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Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

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Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#131

Post by lazide »

belorn wrote: post #112

If we just went based on the political message in the past then Germany could just use that massive amount of solar and wind they have been subsidizing for the last few decades, and for heating they could simply use that green hydrogen. Both of those were supposed to be both cheaper than any other for of energy. More realistically, this is a time where most countries in EU should be scrambling to throw money at new e…

The political message was always wishful thinking - even with Germany’s massive spend, there was never a realistic way to replace baseline heating needs in the winter without spending at least 10x more.

Most off grid systems have some sort of generator for the long stretches of cloudy days, and in a cold climate, pretty much everyone uses fossil fuels for heating off grid due to the energy density, reliability, and low cost.

Anything else starts being really cost prohibitive if you do the math on ‘I get X amount of heat during these long tail scenarios or the pipes burst/I freeze’.

Physics is a bitch.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#132

Post by rebuilder »

leereeves wrote: post #92
akmarinov wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Solution #1 - we already tried that, we gave Putin Crimea in 2014, everything was chill for 7-8 years and now we have this mess. If we give him Donetsk and Luhansk, he'll just be back for more + Moldova in 5-6 years.

In 5-6 years, Europe should be able to free themselves of Russian energy and build a military capable of standing up to Russia. (Ukraine is almost managing the latter on their own.)

This assumes that, if allowed to win in Ukraine, Russia would return to normal gas and oil deliveries. I’m not sure there is a way back to regular trade now, Russia has essentially, if not literally, declared war on much more than just Ukraine.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#133

Post by Wowfunhappy »

oxff wrote: post #113
Wowfunhappy wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who is to say Russia will stop at Ukraine? They clearly weren't satisfied with Crimea. Is Poland safe? Is Germany? I don't mean to be alarmist but we've seen similar scenarios play out in Europe before. This isn't merely about what's morally correct, it's also about self-interest.

The sanctions do nothing to stop this. They're not acting like they're a marketing firm that gets shocked because of some red in the GDP, they're on a war footing. That will only react to, you guessed it, equal force (war).

I mean, are you suggesting we go to war with Russia directly? That's not going to help with the natural gas shortage.

I hope it doesn't come to that, but it could some day, I don't know, obviously if Russia attacks... well, in the meantime, I don't think we should be giving Russia more money it can use to further develop its military.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#134

Post by parkingrift »

bamboozled wrote: post #97
credit_guy wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I generally despise Trump, but here he looks like a visionary and the German diplomats look like morons (in hindsight, at least).

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day :) Have to hand it to him this time...he was so right.

Obama said the same things.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#135

Post by Sholmesy »

listless wrote: post #62
nisa wrote: post #18

To get some perspective why this is such a hotly debated topic - just got my heating bill for the last year - just a small 2 person flat in a small town - most flats in Germany are heated by gas one way or another - 700€/year with 5.2ct/kWh for 2021 - current market is more like 15ct/kWh and will probably rise. With the rise in rent prices in the last years this could push quite a bit of poor / lower middle class peo…

Serious question here - I swear I'm not trolling and I've been asking myself this same question...' Would you be fine with it if you were on the margin? I have this same attitude about inflation in the US and rising interest rates. Good - we need to get the situation under control. But I'm not living on the margin. It affects me, but not really. I'll be fine. So I don't really have any skin in the game here. Not yet.

This is a genuine question to ask for a lot of policy decisions that directly affect the person asked. I think it's fair to say "no I wouldn't be fine with it if I were on the margin", but still think it's a good idea. What is good for the individual, may be bad for society in the long term.

Which is a really callus and harsh position to take.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#136

Post by madengr »

cpursley wrote: post #72
nisa wrote: post #18

To get some perspective why this is such a hotly debated topic - just got my heating bill for the last year - just a small 2 person flat in a small town - most flats in Germany are heated by gas one way or another - 700€/year with 5.2ct/kWh for 2021 - current market is more like 15ct/kWh and will probably rise. With the rise in rent prices in the last years this could push quite a bit of poor / lower middle class peo…

Why are you and your friends okay with this? The increase in energy prices due to EU sanctions are making the Russian state fabulously wealthy right now. Russia has alternative customers, y'all don't have alternative suppliers. If the EU doesn't come to their senses and embrace realpolitik, they are looking at literal deindustrialization and a plunge into mass poverty and social unrest. BMWs aren't built nor homes he…

No post body was provided.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#137

Post by bamboozled »

oxff wrote: post #84
V__ wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this argument is very short-term thinking. Letting Russia take Ukraine would have enormous security implications long term. I mean the lack of sanctions, hasn't stopped Russia after taking Crimea, so it's only fair to assume Ukraine wouldn't be the end to Russia's (Putin's) expansion either. They implied so many times. Their enormous investments in the destabilization of foreign politics, have made it a very…

> Letting Russia take Ukraine would have enormous security implications long term Yes, I am not disputing that. I stated that the actions of EU (self-sanctions) have not, and will not affect whether or no Russia takes Ukraine though, this was the entire point of my post. It is part of what makes them so absurd. An action that would affect would be to deploy there via strategic military action, but which our Moral Lea…

> I stated that the actions of EU (self-sanctions) have not, and will not affect whether or no Russia takes Ukraine though, this was the entire point of my post. It is part of what makes them so absurd.

What credentials, intel do you have to back this up? I've heard a lot of evidence to support the contrary. The sanctions are working, Russia is just telling us they're not and that's what the rooble is so highly valued right now.

The ruble is worthless because no one accepts it.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#138

Post by TheGigaChad »

88840-8855 wrote: post #28
toomuchtodo wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Constraint is a forcing function for ingenuity." Renewables are going to ramp, floating LNG import terminals are already en route (to add capacity to the existing 24 in EU countries), and industrial processes requiring LNG will make due with less or seek alternatives. Europe will place a small number of coal plants on temporary standby, and they will only add 1.3% to EU emissions annually, even in the worst-case sce…

How will renewables help this winter? All the stuff you describe are need at least 2 years. At least. Plus, they are expensive. Energy will come with a huge premium in Europe. This is the time that Putin needs to build the pipelines to other countries. Let us not forget that NOBODY is against the war: not a single South American, not any African country, not China, not India. This is a US/Canada/Europe/South Korea/Ja…

No post body was provided.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#139

Post by kennywinker »

cpursley wrote: post #72
nisa wrote: post #18

To get some perspective why this is such a hotly debated topic - just got my heating bill for the last year - just a small 2 person flat in a small town - most flats in Germany are heated by gas one way or another - 700€/year with 5.2ct/kWh for 2021 - current market is more like 15ct/kWh and will probably rise. With the rise in rent prices in the last years this could push quite a bit of poor / lower middle class peo…

Why are you and your friends okay with this? The increase in energy prices due to EU sanctions are making the Russian state fabulously wealthy right now. Russia has alternative customers, y'all don't have alternative suppliers. If the EU doesn't come to their senses and embrace realpolitik, they are looking at literal deindustrialization and a plunge into mass poverty and social unrest. BMWs aren't built nor homes he…

Not OP but i suspect they’re ok with it because the other option is giving in to an authoritarian regime that is intent on expansion. I.e. war on their doorstep.

The realpolitik is speeding up the transition off oil and gas, and energy independence.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#140

Post by usrn »

bamboozled wrote: post #122

I love the absolute BS of the world in 2022. The whole world is supposed to be off fossil fuels by now, and here we are hoping and praying Germany and the rest of the EU gets enough fossil fuels to burn this winter. If humanity was to look at itself in the mirror, it would see an image stupid freaking hypocrite clown. Solar, Nuclear, Wind, get after it, it's so late now it almost feels like a waste of time...

Part of the reason Germany is still stuck on fossil fuels was the ultimatums of the environmentalists that killed their nuclear power. IMO if they really care about the environment they need to chill out so people can work out how to transition. Hard rules like this will first result in desperation which causes people to make sub-optimal choices like you're seeing now and eventually economic collapse which will absolutely destroy the environment (think of all the messes the USSR made when it fell apart.) Whatever regime replaces the one that causes this probably will care a lot less about the environment too.
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