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Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

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Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#131
post #119
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

"China is another story. Its official statistics understate the Chinese Covid death rate by 17,000% (according to The Economist’s model). In fact, based on excess mortality calculations, The Economist estimates that the true number of Covid deaths in China is not 4,636 – but something like 1.7 million." "Beijing Is Intentionally Underreporting China’s Covid Death Rate" https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2022/…

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Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But most of China has not been on lockdown for most of the pandemic. Most people have experienced less lockdown than in the US, albeit more intense when it is locked down. 4 million excess deaths is a ton no matter which way you look at it.

> 4 million excess deaths is a ton no matter which way you look at it. You have to take the size of China into account, with 1.5B people, 4M is 2% of their population, it would be similar to 700k deaths in the US. While yes it is a ton, think about what effect the lockdowns will have. Some have speculated that more people have died thus far in Shanghai from the lockdowns than from Covid itself.

>with 1.5B people, 4M is 2% of their population

Missed a decimal point: 0.267%

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reality aside, there are millions of people in China who are alive today who would not be if they had followed the US' policy. It is far too early to be calling that a failure.

It is a failure no matter what the outcome is. The end doesn't justify the means. You don’t get to rob people of their basic human rights. Ever. That is why they are called “human rights”. It means you don’t get to take them away.

Do we not routinely rob people of human rights when we go to war over things far smaller than 4 million lives?

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would not call things fine. It's a mess of nonstop testing and ridiculous rules being enforced by people who are not trained for it. You've got old people who can hardly walk being asked to leave to get tested multiple times a month and millions who are quickly going broke for lack of work.

^ This is exactly why I was against lockdowns in America circa June of 2000. Somehow back then if you took this position you were labelled anti-science, a racist, basically a serial killer, etc. I hope next time there is a major event people will stop and think "Maybe this person just disagrees with my conclusion."

I was only “against” lockdowns more recently on the principle that the reactance to it combined with an inappropriate infrastructure and system makes it not terribly effective and would hurt the efficacy of it as a policy vs the sound, rational theory from a purely epidemiology standpoint. If anything, I was hoping at least people would accept masking to the N95 standard but I don’t know what it’ll take before people are willing to slightly inconvenience themselves for public health reasons, and it’s not clear what possible collective actions can be done as a species if any at all besides our self destruction. Heck, I’m disappointed we didn’t have a wave of HVAC filtration and retrofitting work given it has great benefits regardless of COVID or not. People getting sick is bad for the bottom line regardless of political ideology, but America with its cultural masculinity issues somehow equates every topic in health with physical strength or something else as asinine from our middle to the right.

There are different sciences and to me lock-downs are sound science from one branch while from sociology and psychology they were doomed to not work or be even counter-productive to the end goal. We already saw how lockdown and masking attempts from the Spanish Flu didn’t really work and I was hoping we would have learned from then. Evidently our most learned experts sometimes don’t learn the right lessons

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#136
post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"China is another story. Its official statistics understate the Chinese Covid death rate by 17,000% (according to The Economist’s model). In fact, based on excess mortality calculations, The Economist estimates that the true number of Covid deaths in China is not 4,636 – but something like 1.7 million." "Beijing Is Intentionally Underreporting China’s Covid Death Rate" https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2022/…

The Economist's model is complete nonsense when it comes to China. The Economist trained a black box machine learning algorithm on data from a bunch of countries that let the virus rip, and then blindly applied the resulting model to China. Garbage in, garbage out. From April 2020 through the end of 2021, people in China were out and about, living their lives almost as normal. Nobody knew anyone who was getting sick,…

I haven't read the article - I thought parent comment was suggesting this is based on excess mortality?

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#137
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it? There was a ~30 day lockdown. China does strict lockdowns relative to the US or Europe. Car purchases could just be deferred a month, so there would be an economic impact, but the one-month blip wouldn't be indicative of any long-term problem.

It is indicative of a short term change. The short term changes here in the US resulted in other long term disruption and that's likely to happen in China as well.

Maybe. But, the article didn't even attempt to make that case. It was simply "lockdown led to no car sales" which on its own is pretty meaningless.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#138

How exactly is "zero-COVID" supposed to end? It seems like China are committed to extreme measures like this in perpetuity any time there is a future outbreak, which will happen.

The zero-Covid is just an excuse to manipulate the local (increasing wealth of citizens) and global (supply chain disruption) economic landscape. This should be obvious to anyone, but I guess is not, and some people still think this is about Covid.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#139
post #43

I did not realize there is such a strict lockdown even now. Somehow missed that news cycle. However that makes me wonder if the other countries in the world like India and major parts of the US even test now. I mean unless it’s absolutely clear it’s covid they probably don’t test and go on with their lives.

No post body was provided.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#140
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reality at the moment is that practically everyone is going to get Covid at some point, Delta and now Omicron are just too transmissible. The only practical way for their zero Covid policy to work was to shut down all people coming into the country before Omicron arrived. Eventually they are going to have to move to a strategy of managing the virus to minimize the load on their medical system and prevent as many…

Reality aside, there are millions of people in China who are alive today who would not be if they had followed the US' policy. It is far too early to be calling that a failure.

>Reality aside, there are millions of people in China who are alive today who would not be if they had followed the US' policy.

That is a bad argument with no bearing on the current situation.

As the virus has mutated the strategy to deal with the virus needs to change. Early on China's strategy was effective at preventing deaths (the costs to achieve this could be debated), but now the virus has changed and that strategy is proving to be a terrible one with a massive cost to the country and their population. The significantly higher transmissibility means that spread cannot be prevented (only controlled) and the availability of vaccines means that deaths are far less common now.

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