131–140 of 141 posts
There's a great history of this, The Great Beanie Baby Bubble: Mass Delusion and the Dark Side of Cute by Zac Bissonnette. It's a quick read, almost entirely original reporting. Aside from the colorful characters, it's really compelling to see the way some individuals' and limited information combined with mass media fell together to create the bubble. It seems like it couldn't have happened at any other time because…
Oh, bubbles can surely happen even in the era of widespread information. Look no further than housing. A few points on housing: - real home prices have now surpassed the 2000s peak - household formation and population growth has been decelerating, while building has been accelerating. - there are 1.1 homes per household, same as the year 2000. We are not at historically low supply as some claim. Only low in terms of…
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/08/homes/zillow-ibuyer-homes/ind...
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> Just sell before the line goes down and they’re going to be rich! This is generally known as the greater fool theory.
In many respects they are right. Frequently there _are_ greater fools. Eventually someone is left holding the can. The Art world works because there are a few extremely wealthy people who are content to be the 'fool' at the end of the chain. In those cases sentimental attachment or simply being a patron of the arts is enough for them. If everyone expects to make a gain, it's a house of cards. Cryptocurrencies are a b…
That's the basic point of the theory! The tricky part is, at least on mass, humans are much worse at knowing where they are in the curve than they think they are...
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"There’s currently a pump and dump on retro video games but I don’t think the same supply issues exist in Pokémon cards, but I’m not actively monitoring either market." Can you clarify what the pump and dump on retro video games looks like? To me, there seems to be real demand for retro video games. You can see the interest in various subreddits.
https://youtu.be/mKbuNwS-gaI Sorry it’s a long watch. The tldr is that people involved in several high end sales, and game rating and auction houses are known business associates creating a conflict of interest and inflating sale prices artificially.
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Agreed. 19.94B locked up in NFTs atm https://defillama.com/nfts
That's a total volume number, not a market cap. If you want to see some market caps[0] they're still staggeringly high for what they represent, but beware: you can't see the demand curve on a price history chart. There's no way of knowing how much of the market could decide to sell before they ran out of buyers. Market caps are used to estimate value on wall street because it's imagined that the number of people who…
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Agreed. 19.94B locked up in NFTs atm https://defillama.com/nfts
I call bullshit. We're supposed to believe people have invested almost $20B in NFTs? I have no data one way or the other, but this fails the smell test.
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Sorry, I think I'm not following. I think you're saying that housing prices are too high. Then you're saying that if inflation continues housing prices will drop? I totally get that most home sales are based on the monthly mortgage bill, so when interest rates are high, house prices are lower. But, if we have 7% inflation why wouldn't rates increase AND prices increase? I don' think the outcome is obvious when high i…
I don't know about the US but the next move in the UK is to deregulate lending criteria. Allowing more people to borrow 5-6x income with tiny deposits. People have always over extended themselves here to buy property.
If a 20yr mortgage suddenly became the only option, prices would decline in a big way. Of course, things might go the other way with 40yr mortgages etc
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If inflation persists rising mortgage rates will push affordability to record lows. We're already close If inflation abates quickly, then current prices can maintain and become the new normal. The rate shock will price out pretty much every primary buyer. Investors will stop buying and even sell if they fear it's a peak. On top of this, huge amount of backlogged supply is about to come into market in a big way in sou…
Why wouldn't housing prices drop if the mortgage rate increased and keep affordability about the same?
Just look how that worked out for homebuyers in the 80s paying 10%, who were able to refi at 2% later down the line.
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https://youtu.be/mKbuNwS-gaI Sorry it’s a long watch. The tldr is that people involved in several high end sales, and game rating and auction houses are known business associates creating a conflict of interest and inflating sale prices artificially.
Thanks. This is very informative. I think growing collectible markets will always be susceptible to shill auctions.