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I wish GPT4 had never happened

chaudhry.notion.site

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Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#131

Post by danaris »

bitL wrote: post #75
brokencode wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If everybody is unemployed, then we’ll have plenty of time to to protest and demand major social changes. Hopefully we will have enough leverage to actually make it happen.

That only works when you aren't starved already. Many in 3rd world countries are experiencing it right now.

Yes, and guess who is posited to have their jobs disrupted by LLMs?

Knowledge workers. Programmers. White collar workers.

Y'know, the ones least likely to be starving before they get replaced by a glorified autocorrect.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#133

Post by wokwokwok »

Terretta wrote: post #122
wokwokwok wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By whom? ...and what will happen when every single person goes and tries to buy a 50" TV? Hm? Did we suddenly invent a magical TV making machine? Come on... this is Real Life, not Magical Fairy Land. We're not talking about a magical cornucopia that generates an endless amount of physical goods that can be used to accommodate the needs of every person. We're very specifically talking here about technological shift th…

> Did we suddenly invent a magical TV making machine? I mean ... we already have 3D printing, and car making robots, and electronics making robots. Most of the TV is robots. All that's needed is the equivalent of 3D printing that adds an extra step of "TV-making-robot"-making robots. One reason we don't have that is that it turns out the robot making robot costs more than certain as-yet non-globalized labor markets.…

How is this relevant to GPT4?

What you're saying was already true... so what. Now people are unemployed because of GPT4 we're going to start making free TVs for everyone?

Dang. That's sure not what happened when all those people lost their jobs during covid (eg. restaurant staff).

I guess this time will be different?

That's uh... well, very optimistic.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#134

Post by mlyle »

surgical_fire wrote: post #128
netbioserror wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What a profoundly naive opinion. Most people find meaning, fulfillment, even contentment in working, especially when the problems are engaging and the solutions produce value. Many people claim their lives would be better if they never had to work, but they are bullshitting themselves with childhood naivete. Not working is a sucking void of boredom, nihilism, hedonism, and despair. I've been through some of that befo…

You should come here and find some meaning painting my fence. While you are at it, the toilet in the basement is clogged, there is shit water all over the place. You could find meaning there too.

Just because I find reward in work, doesn't mean that all work is equally rewarding to me, or that I have an infinite desire for work.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#135

Post by bitwize »

Aaargh20318 wrote: post #29

The big oversight here is that Priya does not want a job , what Priya wants is an income . The point of life is not working, the point of life is to enjoy it. We should strive to eliminate as many jobs as we possibly can, the less we have to work the better it is. To make this possible we need to find a way to a new system that doesn't directly link labour with income .

To the reactionaries answering this post: Read your Kropotkin before posting, please and thank you.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#136

Post by j_crick »

hparadiz wrote: post #93

I asked GPT4 to write me a simple document. Took like 9 tries and I had to proof read it and make adjustments. And that's with a simple paragraph in a written language. Forget about doing the header and the footer properly. It's silly that I have to spell it out on HN of all places. Writing code is much more complex. There's a reason we call the job "Software Engineer". GPT doesn't know what it doesn't know. It doesn…

After all the AI doomsday cults took over some of the media lately, all I’ve been thinking was...

Before you say how the butlerian jihad absolutely definitely happens right goddamn tomorrow if we dOn’T sToP, try to create and successfully run an AI that would bake bread, or grow grapes and make wine, or run a good restaurant consistently day after day, year after year. If such an AI is possible then yes, perhaps we’re doomed, but even that is not a given.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#137

Post by blibble »

imdsm wrote: post #9
kaibee wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1) Show Priya how to use GPT4 to do her current job in 1/10th of the time. Why would I subsidize that as a business owner? I can fire 9/10ths of the people who do that job instead.

Train people to use GPT-related tech to become superhuman team members. You can do it all yourself, sure, but that doesn't scale. You can either train GPT-tech to use GPT to scale or train humans. Right now, reliability is the most difficult issue, so humans are essentially to ensuring the results are correct.

> Train people to use GPT-related tech to become superhuman team members.

then OpenAI either discontinue or slightly adjust the model such that it doesn't work now

there goes your business

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#138

Post by logicalmonster »

1) Chaudry's article is amazing in its lack of creative thinking. If people like Priya can be ~10 times more productive wielding some AI tools, that means that many companies can potentially produce 10 times as many products/services and make more things that will enrich peoples' lives. Though some people in some companies might be laid off, it doesn't necessarily mean that more people will be laid off than new jobs are created.

2) Chaudry ignores that you need a human in the loop to check an AI's work. You don't know that an AI's answer is always right. Even if it's perfect in 99% of cases, the answer could be jaw-droppingly destructive in that 1% of cases and make errors that even the dumbest human wouldn't make. Being grossly wrong even a small percentage of the time is far worse than a human making minor errors sometimes, and being slow all of the time.

3) Go and look at some of those historical picture sites to see images of an accounting department in some companies throughout 1900s America. Before computers, you'd see a fascinating image of a gigantic floor of an office building with desks filled with typewriters and calculators and tons of workers just adding things up and trying to store records in a bunch of file cabinets. Desktop Computers and spreadsheets were invented and all of a sudden an accountant could quickly update a few values in a spreadsheet and figure out an answer to a question far faster and more reliably than that entire floor of accountants. Did accounting software make the world worse and destroy jobs even though it made 1 accountant ridiculously more productive than they were in the past?

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#139

Post by danaris »

welshwelsh wrote: post #82
Beaver117 wrote: post #11

Just hurry up and automate everyone's jobs so we can get UBI

That's not what's going to happen. To benefit from automation, you need to take the initiative to integrate automation into your own workflow. The idea that someone else will automate your job, but you will somehow benefit is a fantasy. If we do get UBI, it won't replace lost wages from losing your job. Most of that money will go to the team at your company who set up GPT to do your work and the rest will be distribu…

> To benefit from automation, you need to take the initiative to integrate automation into your own workflow. The idea that someone else will automate your job, but you will somehow benefit is a fantasy.

This is Calvinist "only those who work deserve to live" bullshit.

> If we do get UBI, it won't replace lost wages from losing your job. Most of that money will go to the team at your company who set up GPT to do your work and the rest will be distributed among shareholders.

And this just doesn't make sense. Do you know what "UBI" even means? By definition, it goes to the people. All of them. Universally, even.

Even if your claim is that somehow your UBI will be sucked up by inflated costs, I don't see how it follows that it goes to your company.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#140

Post by blibble »

diatone wrote: post #112
hparadiz wrote: post #93

I asked GPT4 to write me a simple document. Took like 9 tries and I had to proof read it and make adjustments. And that's with a simple paragraph in a written language. Forget about doing the header and the footer properly. It's silly that I have to spell it out on HN of all places. Writing code is much more complex. There's a reason we call the job "Software Engineer". GPT doesn't know what it doesn't know. It doesn…

Maybe what you’ll see is a bigger distance between modes of the salary distribution for software engineers. Top end salaries for language model fluent high performers… and the rest. I know I’m simplifying and that there are many other factors at play in salaries, but my point is that language models are changing the cost structure of knowledge work. That is also the point of TFA. My advice: critically assess the cost…

> My advice: critically assess the cost structure of your job, and which parts neural networks will commodify. Then reposition yourself accordingly.

and by the time you've spent enough time training such that you may be useful to an employer: the model has improved and can do that too

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