I may be ignorant but I still don’t understand the fuss about this feat. I mean poker is all about probability, right? With uncertainty about bluffing and fraught with emotional control problems. So naturally, a machine is best suited for this kind of problem, but not human. The bluffing problem can also be solved with heuristic optimization techniques like GA. Thus, is it not obvious that machines/algorithms will beat humans in the long run?
How A.I. Conquered Poker
131–140 of 188 posts
Re: How A.I. Conquered Poker
#132(Former pro and high stakes player, occasional solver developer) This is actually one of the best poker articles I've ever seen in generalist media. Not too clickbaity, reasonable high level overview of game theory, a (very accurate IMO) quote from old pro Erik Seidel about the state of the game just 15 years ago, a discussion on variance vs. EV and results, and most importantly, an emphasis on math, randomization te…
Similar story here. I’ve always played, mostly online, before Black Friday (pretty sure I was a minor when it happened) but played all the offshore sites through college. Professional software career took off and bounced out, finally ~3y ago I decided to get back into it and I would only play challenging games (only thing challenging about a 1/3 or tourneys is the grind). So, started with 2/5, within a week was playing the 10/25, 25/50.
1. Emotional control and pushing through the variance are key, I would play all nighters and it was mostly a subtle rise up vs big pots (except the one that did me in)
2. You absolutely do read players, I didn’t need to be a pro to learn how to observe the degenerates. Even decent players signaled things here or there (obv not how they eat an oreo , but I had a knack for knowing when someone was off their style). And it’s not even close wit a normal group of friends.
3. the sharks and their meta game… I had run up to about 50K within 3 weeks from my starting 2-3K. Had the pipe dream. I thought I had a growing bond with the pros. When I say pros I’m not talking grinders, I’m talking consistent big winners. About a handful of them. None of them tv personalities. - There were few times we’d run into each other, but I picked off a few donk bets here or there. However their persistence is what did me in. Went the entire month observing their advanced play style, which the meta was harsh, there were few rivers that mattered more than pre flop and continuation/donk betting. This style of play was like nothing I was seeing on tv. But I was winning with them. The last time I played, about a month into my run, I was on a 12h 25/50 game winding down, turned 30k into 70k (had 20k sitting back) pulled QQ and went up against a pre-flop donker. I face a 3 bet and get that gut feeling but put on lower pair or AK. Flop rainbows, large betting action. Turn, junk, I face an insane Re raise after testing a raise of my own, I know it’s off but it’s either AA/KK or AK at this point. My guts off but I’m too far in to quit. On the river I’m defeated, check, face bet, ultimately end up throwing 50K into the pot, lose to aces.
I never had a gut feeling so intense though. Like I was screaming at myself to get out. But I was caught.
Such a draining hand I never went back. I don’t have the discipline to grind games, and the tech industry pays more.
Re: How A.I. Conquered Poker
#133(Former pro and high stakes player, occasional solver developer) This is actually one of the best poker articles I've ever seen in generalist media. Not too clickbaity, reasonable high level overview of game theory, a (very accurate IMO) quote from old pro Erik Seidel about the state of the game just 15 years ago, a discussion on variance vs. EV and results, and most importantly, an emphasis on math, randomization te…
Good to see poker theory approaching the way I naturally thought when I played on PokerStars (before Chuck Schumer and co shut it all down for us).
People used to make fun of me for playing limits and sucking out on people. And no limit I would have some crazy strategies to fake out a table and make them anger-bet into my connected straight flush draws, when I was “representing” a two pair etc.
On large tables, often you want many people to stay in, until the river, because then the pot is big enough that multiple people will go all-in. You just have to be very sure you probably have the best hand (such as a flush that you were drawing for). I woul actually “goad” people with raising small amounts, whenever I had suited connectors for example, and if I hit a draw or the nuts on the flop, I would act as if I am “protecting” a top pair or so. On the other hand, when you are on a draw and if you want to see the next hand on the turn, you have to bet the flop much harder, because then it signals to most “basic” people that you’re “protecting” a hand — therefore gaining you an informational advantage when you do hit — as well as the “intimidation” factor that lets you “check” the turn to see the river — because they often think you’re checkraising them and also check, giving you another free card. You pay more on the flop but have two free cards after. Also If you don’t hit your draw, sometimes they didn’t hit either, and you can take it down with an aggressive bet since you were “representing” that you flopped a strong hand. To summarize:
1) play large tables
2) play suited connectors, or suited Ace-something
3) limp in or if you are late-position, double the bet to make people call and grow he pot and be more excited to bet later, you also represent a reasonably high pair
4) after a flop - if you are one card away from hitting a very strong draw (eg ace high flush) then bet hard on the flop — late position is always best for this… otherwise you have to bet less to keep people in
5) regardless of whether the turn card makes your draw, check on the turn … you may have to call any bet if multiple people stay in, and play the odds
6) if you made the nuts on the river, checkraise all in (since you represented that you are protecting a flooped hand).
7) there were also timing factors, people get more annoyed if you take too long. And you can play multiple tables online until you hit these kinds of starting hands
PS: Against a really intelligent table where people don’t churn, you’d have to leave after a couple big wins and do the same thing elsewhere. The whole idea in poker is to take advantage of most people just executing some common strategy or mindset.
Re: How A.I. Conquered Poker
#134I may be ignorant but I still don’t understand the fuss about this feat. I mean poker is all about probability, right? With uncertainty about bluffing and fraught with emotional control problems. So naturally, a machine is best suited for this kind of problem, but not human. The bluffing problem can also be solved with heuristic optimization techniques like GA. Thus, is it not obvious that machines/algorithms will be…
The distinction is that the number of branches that manifest in games of incomplete information can become utterly massive, and then you add in 6-10 players at once, all playing at world class levels, and you have a real computation problem.
I mean maybe this is a trivial thing to solve for you, in which case kudos, but its pretty neat for a lot of onlookers(and participants).
Re: How A.I. Conquered Poker
#135Earlier quoted context omitted.
6 figures. Turns out there's a lot more (and less risky) money in software development than there is in poker. I gave up the professional poker life pretty early and actually made quite a lot more as a talented "amateur" with a Silicon Valley software dev salary that took away the risk of ruin constraints I had a pro. Plus I didn't really enjoy playing professionally anyways - it's pretty mindnumbingly boring to play…
Are you Paul P?
Guessing you're talking about extempore on HN, but no.
Re: How A.I. Conquered Poker
#136(Former pro and high stakes player, occasional solver developer) This is actually one of the best poker articles I've ever seen in generalist media. Not too clickbaity, reasonable high level overview of game theory, a (very accurate IMO) quote from old pro Erik Seidel about the state of the game just 15 years ago, a discussion on variance vs. EV and results, and most importantly, an emphasis on math, randomization te…
Good to see poker theory approaching the way I naturally thought when I played on PokerStars (before Chuck Schumer and co shut it all down for us). People used to make fun of me for playing limits and sucking out on people. And no limit I would have some crazy strategies to fake out a table and make them anger-bet into my connected straight flush draws, when I was “representing” a two pair etc. On large tables, often…
Cool tip thx. How did you do with this strategy?
Re: How A.I. Conquered Poker
#137(Former pro and high stakes player, occasional solver developer) This is actually one of the best poker articles I've ever seen in generalist media. Not too clickbaity, reasonable high level overview of game theory, a (very accurate IMO) quote from old pro Erik Seidel about the state of the game just 15 years ago, a discussion on variance vs. EV and results, and most importantly, an emphasis on math, randomization te…
Similar story here. I’ve always played, mostly online, before Black Friday (pretty sure I was a minor when it happened) but played all the offshore sites through college. Professional software career took off and bounced out, finally ~3y ago I decided to get back into it and I would only play challenging games (only thing challenging about a 1/3 or tourneys is the grind). So, started with 2/5, within a week was playi…
When you say tech industry pays more, I'm assuming the effective long-run hourly earnings of poker players is way less glamorous than it looks from an outsider seeing highlights? Doing a basic google search led me to https://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/ranking/6737/, which seems to suggest that 81 players earned over 1mm USD in 2021. But presumably those players don't earn that YoY, and even if they did, plenty more software engineers earn > 1mm USD per annum, so this seems to support your conclusion. OTOH, I have no insight to the home games or whatever sources are not included in these rankings, so I'd love to hear a little more.
Re: How A.I. Conquered Poker
#138Earlier quoted context omitted.
It doesn't even matter if you can calculate multiplayer equilibrium. It's not the solution the same way it is in heads-up. You can still lose if you employ the equilibrium in multiplayer unlike in HU.
That's not true in practice for poker. Pluribus showed that if you run CFR in multiplayer poker you get a solution that works great in practice. Multiple equilibria are certainly a theoretical issue for many games, but poker conveniently isn't one of them.
It's not about multiple equilibria but about (often unintended) collusion.
Examples of that affecting poker games are very well known. One frequently occurring example was discussed in online community 15-20 years ago (BTN raises in a limit Holdem game, SB calls too much which hurts both the SB and the button giving equity to BB).
I don't think you're correct saying it doesn't affect poker as people were able to notice and analyze this before solvers. It's true though that no-limit Holdem as played today (two blinds,no ante,deep stacks) is likely not strongly affected by the phenomena. I don't agree Pluribus experiment shows much when it comes up practical play. Not enough variety of skill levels, not enough hands and not enough time for metagame (people adjusting to how others play) to develop. I do agree pure equilibrium play is most likely not terrible in cash game nlhe but definitely not in poker in general.
Re: How A.I. Conquered Poker
#139Earlier quoted context omitted.
6 figures. Turns out there's a lot more (and less risky) money in software development than there is in poker. I gave up the professional poker life pretty early and actually made quite a lot more as a talented "amateur" with a Silicon Valley software dev salary that took away the risk of ruin constraints I had a pro. Plus I didn't really enjoy playing professionally anyways - it's pretty mindnumbingly boring to play…
Are you Paul P?
Nah, he's def Tony G
Re: How A.I. Conquered Poker
#140Earlier quoted context omitted.
Bots are superhuman in no-limit Texas hold'em. Libratus beat top humans in two-player in 2017 and Pluribus beat top humans in six-player in 2019: https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.aao1733 https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.aay2400 It's shocking that the reporter didn't mention these results or anything else more recent than 2015.
The article was fascinating but honestly read like an ad for PioSolver
The journalist who contacted me told me he did so because the software keeps coming up when he talked to pro players. While it's certainly not one to advance the science the most (talk to Noam Brown if you want that), not the fastest (talk to Oskari Tammelin about that), it's still very popular and the first to get big following. It changed the game and got into the online poker culture. I am quite proud of that and I think it's deserved to be mentioned a lot in an article about how computers changed poker.