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Simulation of tsunami from dinosaur-killing asteroid that brought 2.5 mile waves

sos.noaa.gov

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Re: Simulation of tsunami from dinosaur-killing asteroid that brought 2.5 mile waves

#131

Post by krisoft »

senttoschool wrote: post #129
pmoriarty wrote: post #125

Here[1] is one of the most impressive asteroid impact simulations I have seen, from the Discover Channel's Miracle Planet. [1] - https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PENT_hnyO-o

In the video, they said an impact like that happened an estimated 6 times and each time, life sprung back. The whole surface was sterilized. This makes me think that if life comes back after that 6 times, then it must be pretty easy for life to start.

> This makes me think that if life comes back after that 6 times, then it must be pretty easy for life to start.

Or that they are wrong and the whole surface was not in fact sterilised. Or life survived somewhere other than on the surface (deep underground, underwater, or high in the sky).

Re: Simulation of tsunami from dinosaur-killing asteroid that brought 2.5 mile waves

#132

Post by SergeAx »

jacquesm wrote: post #40
fritzo wrote: post #26

> 30,000 times more initial energy than any recorded events As a statistician: this is why heavy-tailed modeling matters. Schools teach the finite-variance version of the Central Limit Theorem and students believe they live in a normal world. The real Central Limit Theorem [1] predicts large rare events following Lévy α-stable distributions. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stable_distribution#A_generali...

It would save quite a few ocean going ships if this was more appreciated. Those once-in-a-thousand-year-rogue-waves are much more frequent than once in a thousand years. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2006/jul/26/uknews But we're still designing ships as though they only happen once every thousand years because the cargo and the ship are insured and the crews are considered expendable.

Is there a statistics about ships sinking because of rogue waves?

Re: Simulation of tsunami from dinosaur-killing asteroid that brought 2.5 mile waves

#133

Post by oneoff786 »

fritzo wrote: post #26

> 30,000 times more initial energy than any recorded events As a statistician: this is why heavy-tailed modeling matters. Schools teach the finite-variance version of the Central Limit Theorem and students believe they live in a normal world. The real Central Limit Theorem [1] predicts large rare events following Lévy α-stable distributions. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stable_distribution#A_generali...

The central limit theorem applies to sample means, not individual events. I’m not sure it has any relevance to predicting the probability of a single large outlier tsunami

Re: Simulation of tsunami from dinosaur-killing asteroid that brought 2.5 mile waves

#134

Post by oneoff786 »

geuis wrote: post #12

Just to put the numbers in slightly easier to imagine numbers: imagine ocean waves about 13000 feet or 4 kilometers high. No, I can't really imagine it either. In San Francisco, the tallest building is the Salesforce Tower at 1070ft. The biggest wave would be about 13 times taller than that. I totally have trouble visualizing it, other than just looking up and up and up.

Don’t imagine it as a wave like one people surf on. Imagine it as a tide.

Re: Simulation of tsunami from dinosaur-killing asteroid that brought 2.5 mile waves

#135

Post by dasil003 »

senttoschool wrote: post #129
pmoriarty wrote: post #125

Here[1] is one of the most impressive asteroid impact simulations I have seen, from the Discover Channel's Miracle Planet. [1] - https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PENT_hnyO-o

In the video, they said an impact like that happened an estimated 6 times and each time, life sprung back. The whole surface was sterilized. This makes me think that if life comes back after that 6 times, then it must be pretty easy for life to start.

Seems likely that some single cell life could survive in some deep cave system

Re: Simulation of tsunami from dinosaur-killing asteroid that brought 2.5 mile waves

#136

Post by readams »

senttoschool wrote: post #129
pmoriarty wrote: post #125

Here[1] is one of the most impressive asteroid impact simulations I have seen, from the Discover Channel's Miracle Planet. [1] - https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PENT_hnyO-o

In the video, they said an impact like that happened an estimated 6 times and each time, life sprung back. The whole surface was sterilized. This makes me think that if life comes back after that 6 times, then it must be pretty easy for life to start.

There may not have been life before that. In the video they just say that if there was life it would have to begin anew.

Re: Simulation of tsunami from dinosaur-killing asteroid that brought 2.5 mile waves

#137

Post by r721 »

jacquesm wrote: post #40
fritzo wrote: post #26

> 30,000 times more initial energy than any recorded events As a statistician: this is why heavy-tailed modeling matters. Schools teach the finite-variance version of the Central Limit Theorem and students believe they live in a normal world. The real Central Limit Theorem [1] predicts large rare events following Lévy α-stable distributions. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stable_distribution#A_generali...

It would save quite a few ocean going ships if this was more appreciated. Those once-in-a-thousand-year-rogue-waves are much more frequent than once in a thousand years. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2006/jul/26/uknews But we're still designing ships as though they only happen once every thousand years because the cargo and the ship are insured and the crews are considered expendable.

Recent news story:

>One passenger was killed and four more injured after a "rogue wave" hit a cruise ship bound for Antarctica, travel company Viking has said.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-63846157 (Dec 2022)

Re: Simulation of tsunami from dinosaur-killing asteroid that brought 2.5 mile waves

#138

Post by 3D25157725 »

fsloth wrote: post #77
echelon wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Research at Imperial College, London, shows that far from being rare events, rogue waves can emerge frequently, and may be responsible for some of the 200 supertankers and container ships longer than 200m that have sunk in poor weather conditions in the past two decades. The loss of ten ships a year seems incredible to me. Surely "weather", if it were to blame, could be avoided. This amount of loss is steep. Is it…

'Surely "weather", if it were to blame, could be avoided.' AFAIK rogue waves are called 'rogue' due to their unpredictability.

Nomenclature aside, they're somewhat predictable in the sense that if the most dangerous rogue waves will typically happen in or near low preasure systems, and especially around strong currents, where you have wind-over-tide type nastiness.

So in the sense of trying not to die, avoid the Gulf and Agulhas currents, especially when a low blows through.

This coming from an amateur sailor. I believe freight shipping etc just plows through most weather systems in order to avoid delays.

Re: Simulation of tsunami from dinosaur-killing asteroid that brought 2.5 mile waves

#139

Post by InitialLastName »

oneoff786 wrote: post #134
geuis wrote: post #12

Just to put the numbers in slightly easier to imagine numbers: imagine ocean waves about 13000 feet or 4 kilometers high. No, I can't really imagine it either. In San Francisco, the tallest building is the Salesforce Tower at 1070ft. The biggest wave would be about 13 times taller than that. I totally have trouble visualizing it, other than just looking up and up and up.

Don’t imagine it as a wave like one people surf on. Imagine it as a tide.

Either way I'm imagining "The ocean is suddenly 4km higher than it normally is".

Re: Simulation of tsunami from dinosaur-killing asteroid that brought 2.5 mile waves

#140

Post by [deleted] »

oneoff786 wrote: post #134
geuis wrote: post #12

Just to put the numbers in slightly easier to imagine numbers: imagine ocean waves about 13000 feet or 4 kilometers high. No, I can't really imagine it either. In San Francisco, the tallest building is the Salesforce Tower at 1070ft. The biggest wave would be about 13 times taller than that. I totally have trouble visualizing it, other than just looking up and up and up.

Don’t imagine it as a wave like one people surf on. Imagine it as a tide.

[deleted]
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