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Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

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Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#131

Post by ben_w »

lmarcos wrote: post #80
carlmr wrote: post #29

Looking back we had one CS professor who in 2007 predicted we'd all be jobless in ten years, i.e. 2017. His prediction was based on the trends he was seeing at the time. But it wasn't even AI. Instead he made this prediction because he saw the rise of no-code tools replacing software developers because managers could finally cut out the pesky "translators", i.e. software developers. I said it then and I will say it n…

> I'd be surprised if the next step is "Hi, I'm an ideas guy, please give me an app that does Uber, for bicycles, but better." And even if AI is able to do that... Well, then anyone out there could become a UberCycle CEO. Which means: customer requirements will be much more complex by then and coming up with an entire product in 1h won't be enough anymore.

I currently expect that near-future version of the current type of language model — no major new breakthroughs — will be able to do just that.

I also expect, as you say, for this to create a lot of competition and increase the minimum quality that customers demand such that… heh, just realised, "Make Uber for bicycles" is basically going to be the next generation's pre-interview coding challenge to screen people that can't use AI effectively.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#132

Post by sokoloff »

Yoric wrote: post #104
5350-uiop-1130 wrote: post #83

People will always want things cheaper and faster (value) - looking at AI as "chat" or textbox or AI autocomplete is wrong imo - companies will come that utilise AI to deliver things faster and cheaper - you quote $10k and 1 month, we will do it in $1k 1 week - first to go is low value difficult to automate work which is already offshored and commoditised (basic webdev, graphic design) - later the middle tier of work…

> There will always be need for top tier leetcoders. but barrier to entry will get much higher. That's definitely a possibility. The barrier to entry won't be just in terms of how much you need to know, though, but also the fact that society as a whole might not require that many top tier leetcoders.

There will be an effectively endless demand for anyone who can create 10x the value while only demanding 3x the pay of the typical worker.

I don’t see AI changing that principle.

Most everyone who is “good at programming” today will be totally fine (and maybe even better off).

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#133

Post by gotstad »

carlmr wrote: post #29

Looking back we had one CS professor who in 2007 predicted we'd all be jobless in ten years, i.e. 2017. His prediction was based on the trends he was seeing at the time. But it wasn't even AI. Instead he made this prediction because he saw the rise of no-code tools replacing software developers because managers could finally cut out the pesky "translators", i.e. software developers. I said it then and I will say it n…

No-code and no-specification is confused all the time.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#134

Post by onion2k »

jstx1 wrote: post #65
onion2k wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've had LLMs for about 5 years so far in non-academic research. If we're talking 10 years out that means we're looking at tech that's about 1/3 through its development to date. Take any mature-ish technology that you use today and compare the version 1/3 through its life to the version you use now. Look at Chrome 20 compare to Chrome 111, or React 14 compared to React 18, or an iPhone 4 compared to an iPhone 14, or…

You can't extrapolate from an arbitrary selection of technologies and assume that LLMs will have the same trajectory. They could be like the iPhone, or they could be like self-driving cars which have been a year away from replacing all drivers for 10 years now.

You can't extrapolate from an arbitrary selection of technologies...

I'm not. I'm saying it's true for every technology. Everything gets better with time.

As for self driving cars, compare a DARPA challenge car from 2013 to a Waymo car today. It's massively better.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#135

Post by oulipo »

Of course what John says is true, it is important (and will always be) to understand how to build a good product, but the discussion about the future of work should also include a discussion about tax and redistribution, because we cannot let a few corporation take the riches from the rest of the world

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#136

Post by vasco »

dragonelite wrote: post #98
carlmr wrote: post #29

Looking back we had one CS professor who in 2007 predicted we'd all be jobless in ten years, i.e. 2017. His prediction was based on the trends he was seeing at the time. But it wasn't even AI. Instead he made this prediction because he saw the rise of no-code tools replacing software developers because managers could finally cut out the pesky "translators", i.e. software developers. I said it then and I will say it n…

Totally agree, maybe we should replace lower and middle management with AI. What i usually find is that lower and middle management is the reason shit isn't getting done. They are the messenger that don't want to get shot but want to get promoted. Why not let the people on the floor complain to a AI manager, the people on the floor know exactly what is killing their productivity. Like "yo ai manager, manually filling…

Managing people is going to be one of the last jobs to go away. The managers might go from managing 150k/year developers to managing 50k/year prompt "engineers", but someone is still going to be there to hire, fire and ask people to do things until AI enables truly full-stack companies-of-one as a majority case.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#137

Post by [deleted] »

carlmr wrote: post #29

Looking back we had one CS professor who in 2007 predicted we'd all be jobless in ten years, i.e. 2017. His prediction was based on the trends he was seeing at the time. But it wasn't even AI. Instead he made this prediction because he saw the rise of no-code tools replacing software developers because managers could finally cut out the pesky "translators", i.e. software developers. I said it then and I will say it n…

[deleted]

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#138

Post by sgu999 »

CSMastermind wrote: post #47

There's a weird phenomenon I've seen in a few domains of prideful ignorance. Backend engineers who proudly don't know how to write frontend code and vice versa. Professional engineers who refuse to learn how to use modern IDEs and monitoring platforms. People who don't know how to quickly prototype software as if building something without complete rigor is beneath them. People who refuse to learn or work in certain…

In my (small) experience I've seen that only once, a perfect specimen who fits your description. Unfortunately this person was acting-CTO of a startup. They decided that for a consumer product very close to what a smartphone can do, they didn't need an OS. So they started writing their build system with make only, then an OS, an IP stack, then a GUI, then added support for multithreading,... Of course Android existed, that was the end of the 2010s. The retail price of a cheap (and faster!) Android phone was even lower than our BOM. 4 years and 20M later, the company went bankrupt without having delivered the product it promised, but they had fun writing their "superior" software.

As long as people are in charge, we'll have plenty willing to pay technical workers who see themselves as artists.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#139

Post by 8organicbits »

Yoric wrote: post #108
austin-cheney wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then they can find employment in industries facing dire shortages like education and nursing. If the only goal is to put unqualified people into seats for a paycheck then it doesn’t matter what they do for income.

I agree with the general idea. However, retraining may become really hard. Especially if you're already, say, a 60 year old programmer (or business analyst, or executive assistant, etc.) who suddenly needs to become a (AI assisted) teacher or nurse.

Wouldn't most of those people look towards early retirement? We've failed as a society if 60 year olds end their career in one of the highest paying professions and they cant cover rent and food.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#140

Post by onion2k »

marginalia_nu wrote: post #58
onion2k wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've had LLMs for about 5 years so far in non-academic research. If we're talking 10 years out that means we're looking at tech that's about 1/3 through its development to date. Take any mature-ish technology that you use today and compare the version 1/3 through its life to the version you use now. Look at Chrome 20 compare to Chrome 111, or React 14 compared to React 18, or an iPhone 4 compared to an iPhone 14, or…

Eh, the difference is almost entirely in presentation. At the core a car today doesn't do significantly more than a car in 1962.

Superficially they're similar in the "they both have 4 wheels and an engine" sense, but you could examine literally any part of a car today compared to one from the 1950s and find huge improvements. The efficiency, safety, comfort, tech, manufacturing... Everything is better.
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