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Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

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Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#131

Post by simion314 »

deutschew wrote: post #4

how much of this was contributed to banning all reporting from the Russian side of things? right now the atmosphere is like if you even remotely suggest that Russia is actually making slow progress despite losses you are viewed as supporting Russia! Yet what the fixation on Kyiv is doing is it's pulling resources away from the south and Donentsk/Lukansk area where the Ukraine army is in real danger of being completel…

I just checked and you can access Russian state media, so have at it please https://ria.ru - I don't speak Russian but from my research this is state owned media, please if others know better can we prove that if you really want to read Russia propaganda it is still possible, you just need a bit more effort then opening FB or twiiter or your TV

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#132

Post by selimthegrim »

axg11 wrote: post #44
gremlinsinc wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Zelenskyy should take: No eu/Nato membership (face it, he's months or years from qualifying anyways), and he leaves Donbask, and Crimea (for now), but does NOT agree to disband any military, and is allowed to secure his own borders. In otherwords he can still ramp up, then the west simply continues squeezing Putin and Russia for a year, or 3... then he can either go take back Crimea/Donbask regions, or perhap…

You’re letting your imagination run a little too wild here. Depending on which polls you believe, 20-50% of Russians support this invasion. There is no end scenario where Russians are content being ruled by a non-Russian, even in a newly formed democratic state.

The ones in Odessa seem fine with it.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#133

Post by [deleted] »

otherme123 wrote: post #31
jcadam wrote: post #13

Zelensky is starting to sound like he's open to considering some of Russia's stated terms (no pursuit of NATO membership and cession of eastern Ukraine). That doesn't sound like things are going especially well for him.

Maybe Zelenskyy doesn't like thousand of Ukraines dying for some inflated ego, potentially millions. That solution, and specially if acompanied with guarantees of no further agressions if Ukraine doesn't enter NATO or EU, is a win for the country, and a pyrric victory for Putin: his credibility is gone forever, and all he got is a small piece of terrain. Enough to sell internally as a win, but hardly anywhere else.

[deleted]

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#134

Post by JimBlackwood »

jcadam wrote: post #13

Zelensky is starting to sound like he's open to considering some of Russia's stated terms (no pursuit of NATO membership and cession of eastern Ukraine). That doesn't sound like things are going especially well for him.

I’m sure his interests are in ending a war that’s costing civilian lives. If the expectation is that Russia will increase the severity of their fight, you cannot keep fighting at all cost. I fully think Ukraine can outlast Putin, but at what cost?

Like he said to NATO in regards to the no-fly zone “How many civilians need to die? Give me a number, I’ll start counting.”

Similarly here; how many civilians are Crimea and the two eastern provinces worth? If you have a number we’ll start counting. We’ll get there before Putin falls.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#135

Post by helpseeker »

Information from either side is to be taken with a grain of salt, although Ukraine is winning the social media ops-game hands down.

I think since after the 1st week of troop movements it's pretty clear:

- Russia aims at encircling cities, draining the resistance there, forcing them into negotiations and so that enemy combatants can evacuate into western Ukraine (like they did in Syria)

- Ukraine aims at short-term luring them into cities (e.g. preventing humanitarian corridors, creating negative pr) and long-term building up an insurgency (turning Ukraine into Russia's 2nd Afghanistan).

A recipe for humanitarian disaster.

The upside: Russia doesn't seem intent to even set foot in western Ukraine.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#136

Post by t0mas88 »

dekhn wrote: post #121
q1w2 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are also getting fresh soldiers. I saw a claim from a Canadian vet in Kyiv that 40,000 foreign fighters were already in Kyiv. The Canadian was part of a 500-man exclusively Canadian urban battalion. There was also a report on BBC that Russia had summoned foreign ambassadors in Moscow to complain about foreign volunteers traveling to Ukraine to fight against Russia [1]. I've also been on Telegram channels helping…

Eventually the question becomes "if these guest fighters are successful, at what point do they consider going north through the contested border and attacking Russian (or, more likely, Belurussian) cities?"

Belarus may be at a higher risk here, the local army is weak and the political opposition was quite strong last election.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#137

Post by pessimizer »

WJW wrote: post #41
CodeGlitch wrote: post #18

Here's my prediction: Russia will take control of all or most nuclear power plants and other infrastructure. At which point it's only a matter of time until the people of Ukraine will surrender with no water or electricity. As it stands the West can do nothing. In the case that NATO starts shooting, the sarcophagus over Chernobyl can be bombed (Putin can blame Ukrainians here). It seems to be that there's no way out…

The west can do for the Ukrainians what Pakistan has been doing for decades for the Taliban: provide safe havens, supplies and weapons to small insurgent groups doing guerilla strikes against the Russians. The Ukraine is so large that to keep it occupied would take hundreds of thousands of troops and Russia cannot afford to keep up such mobilisation for long. They have a few months at most and properly beating an ins…

> The west can do for the Ukrainians what Pakistan has been doing for decades for the Taliban: provide safe havens, supplies and weapons to small insurgent groups doing guerilla strikes against the Russians.

This would be a great tactic to reduce Ukraine to a pile of smoking rubble over a couple of decades of war. I'm not sure that's a great outcome for Ukrainians.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#138

Post by breakingcups »

bostonsre wrote: post #64
beepbooptheory wrote: post #57

I just have no confidence that we can really know anything for sure one way or another. The media so far (in the West) ranges from tangibly self-conscious to overt propaganda, much of which is proven false a day later. There is no harm in this in itself, propaganda is as much part of the war as any other part, I get that, but I at this point I wouldn't be surprised that Russia is doing much better than what is being…

What are some examples of "propaganda" that proved to be false a day later?

It took a little longer, but the mobile crematoria were stated as fact pretty early on.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#139

Post by tada131 »

baq wrote: post #125
tada131 wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most Ukrainians are forced to support Russia because the way how Zelensky "defends" Ukraine by freeing prisoners and giving advice to fight with Molotov cocktails.

These people have experienced being part of ussr and really, really don’t want to go back. Source: am Eastern European

Russia isn't part of USSR either. Source: am Russian

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#140

Post by lb1lf »

dekhn wrote: post #121
q1w2 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are also getting fresh soldiers. I saw a claim from a Canadian vet in Kyiv that 40,000 foreign fighters were already in Kyiv. The Canadian was part of a 500-man exclusively Canadian urban battalion. There was also a report on BBC that Russia had summoned foreign ambassadors in Moscow to complain about foreign volunteers traveling to Ukraine to fight against Russia [1]. I've also been on Telegram channels helping…

Eventually the question becomes "if these guest fighters are successful, at what point do they consider going north through the contested border and attacking Russian (or, more likely, Belurussian) cities?"

-At that point, of course, they'd meet resistance from Russian forces which suddenly _have_ a good reason to fight, likely also being supported by a population which will not be thrilled at a bunch of mercenaries having a go at their homeland.

Kicking a poorly motivated invasion force out of the Ukraine is one thing.

Wreaking havoc in Russia? Quite another.

Now, Belarus, on the other hand, I could see toppling over in such a way (unless propped up by Russia)

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