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I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

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Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#131

Post by bluGill »

epgui wrote: post #116
kelnos wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that was the parent's point. These things could be made safer with other detection technologies beyond plain cameras. A human driver can make a conscious, nuanced decision to make these "faith-based decisions", but a computer may not be able to. So perhaps it might just completely refuse to drive in those situations if all it has is a camera, but it can't see anything due to fog or terrain, even if it w…

It's really not clear to me what gives a human the nearly-magical ability to make decisions that a computer could not possibly make. If anything, I think we've seen that computers are much better than humans at making decisions in an ever-expanding set of narrow contexts (eg.: chess, go, protein folding...). It's not so much a matter of "can a computer do it better", it's more a question of "when are we going to figu…

Exactly humans are bad drivers.

Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#132

Post by judge2020 »

jowday wrote: post #65
judge2020 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is that I can't find any examples of Tesla's vision only system in FSD Beta not detecting any objects - all the failures are on the 'driving AI' side, ie. it makes the bad decision to try to turn right into a cyclist despite the cyclist being displayed on the center screen[0]. 0: https://twitter.com/WarrenJWells/status/1491487543455465472?...

There are tons of examples of objects flickering in and out of existence, not being detected, warping in weird ways. This is one of the most recent tweets from a prominent Tesla reverse engineer with plenty of examples. https://twitter.com/greentheonly/status/1496598013590097923

That's still detection, even if it can't precisely map the edge of the semi while cars are moving by; sometimes what's on screen isn't representative of what actual bounds the car thinks is off-limits, as we can see here[0] where the model of the commercial truck clips the car's model on-screen. He seems to support this theory that the problem is mostly the brain of the car[1], at least regarding how lidar won't help with object detection in general.

0: https://youtu.be/ttvBZtqxlRo?t=630

1: https://twitter.com/greentheonly/status/1497696259473391617?..., and auxiliarily: https://twitter.com/greentheonly/status/1497696259473391617?...

Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#133

Post by TulliusCicero »

joenathanone wrote: post #95
bluGill wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My problem with cameras is as a human I'm well aware there are things that I can't see and so i rely on faith. I've driven in dense fog trusting that nobody else would be stupid enough to do the same (fortunately taillights can be seen through fog, but not many other dangers that normally are not on the road, but if so they are dead). I often drive with sub in my eyes at dawn/dusk and trust that the road is clear. I…

LiDAR can't see through fog either, Radar and Ultrasonics can but from my understanding those are only used as secondary sensors.

Right, though IIRC Tesla at least has now stopped using radar.

Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#134

Post by freshpots »

Dylan16807 wrote: post #127
madamelic wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I do wonder if, deep down, Tesla's decision is rooted in aesthetics. I've always read it as Tesla trying to do a paradigm leap. It seems everyone in self-driving knows you can do it pretty well with a huge variety of sensors, but what if you got extremely good at only camera-based then added in the new sensors. Basically, if you can establish that the very worst case works, you can add in more sensors to go beyond…

You don't have to remove sensors to write code that way. And what if the best answer is being extremely good at lidar-only and then adding in cameras on top.

They should still have radar to see through fog/rain but they abandoned it, as Green said: https://twitter.com/greentheonly/status/1496575861822267403

   now is a terrible time to buy a new Tesla car.

   But I do realize not everybody can wait it out

Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#135

Post by 2muchcoffeeman »

epgui wrote: post #116
kelnos wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that was the parent's point. These things could be made safer with other detection technologies beyond plain cameras. A human driver can make a conscious, nuanced decision to make these "faith-based decisions", but a computer may not be able to. So perhaps it might just completely refuse to drive in those situations if all it has is a camera, but it can't see anything due to fog or terrain, even if it w…

It's really not clear to me what gives a human the nearly-magical ability to make decisions that a computer could not possibly make. If anything, I think we've seen that computers are much better than humans at making decisions in an ever-expanding set of narrow contexts (eg.: chess, go, protein folding...). It's not so much a matter of "can a computer do it better", it's more a question of "when are we going to figu…

Your examples are things that can mostly be broken down or modeled logically though. Chess are Go are hard so I guess it seems like AI for them means there some sort of fundamental break through.

But consider how a human or even a dog catches a ball. You can study physics and learn that a ball will follow a parabola when thrown and the the shape of parabola is determined by the velocity as it leaves the throwers hand. But none of that matters. You try and catch a ball. Miss a bunch of times. Practice. And then you get better at it. And then you can catch all manner of things coming at you at various velocities. You can unconsciously predict a ball's path accurately enough to catch it without even knowing any physics. Some people can even rely on their instincts.

This line of thought is moving goal posts, but I think even for people that have some understanding of what AI is, the current state of the art doesn't pass our intuition about all the things a human does to drive a car. And the sorts of mistakes that current self driving makes don't really seem better than a human.

Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#136

Post by bombcar »

jliptzin wrote: post #128
toomuchtodo wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would not take Elon and Tesla at face value. While they are currently going all in on cameras, I wouldn't put it past them to 180 and decide "turns out we need new hardware, and we're going to eat the cost considering our revenue and market cap." They recently filed to test new millimeter wave radar equipment operating at 60GHz [1], so I wouldn't say they're married to vision only if it turns out vision only isn't…

Yea, it’s possible they are going all-in on vision only right now because LIDAR is just too expensive right now to roll out to their fleet. If they get it to work without LIDAR, then that’s great. But it’s possible they’re building out a system that can quickly pivot to LIDAR if necessary and when LIDAR costs come down to make it economically feasible as well.

More importantly if the main part they’re working on is the “what to do with situation X” code then adding additional sensors for more accurate data later is relatively easy.

Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#137

Post by bombcar »

onethought wrote: post #107
jdlshore wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Classic whataboutism. GM's irresponsible behavior doesn't excuse Tesla's irresponsible behavior.

It's not whataboutism. - Autopilot has been "on" during 12 fatal crashes. It's a level 2 driver assist so it isn't "responsible" for those deaths, the driver is. Autopilot data shows it improves safety. Could you explain the unethical part? - The ignition recall, GM knew it was a problem, and it was. The unethical part is super clear. These aren't equivalent at all. Actually this highlights the bad faith attacks on T…

I think they’re referring to the “rolling stop” code Tesla added - which is technically an illegal maneuver but not one resulting in death as far as I know.

Autodrive is going to force the actual law and the theoretical law to come into sync, otherwise automatic driving cars will cause other issues by sticking to the letter of the law when normal drivers do not.

Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#139

Post by joenathanone »

TulliusCicero wrote: post #133
joenathanone wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LiDAR can't see through fog either, Radar and Ultrasonics can but from my understanding those are only used as secondary sensors.

Right, though IIRC Tesla at least has now stopped using radar.

Which I personally think is a mistake.

I'm in the FSD beta and previously Tesla bounced the radar off the ground and was able to see a few car lengths ahead, vision only, not so much. The effect is when stuck in heavy traffic on surface streets FSD beta will think it should try to go around a lead car that is stopped, not knowing there is a long line of traffic ahead of the lead car. I don't see how they can overcome that issue with vision only, especially given current camera placement.

Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#140

Post by blankley »

walrus01 wrote: post #26

From the last time that Cruise showed up on HN a while back, I recall I made a comment based on the photos of their test vehicles that they're clearly going all-in on LIDAR + RADAR + camera for feeding data into their autonomous onboard navigation computer. This is directly the opposite of what Tesla has mandated their engineers to do, which is to be 100% reliant upon camera systems only. Somebody at Cruise commented…

You may well be describing me, as a Seattle resident with a blue coat and a chocolate lab who currently has an upset stomach and is in need of many walks recently. We're working on the food/diet part, but your comment inspired me to buy a reflective arm band for myself. His harness is already a bit reflective. Anyway, thought it was funny and thanks for the sanity check/advice.
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