Earlier quoted context omitted.
Quoted post unavailable.
"China is another story. Its official statistics understate the Chinese Covid death rate by 17,000% (according to The Economist’s model). In fact, based on excess mortality calculations, The Economist estimates that the true number of Covid deaths in China is not 4,636 – but something like 1.7 million." "Beijing Is Intentionally Underreporting China’s Covid Death Rate" https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2022/…
Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month
131–140 of 366 posts
Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month
#132Earlier quoted context omitted.
But most of China has not been on lockdown for most of the pandemic. Most people have experienced less lockdown than in the US, albeit more intense when it is locked down. 4 million excess deaths is a ton no matter which way you look at it.
> 4 million excess deaths is a ton no matter which way you look at it. You have to take the size of China into account, with 1.5B people, 4M is 2% of their population, it would be similar to 700k deaths in the US. While yes it is a ton, think about what effect the lockdowns will have. Some have speculated that more people have died thus far in Shanghai from the lockdowns than from Covid itself.
Missed a decimal point: 0.267%
Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month
#133Earlier quoted context omitted.
Reality aside, there are millions of people in China who are alive today who would not be if they had followed the US' policy. It is far too early to be calling that a failure.
It is a failure no matter what the outcome is. The end doesn't justify the means. You don’t get to rob people of their basic human rights. Ever. That is why they are called “human rights”. It means you don’t get to take them away.
Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month
#134Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month
#135Earlier quoted context omitted.
I would not call things fine. It's a mess of nonstop testing and ridiculous rules being enforced by people who are not trained for it. You've got old people who can hardly walk being asked to leave to get tested multiple times a month and millions who are quickly going broke for lack of work.
^ This is exactly why I was against lockdowns in America circa June of 2000. Somehow back then if you took this position you were labelled anti-science, a racist, basically a serial killer, etc. I hope next time there is a major event people will stop and think "Maybe this person just disagrees with my conclusion."
There are different sciences and to me lock-downs are sound science from one branch while from sociology and psychology they were doomed to not work or be even counter-productive to the end goal. We already saw how lockdown and masking attempts from the Spanish Flu didn’t really work and I was hoping we would have learned from then. Evidently our most learned experts sometimes don’t learn the right lessons
Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month
#136Earlier quoted context omitted.
"China is another story. Its official statistics understate the Chinese Covid death rate by 17,000% (according to The Economist’s model). In fact, based on excess mortality calculations, The Economist estimates that the true number of Covid deaths in China is not 4,636 – but something like 1.7 million." "Beijing Is Intentionally Underreporting China’s Covid Death Rate" https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2022/…
The Economist's model is complete nonsense when it comes to China. The Economist trained a black box machine learning algorithm on data from a bunch of countries that let the virus rip, and then blindly applied the resulting model to China. Garbage in, garbage out. From April 2020 through the end of 2021, people in China were out and about, living their lives almost as normal. Nobody knew anyone who was getting sick,…
Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month
#137Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is it? There was a ~30 day lockdown. China does strict lockdowns relative to the US or Europe. Car purchases could just be deferred a month, so there would be an economic impact, but the one-month blip wouldn't be indicative of any long-term problem.
It is indicative of a short term change. The short term changes here in the US resulted in other long term disruption and that's likely to happen in China as well.
Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month
#138How exactly is "zero-COVID" supposed to end? It seems like China are committed to extreme measures like this in perpetuity any time there is a future outbreak, which will happen.
Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month
#139I did not realize there is such a strict lockdown even now. Somehow missed that news cycle. However that makes me wonder if the other countries in the world like India and major parts of the US even test now. I mean unless it’s absolutely clear it’s covid they probably don’t test and go on with their lives.
Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month
#140Earlier quoted context omitted.
The reality at the moment is that practically everyone is going to get Covid at some point, Delta and now Omicron are just too transmissible. The only practical way for their zero Covid policy to work was to shut down all people coming into the country before Omicron arrived. Eventually they are going to have to move to a strategy of managing the virus to minimize the load on their medical system and prevent as many…
Reality aside, there are millions of people in China who are alive today who would not be if they had followed the US' policy. It is far too early to be calling that a failure.
That is a bad argument with no bearing on the current situation.
As the virus has mutated the strategy to deal with the virus needs to change. Early on China's strategy was effective at preventing deaths (the costs to achieve this could be debated), but now the virus has changed and that strategy is proving to be a terrible one with a massive cost to the country and their population. The significantly higher transmissibility means that spread cannot be prevented (only controlled) and the availability of vaccines means that deaths are far less common now.