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Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events

news.ycombinator.com

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Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events

#133

Post by bbeckhardt »

bombcar wrote: post #109

How does NASA landing or not on the moon cause an insurance loss to someone?

That was more of a fun one suggested by our users...though there may be some extraterrestrials who would want to hedge against that, once we can operate outside of the US :)

Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events

#134

Post by wanderingmind »

Is it possible to chain multiple linked events and trade? For example, if I want to place a bet on inflation going to 15% in next 6 months or that the BLS will change the CPI composition/metric. Although I might expect the real inflation to go high as 15%, I might also expect politicians to change the goalpost as a response.

Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events

#136

Post by benben613 »

tmansour wrote: post #80
faangiq wrote: post #51

This is one of the most common startup ideas. It doesn’t work. Been tried dozens of times. But seems to have an unlimited supply of greater fools who will invest.

You're right! Lots of people have tried this before. The main source of failure historically has been regulation. We took the approach of addressing the elephant in the room first. We spent 3 years to crack the regulation case and we got federal approval to make sure we have the potential to get this market to its full potential.

Did Kalshi do anything to stop others from operating in this space as well?

Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events

#137

Post by weixiyen »

barnbuilder wrote: post #31

> Before Kalshi, markets that allowed you to trade on economically relevant events were illegal or unregulated. Totally untrue. PredictIt was legal and regulated and well-loved for many years, operating with the permission of the CFTC under a no-action letter. Then Kalshi hired former CFTC commissioner Brian Quintenz and soon, PredictIt was suddenly deemed by the CFTC to have committed still-unenumerated violations o…

I think they did the same to Polymarket in the US.

Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events

#138

Post by froogle »

Prediction markets are a fantastic concept with a ton of value I think for everyone. So I wish companies in the field success and I hope they thrive despite regulators doing their best to destroy them, like PredictIt.

I think it's a shame Kalshi has managed to get their hooks into the CFTC and, rather than lobby to open the field to all prediction markets, instead lobbied for narrow permissions to operate only their stuff (in a limited, less useful way) while killing their competitors.

It's a terrible way to operate a business and it's a black stain on YC for funding a company using these kinds of underhanded methods.

I can only hope the regulatory environment improves and we get some improvements at the CFTC, but I think anyone familiar with US government institutions would bet against it. Perhaps someone could open a question about it on a prediction market.

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