140

Post by positron6000 »

Varqu wrote: post #49
cemerick wrote: post #2

This news really highlights the confirmation bias that was in full bloom throughout the "discourse" around the initial reports of Lee's murder (e.g. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35448899 ). Everyone is so quick to jump on negative news about the rare violent crime in e.g. SF thanks to feelings about petty property crime that it's obviously impossible to have any kind of fact-based dialogue about policy. Worth…

[flagged]

That data is sourced from the FBI's UCR program (https://www.fbi.gov/how-we-can-help-you/more-fbi-services-an...) which relies on _voluntary reporting_ from law enforcement agencies.
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