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Rising rent, not poverty, is the real driver of homelessness

kcrw.com

131–140 of 376 posts

Re: Rising rent, not poverty, is the real driver of homelessness

#131

Imagine you're a municipality like San Francisco. You control all of the zoning regulations, and many of the permitting requirements. You have a AA+ credit rating, and even in today's higher rate environment, you can borrow billions of dollars at 6%. You already own oodles of land. You can build to whatever height you want within reason, because you control the zoning, and you even control many of the ordinances that…

Sounds like you're proposing government run high-rise housing projects. Can you name any that are not dangerous, crime-ridden hellholes?

Singapore

Re: Rising rent, not poverty, is the real driver of homelessness

#132
The homeless debate, especially around housing, has become a nightmare of semantic creep and rising metricism [1].

Metricism is the tendency to focus on measurable things; in principle a noble goal, but more often than not you can't actually measure the thing you're interested in, so you measure something similar and then pretend you're measuring the thing you want, and when you're done, you've implemented solutions which reduce your metric but have no effect on the underlying problem.

What is the problem of "homelessness"? Is it transient homelessness, where people, through a run of bad luck or circumstance, find themselves unable to afford housing, but otherwise are functional in society?

Or is the problem the much more visible problem of mentally ill and otherwise unstable individuals wandering the streets and pushing kids on to subway tracks?

The latter is the homeless problem that people care about (I mean, we are human, we care about both, but if I had to choose which one I'd rather fix, as a New Yorker, the latter takes priority). Fixing this problem, though, is incredibly hard -- there's the intersection of human rights, involuntary confinement, and the otherwise incredible complexity of managing mental health in a free society.

But this is SOOOOOOO hard to measure! It's much easier to just measure the people who are "unhoused", pretend you're solving the "homeless problem", and show that you can make the numbers go down. The problem being solved by increasing housing and lowering rents is not the problem of people walking down the subway screaming about electricity and knocking cell phones out of people's hands -- he is more than a couple of rent payments away from being okay.

[1] metricism is my own neologism; closest analogy is James C. Scott's "legibility" or Goodhart's "observed statistical regularity" or even the drunk "looking for the keys where the light is good" but I'm more specifically concerned about fetishizing around metrics specifically.

Re: Rising rent, not poverty, is the real driver of homelessness

#133
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Especially for a city that is explicitly progressive, why the "all rapid change is bad, it must take decades or centuries, otherwise it's not natural" approach? Germany's large cities have similar issues where they don't want to start building new districts because it'd be artificial and not naturally grown building by building. And it's better to have rents double every 10 years, apparently. I don't get the "why", b…

Well - to be more clear - SF is socially progressive. It is incredibly fiscally conservative. It is part of Silicon Valley - a neoliberal paradise. The whole area is incredibly classically liberal and not socialist leaning at all... After all - becoming a tycoon is everyone's wet dream there.

> SF is socially progressive. It is incredibly fiscally conservative

Wouldn't "fiscally conservative" mean low taxes and low spending?

I believe SF spends about $57,000 annually per homeless person which doesn't sound very fiscally conservative.

Of course a lot of that money goes missing while being funneled through the homeless industrial complex...

Re: Rising rent, not poverty, is the real driver of homelessness

#134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, just average people, who built the community over time into something desirable, that were promised with zoning laws that it would be the type of community (single family homes, etc) that they wanted, and that then dedicated the majority of their lifetime earning power to purchase a home there. There are how many acres of land in this country? Why do you have a right to overrule the will of people in one comparat…

No one in San Francisco today built it to what it is. That city hasn’t changed in any substantial way since before 1960. It’s long been coasting off its past success.

I'd say removing the interstate from the Embarcadero and Hayes Valley is a substantial improvement, but your point still stands. That was politically unpopular and required a major earthquake.

Re: Rising rent, not poverty, is the real driver of homelessness

#135

Imagine you're a municipality like San Francisco. You control all of the zoning regulations, and many of the permitting requirements. You have a AA+ credit rating, and even in today's higher rate environment, you can borrow billions of dollars at 6%. You already own oodles of land. You can build to whatever height you want within reason, because you control the zoning, and you even control many of the ordinances that…

The city government doesn't want to solve the issue.

Re: Rising rent, not poverty, is the real driver of homelessness

#136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, they are. What do you think "anti-gentrification activism" boils down to, in practice? Build more and drive prices down? Of course not, the activists will conveniently tell you that this makes gentrification worse ! Which totally defies economic logic: there's only so much demand in the world for places like Manhattan!

> Which totally defies economic logic: there's only so much demand in the world for places like Manhattan! How much demand "in the world" to live in Manhattan do you think there is? The more the price drops, of course, the demand will go up. So how much "in the world" at both current prices and also if, say, prices went down by 5%? 10%? 50%? 75%? I think there's enough currently-unmet demand to keep the prices from f…

> How much demand "in the world" to live in Manhattan do you think there is?

Probably somewhere between 4-5 billion people I'd guess.

Re: Rising rent, not poverty, is the real driver of homelessness

#138

I’ve lived on the streets and worked with homeless charities for years and years. I am extremely skeptical this is case and for those whom it is true, I expect them to fall into the class of “transient homeless” who experience it for a short period.

Transient homeless (those who have fallen upon hard times, and may still have a job, but no longer have a place for their family to live) make up around 80% of the homeless population. Solving that would be a huge win for society.

Sure, but not really the policy outcome that people are thinking of when they talk about solving the "homeless problem". The guy passed on in the subway car next to his own feces is not going to be helped in any way by these policies.

There are no good solutions here that respect the rights of the individual and also our collective right to live in a civil society. Involuntarily detention through the criminal justice system (horrifying) or the mental health system (completely dehumanizing) are the best tools we have, other than having compassionate people who will devote time and effort and individual attention to the victims of mental health or pathological substance abuse problems.

Re: Rising rent, not poverty, is the real driver of homelessness

#139

Imagine you're a municipality like San Francisco. You control all of the zoning regulations, and many of the permitting requirements. You have a AA+ credit rating, and even in today's higher rate environment, you can borrow billions of dollars at 6%. You already own oodles of land. You can build to whatever height you want within reason, because you control the zoning, and you even control many of the ordinances that…

Yeah, the thing I always say about the people who complain about tech workers and gentrification in a place like San Francisco is like, look, if you can't figure out how to gain from an influx of wealthy, highly-educated, low-criminality, nerdy tech workers, then that's really on you. What a gift! Any city would be lucky to have that "problem." You have to actively work to make that a negative (by, say, refusing to a…

> if you can't figure out how to gain from an influx of wealthy, highly-educated, low-criminality, nerdy tech workers, then that's really on you

Oh, people are gaining from them. It's just that the people gaining are generally the people who already have political power.

Someone who owns their home doesn't mind seeing land values quadruple, thanks to this influx of free tech money.

Someone who is renting, so that they can save up money for a downpayment, whose service industry wages have not quadrupled in that period of time minds very, very much.

Re: Rising rent, not poverty, is the real driver of homelessness

#140

Imagine you're a municipality like San Francisco. You control all of the zoning regulations, and many of the permitting requirements. You have a AA+ credit rating, and even in today's higher rate environment, you can borrow billions of dollars at 6%. You already own oodles of land. You can build to whatever height you want within reason, because you control the zoning, and you even control many of the ordinances that…

Sounds like you're proposing government run high-rise housing projects. Can you name any that are not dangerous, crime-ridden hellholes?

Singapore.
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