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Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views

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Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views

#131
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you have 7 photos, only 4 of them clearly confirm what you want to say, 1 likely contradicting it, and you're happy to take this as a universal? I also think your analogy doesn't hold for another reason. Look at the last study. This study is intentionally juking their numbers. They "learned" from their first study and removed every single sample that contradicted what they want to 'prove', magnified those that con…

> So you have 7 photos, only 4 of them clearly confirm what you want to say, 1 likely contradicting it, and you're happy to take this as a universal? I also think your analogy doesn't hold for another reason I'm sorry; I disagree and I don't think you understand the statistics. > Look at the last study. This is another new goalpost. I am not willing to discuss further.

Imagine for a moment that this study was trying to demonstrate that e.g. climate change was primarily caused by solar variation a la Willie Wei-Hock Soon [1]. And he provided the exact same quality of evidence, and the exact same "issues." There is zero chance you would now be claiming this to be a "universal" in spite of the exact same quality, or lack thereof, of evidence.

I was not shifting any goalposts, but simply referencing more evidence on the fundamental issue: that this study was intentionally biased and misleading with the goal of "proving", by any means necessary, a conclusion of which the authors had 0 interest in genuinely testing.

As I suspect we'll be wrapping up, I simply want to thank you for the interesting and lively discussion on this issue. It's rare two people can disagree on the internet for more than a few posts without things devolving into 'You're a poopy face.' 'No, you!'

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willie_Soon

Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views

#132
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So you have 7 photos, only 4 of them clearly confirm what you want to say, 1 likely contradicting it, and you're happy to take this as a universal? I also think your analogy doesn't hold for another reason I'm sorry; I disagree and I don't think you understand the statistics. > Look at the last study. This is another new goalpost. I am not willing to discuss further.

Imagine for a moment that this study was trying to demonstrate that e.g. climate change was primarily caused by solar variation a la Willie Wei-Hock Soon [1]. And he provided the exact same quality of evidence, and the exact same "issues." There is zero chance you would now be claiming this to be a "universal" in spite of the exact same quality, or lack thereof, of evidence. I was not shifting any goalposts, but simp…

> Imagine for a moment that this study was trying to demonstrate that e.g. climate change was primarily caused by solar variation a la Willie Wei-Hock Soon [1]. And he provided the exact same quality of evidence, and the exact same "issues."

I suspect we don't agree on what the "exact same quality of evidence" would be.

But the prior probability matters, too. A trial where a die looks slightly-biased-towards-6 (with weak significance) after 3 prior trials where it looked strongly-biased-towards-1 (with high significance) doesn't do much to change our mind about the previous findings.

Base rate fallacy, yada yada yada.

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