Russian gas flows to Europe • Hacker News Board

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#131

Post by jhgb » Sun, Jul 10, 2022, 9:42 PM UTC

fulvioterzapi wrote: post #94

Arnt wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems irrational because that's not what's happening. Those power plants can't be run next winter. Contracts have been terminated, replacement parts with long lead times haven't been ordered, maintenance windows have been shifted in anticipation of the shutdown. It's possible to write new contracts and order new parts, so they could be back in operation, maybe sometime late in 2023. But that would still leave them…

> Contracts have been terminated, replacement parts with long lead times haven't been ordered, maintenance windows have been shifted in anticipation of the shutdown. Sounds like a long list of lame excuses.

"Excuses"? If you know that your company shuts down one year from now, why would you be ordering spare parts for five years into the future? Especially if you've known that date for twenty years like Germans did?

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#132

Post by hgazx » Sun, Jul 10, 2022, 9:42 PM UTC

hash872 wrote: post #114

_xnmw wrote: post #93

It's far too late to change this. You cannot restructure the energy sources of a whole continent in a few months or even years. This could've been fixed if the West had understood and reacted appropriately to the magnitude of the Russian threat about 10 years ago, as foreseen by academics like Stephen Cohen and businessmen like Bill Browder, instead of blindly falling for its own hubristic self-delusion (which contin…

1. 'The West' wasn't hubristic, Europe was. The US has been telling Europe to get off of Russian gas & oil for decades, under multiple administrations. Both parties have been extremely clear about this for over two decades now. 'I'm astounded at how many people continue to live in the 3rd fantasy of believing Ukraine could somehow "defeat" Russia while still avoiding WW3' 2. The US lost in Vietnam without using nukes…

> The US has been telling Europe to get off of Russian gas & oil for decades, under multiple administrations

Yeah and buy American liquefied gas instead. Thanks but no thanks.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#133

Post by AzzieElbab » Sun, Jul 10, 2022, 9:43 PM UTC

shmerl wrote: post #7

How fast did the rest of Europe cut ties with Nazi Germany after World War II started? Current level of feeding Russia's war machine looks bizarre.

Not as fast as you believe, and no one really cut ties with early USSR despite all its atrocities

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#134

Post by throwrqX » Sun, Jul 10, 2022, 9:44 PM UTC

_xnmw wrote: post #93

It's far too late to change this. You cannot restructure the energy sources of a whole continent in a few months or even years. This could've been fixed if the West had understood and reacted appropriately to the magnitude of the Russian threat about 10 years ago, as foreseen by academics like Stephen Cohen and businessmen like Bill Browder, instead of blindly falling for its own hubristic self-delusion (which contin…

It could definitely be changed in years if there was sufficient will to do it, unfortunately there isn't because despite all the drama nothing has really changed except prices have gone up a bit. If people started going after politicians and CEOs with violence I am sure they would figure out a way soon enough.

I definitely agree about American hubris though, they had the opportunity in the 1940s to use nuclear weapons against the Soviets to prevent them from getting nuclear weapons but the risk avoiders and pacifists won out, those who thought America would win without war because they were under God or because their system was better or something of those ideals. I guess that ultimately was true and it did potentially save lots of lives but culturally & militarily speaking I don't see modern Russia being much different from the USSR.

Whether you consider that Ukraine can 'win' the war depends on your definition of 'win'. They could certainly stop them from taking any more than what they currently have, perhaps even take back significant parts of Ukraine, but it would require much more military support than is currently given. The US seems content on draining Russia without really having them lose much of the territory they have gained.

I am not quite sure why people think you could just 'settle' with Russia. Settling would only happen when Putin wants it to happen, and from his own speeches and writings it is clear he wants to restore Russia to how the USSR was geopolitically. I remember even 5 years ago some Russian military guys I knew who would joke about one day being able to have a second try of mass raping German and Polish women (WW2 being the first) so in my view I doubt settling would do much except delay further ambition of Putin.

I very much doubt that Putin would be willing to go to WW3 over Ukraine though no matter how many military defeats he had in Ukraine, he isn't stupid and Ukraine isn't worth that much.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#135

Post by londons_explore » Sun, Jul 10, 2022, 9:44 PM UTC

Gas to europe isn't the disaster many forsee.

If Europe loses gas supplies tomorrow, they would:

* Build coal gasification plants (they're fairly simple things, and don't require much special equipment - there are lots that already exist unused and are over 100 years old). Switch about a quarter of towns to 'town gas' rather than natural gas.

* cut down heating to only about half of buildings - 'stay with a friend' will be policy for the winter months.

* Switch off street lighting and other big non-critical electricity users.

* Shut down energy heavy industries - much of this has already happened because energy prices mean it isn't economical to make glass, pottery, aluminium, steel, etc.

* Don't interfere much with market prices - allow them to go sky high. But give each premises an energy credit approximately enough to heat and light one room for free - after that you pay sky high prices.

Using that strategy, current reserves would last 1 year at least.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#136

Post by jhgb » Sun, Jul 10, 2022, 9:44 PM UTC

ajsnigrutin wrote: post #116

jhgb wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And? What is the relevance of that? Not shutting them off wouldn't in any way influence the industrial and heating heating usages of natural gas in Germany which are the main problem.

Yes, you can heat homes using electricity, thus saving gas for things, where you cannot use electricity.

You won't heat homes using electricity more efficiently than with direct heaters without significantly redesigning them, so all this would do would be using even more primary energy than before. This is going to happen over time as nZEBs according to the 2010 and 2012 EU directives are going to replace old buildings in the building stock, but you can't make that happen overnight.

Also, since the origin of the electricity doesn't matter in this case, to say that you'd need to not shut down those nuclear plants is clearly wrong since you could just use the currently underutilized coal plants to get exactly the same effect -- except the lack of electricity is clearly not a problem.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#137

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Jul 10, 2022, 9:45 PM UTC

_ph_ wrote: post #99

qbasic_forever wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Freezing to death this winter because your source of fuel oil is now your geopolitical enemy seems like a more pressing problem than the tiny amount of waste 3 plants will generate decades from now.

To prevent "freezing to death" would require heating, not electricity, which Germany has enough. It is the house heating that is powered by gas. And no one is going to freeze to death, the question is only the impact onto industry.

[deleted]

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#138

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Jul 10, 2022, 9:46 PM UTC

hash872 wrote: post #114

_xnmw wrote: post #93

It's far too late to change this. You cannot restructure the energy sources of a whole continent in a few months or even years. This could've been fixed if the West had understood and reacted appropriately to the magnitude of the Russian threat about 10 years ago, as foreseen by academics like Stephen Cohen and businessmen like Bill Browder, instead of blindly falling for its own hubristic self-delusion (which contin…

1. 'The West' wasn't hubristic, Europe was. The US has been telling Europe to get off of Russian gas & oil for decades, under multiple administrations. Both parties have been extremely clear about this for over two decades now. 'I'm astounded at how many people continue to live in the 3rd fantasy of believing Ukraine could somehow "defeat" Russia while still avoiding WW3' 2. The US lost in Vietnam without using nukes…

[deleted]

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#139

Post by rasz » Sun, Jul 10, 2022, 9:47 PM UTC

_xnmw wrote: post #93

It's far too late to change this. You cannot restructure the energy sources of a whole continent in a few months or even years. This could've been fixed if the West had understood and reacted appropriately to the magnitude of the Russian threat about 10 years ago, as foreseen by academics like Stephen Cohen and businessmen like Bill Browder, instead of blindly falling for its own hubristic self-delusion (which contin…

> What is your endgame here?

Im affraid the person you directed this question to (putler) doesnt read HN.

Russian win in Ukraine means more attacks in the future.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#140

Post by ajsnigrutin » Sun, Jul 10, 2022, 9:50 PM UTC

jhgb wrote: post #136

ajsnigrutin wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, you can heat homes using electricity, thus saving gas for things, where you cannot use electricity.

You won't heat homes using electricity more efficiently than with direct heaters without significantly redesigning them, so all this would do would be using even more primary energy than before. This is going to happen over time as nZEBs according to the 2010 and 2012 EU directives are going to replace old buildings in the building stock, but you can't make that happen overnight. Also, since the origin of the electri…

We're literally going into an era, where politicians are advising their citizens to "wear a warmer sweater" at home, in one of the strongest economies in the world. Every killowatt of energy helps, and if you're able to switch a percent or two of your people to use electricity for heat, that can save a lot of gas for areas, where there are no alternatives.

Yes, long term we can talk about many alternatives, but it's july... august, september, and it's already cold, space heaters cost ~10eur (2kW) and are still available (atleast more available than the alternatives).