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Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

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Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#131

Post by dundarious »

maerF0x0 wrote: post #107
dundarious wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no reason to think that change only comes from pain. There's also no reason to think that repeated boom and bust cycles are necessary and good. That would be a kind of Malthusian logic that has thankfully been abandoned when it comes to population studies -- it should not be accepted in economics either.

it might have been better said "for some change only comes from pain"?

Some people? Mostly disagree. Some kinds of change? Sure, but plenty of beneficial changes don't.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#132

Post by nwiswell »

jjeaff wrote: post #130
nwiswell wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, that's true of commodities generally. They are worth what people will pay for them; they do not produce cash flows. A pile of copper is not productive either. The fair criticism, I suppose, is that the "compelling reasons" a person might pay for a pile of copper are much more numerous than for gold (or bitcoin). But, OK: think of fine art for a moment... it is also an unproductive asset, the value of which depen…

You can charge admission to view fine art in person.

I'm not sure if you are serious.

Are there any for-profit museums focused on fine art?

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#133

Post by jvalencia »

maerF0x0 wrote: post #101
dudeinjapan wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In biblical times, God became angry at all the douchebags in the world so he caused a giant flood to kill everyone (except for Noah, who was a mensch apparently.) Spoiler alert: it didn't work. There are now more douchebags than ever before.

God had remorse at what he had done and made a covenant to never do it again*. One of the morals of the stories is that the means it would take to wipe evil off the earth isn't worth it. * at least that way

Well, also, in the Biblical account, it was too late, they were all too far gone. I would argue it's not so bad now. :-) Imagine if your Mom sacrificed your older brother, and your Father was raping your sister, and ... Crypto in that light seems benign.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#134

Post by noxer »

Ekaros wrote: post #73
joecot wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As soon as it was clear that Bitcoin was going to be a commodity instead of a currency (why use it as a currency to buy a pizza this week when it could buy you a car next week?), it was clear it was now a pyramid scheme. That's why I didn't invest in it. What I hadn't counted on was how gullible people were for pyramid schemes.

I could have made relatively decent chunk of money if I had just kept the little I had... But I'm really just too risk averse and believe in sanity that the things wouldn't actually go anywhere. Specially not to the 100x from point where I was. Then again, I also think most tech stocks are just stupid. Especially Tesla, but thankfully I'm not either betting against them. Let's see if I'm proven correct in long run.

People with this kind of "risk tolerance" usually dont take a risk even tho it would probably be totally "sane".

If you think about it, many people make several million dollars over their life time but see it as to high of a risk to put 10k into something that could go to zero but it also could go to 100k or even more. That does not make much sense. The question should not be "should I risk the 10k? The question should be "am I in a financial position that allows me to lose 10k?" If the answer is "Yes" then consider doing it, you will not miss the 10k at the end of you life but you will remember what you did with the 100k if it happens.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#135

Post by princevegeta89 »

I am glad that crypto market is crashing and the utility is going down. In my POV, it is just a leeching virtual asset without a governing body behind it that makes crime easier to conduct. In addition, it is also bad for the environment and it's volatility tells me that it can never be used as a legal tender.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#136

Post by theptip »

nwiswell wrote: post #104
dionidium wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Buffett calls gold an “unproductive” asset, which, as defined in his 2011 letter to shareholders, means “assets that will never produce anything, but that are purchased in the buyer's hope that someone else — who also knows that these assets will be forever unproductive — will pay more for them in the future.”" Source: https://grow.acorns.com/warren-buffett-why-gold-is-an-unprod...

Yes, that's true of commodities generally. They are worth what people will pay for them; they do not produce cash flows. A pile of copper is not productive either. The fair criticism, I suppose, is that the "compelling reasons" a person might pay for a pile of copper are much more numerous than for gold (or bitcoin). But, OK: think of fine art for a moment... it is also an unproductive asset, the value of which depen…

I don’t think that’s the point. Copper and most other commodities are productive under Buffet’s definition because you put them into pipes and other things. They are manufacturing inputs. Their price is set by the demand for the things that you make with them. Housing demand goes up => copper price goes up.

Gold is used in manufacturing but not as much as it could be, because the price is set much higher by speculation/hoarding. So Buffet’s point is that the price is set not by its productive use but by its unproductive use.

Bitcoin is the same as gold but without the productive use to set a price floor. If the speculative market for gold tanked you’d settle on something like 5-10% IIRC as the imputed value based on manufacturing uses. Bitcoin has zero value for manufacturing uses. Maybe there is a price floor for smart contract usages if the speculative market evaporated but I think it’s much lower than 5%.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#138

Post by bobro »

quickthrowman wrote: post #18
joezydeco wrote: post #4

I'm glad that a long overdue reality check is coming. But I'm incredibly sad that many, many small fish will lose their entire life's savings in the hours and days and weeks ahead. I've already seen random social media postings of attempted suicides, or talk of it. We will lose actual human beings in this. And, what's worse, is that the real grifters and crooks will walk away clean once again. There isn't enough time…

I blame Congress and the SEC, they’ve had plenty of time to regulate the crypto casino but they have not done so. Now people will suffer.

what would they do to regulate it?

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#139

Post by TameAntelope »

joecot wrote: post #58
dionidium wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not gloating just yet. If you bought Bitcoin at literally any other time than the two peaks that have occurred over the last year, then you're still way, way, way up. Bitcoin was last at its current price between those two peaks, a little less than one year ago. Of course, NFTs and all that were just so obviously nonsense that I don't even think it's worth commenting on.

As soon as it was clear that Bitcoin was going to be a commodity instead of a currency (why use it as a currency to buy a pizza this week when it could buy you a car next week?), it was clear it was now a pyramid scheme. That's why I didn't invest in it. What I hadn't counted on was how gullible people were for pyramid schemes.

I wish we had a better phrase than "pyramid scheme", because IMO anything that's a "scheme" has people who know better at one end, and I really don't think there's anyone involved in crypto that is deliberately "winning". What's a phrase for when everyone is getting scammed, and not by any one person, but by an idea? Where there are no winners, only lucky and unlucky.

Pyramid trap? Pyramid quagmire? IDK, but "scheme" implies something I don't think is there - control.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#140

Post by jjeaff »

marcosdumay wrote: post #109
nwiswell wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not clear on the logic here to be perfectly honest, even if I broadly agree that the real innovation with Bitcoin died when it was clear it would never be a currency. But gold is also a commodity, and I don't think I've ever heard it called a pyramid scheme.

People buy gold on the expectation that it won't lose to inflation. That's why it isn't a pyramid, an exponential curve is well contained if the exponent is exactly 1.

Also, gold has actual utility as a product that is needed to manufacture certain things and is also desirable for cultural reasons like jewelry for enjoyment and social signaling.
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