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EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

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Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#131

Post by redox99 »

chrisco255 wrote: post #93
guidedlight wrote: post #8

Given EV’s should have price parity with ICE by 2025-2027, I think its obvious that EV adoption should accelerate. Unless you are purchasing a very cheap sub-$20k car, EV’s should become the only choice by 2030. https://insideevs.com/news/506465/evs-price-parity-europe-20...

Unless they improve the recharge speed or dramatically improve thr power density, we're gonna have ICEs for a long time. Electric vehicles are not good in cold weather, they so far have not proven themselves to be capable of long haul towing (battery life drops off precipitously while towing), there is not enough charging ports or parking spots for hundreds of millions of cars to recharge, emergency vehicles cannot d…

> emergency vehicles cannot depend on EV (you can't wait for an ambulance to recharge for 45 minutes)

That seems pretty irrelevant? It's not like you have only one ambulance.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#132

Post by snuxoll »

endisneigh wrote: post #74

I love EVs. That being said I wish someone would make an enclosed bicycle/motorcycle that costs less than $2000. Something like that which can go 30mph and had space for 2 days of groceries would be enough for me to eliminate my car all together. I'm cobbling something similar now with a Class 3 cargo ebike, but rain sucks =/ The idealist in me says that electric ebikes could eliminate most of Americas problems in on…

> Bike infrastructure can be used for walking.

Please, no more of this. Bicycles should be on their own dedicated right of way, mixing them with cars is dangerous for cyclists, but mixing bikes with pedestrians is dangerous for pedestrians.

Multi-use paths are fine for recreation, but they are not transit infrastructure and should not be treated as such.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#133

Post by profmonocle »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #32
crooked-v wrote: post #10

I suspect it would be even faster if there was a charging option for the many people in cities with their cars in shared garages, even one as simple as just having a lot of 240V outlets. It feels like something that's rather overlooked at the moment.

Agreed, but I think this is likely going to be a "tipping point" type of change. That is, overall EV share is still relatively low, but very soon not having charging at apartment buildings will be a non-starter. I'd easily bet that in 5 years you'll see new condo/apartment developments where every space has a charging option.

> but very soon not having charging at apartment buildings will be a non-starter.

My HOA has been discussing this and they came to the same conclusion - not installing chargers in the garage will make it very difficult to sell condos here in 5-ish years.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#134

Post by osigurdson »

sandworm101 wrote: post #84
ThunderSizzle wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your facts are inconvenient and will probably just be dismissed sadly. EVs need to win by being better without more risk, not by trying to ban people currently using ICEs.

More inconvenient facts. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Fort_McMurray_wildfire https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7E_OLgC4nV0 88,000 people in perhaps 50,000 vehicles all taking the ONE road out of town. Some kind companies setup fuel trucks by the roadside to top up tanks. Gas delivery can be scaled up and even made portable in an emergency. Had those 50,000 vehicles all been EVs, tens of thousands of people would…

An EV makes a great second car in Canada but the long distances and cold weather are problematic for current EV technology. Hopefully that improves relatively soon.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#135

Post by buu700 »

fy20 wrote: post #113
peyton wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most Norwegian BEV owners also own an ICE for the winter. Adoption is high due to incentives.

More importantly, most of the places where people live in Norway are not actually that cold. In Oslo it hasn't dropped below -20C / -4F since 2010.

Global warming came in handy for once.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#136

Post by elihu »

sandworm101 wrote: post #105
chrisco255 wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless they improve the recharge speed or dramatically improve thr power density, we're gonna have ICEs for a long time. Electric vehicles are not good in cold weather, they so far have not proven themselves to be capable of long haul towing (battery life drops off precipitously while towing), there is not enough charging ports or parking spots for hundreds of millions of cars to recharge, emergency vehicles cannot d…

>> Unless they improve the recharge speed or dramatically improve thr power density That may be the doomsday scenario. Imagine we had a new battery tech today that could cram 1000+miles into a car in say 5 minutes. EV sales would spike. ICEs would disappear. Then everyone would get their new EV home ... and the national electricity grid would collapse.

It's not like everyone who drives an EV recharges their full battery capacity every day. And besides, home charges are typically level-2 charging from a 220V outlet, and they charge overnight. DC fast charging in homes basically doesn't exist, because the expense of the electrical service you'd need to do that doesn't make sense unless you're putting the fast charger somewhere where it will be heavily used.

Grid upgrades are a thing that's going to have to happen, but I think the concern is kind of overblown. It's not like everyone is going to switch to EVs at the same time, and over the course of a decade or two the utilities can use the increased revenue they're collecting to upgrade their infrastructure as needed.

We're going to need more electricity production to offset the increased demand. Some of that might be offset by residential solar.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#137

Post by eyelidlessness »

snuxoll wrote: post #132
endisneigh wrote: post #74

I love EVs. That being said I wish someone would make an enclosed bicycle/motorcycle that costs less than $2000. Something like that which can go 30mph and had space for 2 days of groceries would be enough for me to eliminate my car all together. I'm cobbling something similar now with a Class 3 cargo ebike, but rain sucks =/ The idealist in me says that electric ebikes could eliminate most of Americas problems in on…

> Bike infrastructure can be used for walking. Please, no more of this. Bicycles should be on their own dedicated right of way, mixing them with cars is dangerous for cyclists, but mixing bikes with pedestrians is dangerous for pedestrians. Multi-use paths are fine for recreation, but they are not transit infrastructure and should not be treated as such.

As both a cyclist and pedestrian, I definitely prefer bikes off the sidewalk. Even conscientious cyclists who call “on your left” or whatever routinely underestimate the necessary reaction time and overestimate how far their voice will carry. Even if they get both of those right, they’ve frequently terrified my pup by just being faster and louder and larger than anything on foot she’s ever met. I’ve had to return home and restart our entire morning/evening because of this countless times.

I don’t feel as strongly about separated bike infrastructure, mainly because my experience with it is that it’s more dangerous than riding in auto lanes, and that it creates an illusion of separation that both heightens that danger and heightens the dangerous attitudes of drivers trying to navigate it. I’m sure it’s better where the infrastructure is better, but where I live I choose to ride my bike away from those accommodations and right in traffic with the cars and drivers who flow together with me.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#138

Post by sandworm101 »

epistasis wrote: post #100
sandworm101 wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> If people want to live in remote areas and pollute a ton Well... if you want lumber, minerals, metals, petrochemicals and food, then you too will need people living "in remote areas".

Seems fine as long as they pay to clean up their mess, which means that their costs will be higher which they pass on.

The next time I see a farmer I'll pass along that it is "fine" that he continue growing the food people eat. He will appreciate having permission so to do.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#139

Post by snuxoll »

stevenwoo wrote: post #97
brnt wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's mandatory here in Europe, if you care about being road-legal.

It depends on the state one lives in the USA. For instance in Texas, a garage inspects your vehicle once a year on basic functionality for it to qualify for a sticker one puts on the windshield (automatic ticket if law enforcement stops you with one out of date). In California, one has to get a smog inspection every so often to qualify for the sticker on the license plate to indicate one has paid one's vehicle tax fo…

Here in Idaho traditional ICE vehicles need emissions testing every few years after a certain age, but hybrids, PHEV’s and BEV’s are exempt. No other inspection required to renew your tags every year.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#140

Post by JumpCrisscross »

epistasis wrote: post #100
sandworm101 wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> If people want to live in remote areas and pollute a ton Well... if you want lumber, minerals, metals, petrochemicals and food, then you too will need people living "in remote areas".

Seems fine as long as they pay to clean up their mess, which means that their costs will be higher which they pass on.

There are better optimisations for emissions than chasing farmers and miners.
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