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A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

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Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#131

Post by imwillofficial »

aluminum96 wrote: post #93
nimbius wrote: post #44

quite a few commenters have pointed out SWIFT as a hand of soft power and i think its important to understand the twitter post doesnt mention an important fact: SWIFT was created in order that Europe may resist Kissingers increasingly capricious hand of soft power as it emerged as a lead sap in an increasingly arbitrary US foreign policy. 40 years ago the US had become effectively drunk on soft-power moves against st…

> in 2022 sanctions are ... effectively meaningless as most capable, observant countries have managed to sidestep in part or in whole the once dominant US hegemony This is only true to the extent that the US unilaterally imposes sanctions. The proposed sanctions involving SWIFT are multilateral, with the support of the entire EU. That's around double the economic power of the US alone, and roughly half of the entire…

Yeah, China isn’t going to side with the US/EU, and the rest of the Asian countries are too small to matter, including Japan/Korea.

In fact, China has stepped up their efforts to aid Russia.

The next few weeks will be history in the making. Pay attention.

Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#132

Post by jorblumesea »

nimbius wrote: post #44

quite a few commenters have pointed out SWIFT as a hand of soft power and i think its important to understand the twitter post doesnt mention an important fact: SWIFT was created in order that Europe may resist Kissingers increasingly capricious hand of soft power as it emerged as a lead sap in an increasingly arbitrary US foreign policy. 40 years ago the US had become effectively drunk on soft-power moves against st…

> in 2022 sanctions are to international diplomacy as a tantrum is to a toddler. theyre effectively meaningless

This is just straight up wrong. This is why the Magnitsky Act got Putin so rattled. It is also why Putin has said being cut off from swift is an act of war. If it's meaningless, why does Russia care so much?

Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#133

Post by stef25 »

CommanderData wrote: post #75
sega_sai wrote: post #37

All these sanctions are a bit of the joke when you are dealing with an insane leader in a country without elections and sitting on top of a pile of reserves. And the west is not doing one thing that could actually actually make a difference -- cutting oil and gas export because the west thinks it'll be too expensive for the west. I feel these sanctions are still more of signalling, than actually doing something usefu…

The sanctions are theatre and will be lifted in a year or so. If the West really cared Swift would have happened long ago. The reality is they do not care for Ukraine.

> The reality is they do not care for Ukraine.

I've been thinking about this all day and feel incredibly upset when I see what's going on.

What can we do? Have you seen what the Russians did to Grozny?

It all boils down to the fact that EU simply can't start a war with a maniac that has thousands of nukes. I'd say let him have it and Ukrainians refugees are welcome here by the millions.

Putin's now threatening Finland and Sweden should they dare join NATO and there's talk of the conflict spilling over in to Moldova and Georgia. That would change things drastically. As soon as EU or US forces take military action against Russia we have to assume he'll retaliate and then it's basically WW3. If that's what it takes to get rid of this maniac then so be it but the consequences for everyone will be severe.

Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#134

Post by bakuninsbart »

infamouscow wrote: post #83
sega_sai wrote: post #37

All these sanctions are a bit of the joke when you are dealing with an insane leader in a country without elections and sitting on top of a pile of reserves. And the west is not doing one thing that could actually actually make a difference -- cutting oil and gas export because the west thinks it'll be too expensive for the west. I feel these sanctions are still more of signalling, than actually doing something usefu…

The inescapable fact is Germany intentionally put themselves in a position to be more dependent on Russian oil/gas with their shutdown of nuclear power. The previous US president made a point about how Germany's decision contradicts the purpose of NATO.[1] 1: https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1496917092351692810

There hasn't been a large change in imports of russian gas in Germany since the start of the Energiewende. [0] Gas is largely used for heating, electrical heating was never widespread and would not have been a viable alternative, even with keeping more nuclear power online, since it is uncompetititve without major subsidies.

Anyway, gas consumption as a percentage of the total mix has been stable since before the start of the Energiewende. [1] Germany replaced some coal and nuclear with renewables and kept the rest stable while also substantially increasing total energy demand.

Since your are quoting one of the worst people I've ever had the displeasure of having to listen to, it is curious that you ignore that the US is a major importer of russian resources, too, and is now silent now about boycotting russian imports. [2] It was all fun and games when the trade-off was that Germany would have to import expensive American natural gas, but biting in the sour apple yourself doesn't seem to be on the table, at least for now.

[0] https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/exports/germany/mineral-...

[1] https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-energy-c...

[2] https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-ne...

Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#135

Post by thomasahle »

lxgr wrote: post #126
TekMol wrote: post #26

I often wonder how money is stored. It can't be just a number on a computer in a bank, right? Otherwise some Russian bank could just increase that number to whatever they like. And say "Look, we own 100 Trillion USD. Now let's go shopping.". So I guess USD needs to be recognized by the US somehow? Could the US simply "void" all USD that are owned by Russia?

> It can't be just a number on a computer in a bank, right? It really is, but to answer your second question, it's important to consider *which* bank. There's reserves (i.e. balances of banks at the Federal Reserve) and bank deposits (which really are just numbers in banks' databases). Having an account at the former is effectively what makes numbers in the database of the latter "real USD". > Otherwise some Russian…

I suppose what OP was arguing is, when bank A transfers to bank B, does bank B check with the Feds that the money from bank A is "real"? And is a transfer from A to B really a transfer from A's account at the Feds to B's?

In that case, why would the US have to act "indirectly", threatening bank A not to work with bank B? They could simply deny any transfers to and from bank B's account at the Feds, which would make any transactions impossible?

Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#136

Post by Kina »

isodev wrote: post #118
legalcorrection wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The EU would only go along with this because the US has them by the proverbial balls. European militaries are a joke and there is no domestic political support for building them up.

You are assuming the US is leading the effort, which is not the case. Also EU and US are partners and allies and so mutual support is expected.

America represents 40% of NATO forces. America guarantees the physical security of Europe in consultation with the governments of these nations, but there is an inherent power imbalance here.

Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#137

Post by dmingod666 »

m_ke wrote: post #54
daenz wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was watching a mainstream news report (I'll try to find it and edit my comment) where the host and the guest were talking about the impact of economic sanctions. They said it's not intended to stop Russia, but to inflict pain on the citizens, so that they citizens will turn against leadership. In that moment, it really clicked for me how much normal people are pawns to be used in much larger games. And there appare…

With all due respect Russian people are the only ones who can stop Putin.

If the US citizens can't improve their own govt and get them to stop neverending wars, I think it's a tall order to expect citizens in a dictatorship to do it. Point isn't US bad -- point is, no easy way to affect change other than revolution which too ends up with bigger tyrants..

Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#138

Post by legalcorrection »

ajross wrote: post #119
legalcorrection wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Him thinking that, however qualified he is, does not mean he's right. Being the CEO of a hedge fund, with a personal grudge against Russia, does not make you infallible. The US benefits enormously from owning the reserve currency and running the world financial system, and the ultimate effect of our trigger-happy approach to sanctions is to push countries away from those, especially with the US becoming a smaller per…

> The US benefits enormously from owning the reserve currency and running the world financial system, and the ultimate effect of our trigger-happy approach to sanctions is to push countries away from those That seems belied by actual history. The US has been a "trigger happy" sanctioner for basically the entirety of the post-war era, and the dollar has been dominant throughout. What would change now that didn't when…

What's changing is that every year the US economy is becoming less important for the rest of the world.

Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#139

Post by majormajor »

TekMol wrote: post #26

I often wonder how money is stored. It can't be just a number on a computer in a bank, right? Otherwise some Russian bank could just increase that number to whatever they like. And say "Look, we own 100 Trillion USD. Now let's go shopping.". So I guess USD needs to be recognized by the US somehow? Could the US simply "void" all USD that are owned by Russia?

This is similar to the "why are banks allowed to print money by issuing loans and I'm not?" confusion that sometimes goes around.

Your internal balances are only good so long as the rest of the system trusts you. Magic up some fake balances and good luck getting the rest of the world to continue to take you seriously. "You want us to believe you've actually got that 100 Trillion? Show us?" How would this Russian bank spend these trillions? They can't cash out, because they don't actually have that much paper USD. Transfer it to another bank somewhere more reputable? How are you going to make those transfers clear?

I invite you to open your own bank and print yourself ten million dollars out of the air. Good luck converting that number to cash or transferring it to anywhere else!

Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#140

Post by brimble »

legalcorrection wrote: post #115
aluminum96 wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> in 2022 sanctions are ... effectively meaningless as most capable, observant countries have managed to sidestep in part or in whole the once dominant US hegemony This is only true to the extent that the US unilaterally imposes sanctions. The proposed sanctions involving SWIFT are multilateral, with the support of the entire EU. That's around double the economic power of the US alone, and roughly half of the entire…

The EU would only go along with this because the US has them by the proverbial balls. European militaries are a joke and there is no domestic political support for building them up.

The EU collectively outclasses every likely regional aggressor or likely regional coalition, and can project power better than any but a handful of other states (most of which are unproven against that challenge). Throw in Britain and only the US—which is in a mutual defense pact with several EU states—is clearly ahead of them. How's that "a joke"?
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