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The Gold Standard and the Great Depression (1997)

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131–140 of 149 posts

Re: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression (1997)

#131
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That seems like another way of saying that a gold standard is inflexible and impractical and can't represent the actual economy particularly well

The inflexibility of a gold standard is a benefit. More gold or an increase in gold value is required to represent greater wealth. The gold can be traded for or mined. However, the gold standard ensures that the dollar you earn today maintains purchasing power for as long as you care to keep it. Your gold backed dollar can't be made worthless in a generation by the excess of politicians seeking money, power, and cont…

>However, the gold standard ensures that the dollar you earn today maintains purchasing power for as long as you care to keep it

That's basically a concession to the old at the expense of the young. We basically have the gold standard in housing and it's not good.

Re: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression (1997)

#132
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not an exposure. You keep using technical terms in order to sound knowledgeable, but it's obvious that you don't know what they mean.

Yes, it is. If you have a deposit in a bank, you are a creditor of that bank. If the bank fails, you might not get that money back. Also, maybe try to form an actual coherent argument, rather than continuing to claim I don't know what I'm talking about.

Sure, so you want to hedge against a bank run (even though bank deposits are insured)? I don't think you're making any sense but, anyway... what kind of hedging instrument do you intend to use against a bank run and why?

Re: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression (1997)

#133
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd argue that the only person stealing purchasing power from you is yourself. Read some books, get an education, have ambition, work hard, take care of yourself. If you did that, instead of blaming others for your failures, your purchasing power would be fine.

My purchasing power is fine, because I became a bitcoiner. I was pretty angry during the financial crisis though, and am letting it come through in this thread.

Are you sure? How old were you in 2008?

Re: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression (1997)

#134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So far the fiat currency system has been a part of the most rapid progression of technology and trade in recorded history. There is an argument to be made that the progress would have occurred regardless of the currency system in place. That is to say it is nothing more than coincidence that fiat was in place during this period of progress. The progress is the result of capitalism not the currency system. However,…

Globalization has exploded since we got off the gold standard. It was heavily slowing the world economy down. There just isn't enough gold to represent all the amazing things people want to do.

With globalisation happening about the same time as coming off the gold standard I understand the conclusion. There are two flaws in the logic leading there. First, globalisation is the result of the technonogy, particularly transportation and materials, available. Second, even with a gold standard the value of gold increases over time. A single unit of gold is able to buy more as the economy it represents grows. On the ground, with dollars pegged at an amount of gold, you would see this as prices decreasing as they were for the history of the US gold standard.

Re: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression (1997)

#135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who said economic growth cannot happen on a gold standard? I said it's a useless technology for civilizations that have better ones. You responded with an incoherent argument and a claim that 1850-early 1900s is a time period that shows the value of representative currency. Instead of the straw man and the red herrings, please explain how abandoning the gold standard in order to survive the Civil War is evidence of h…

going back to your original point: > [the gold standard] is a terrible idea for civilizations that have technologies like accounting systems and currencies that are difficult to counterfeit. Tying economic expansion to the ability to mine and store one type of element doesn't make any sense. Hear me out. I will first start a counterstatement with two supporting points (I'm sure it's easy to find more supporting point…

> It is a terrible idea for a civilization that exists in a system with finite resources to use a currency that is unbounded and exponential. The disconnect between the nominal economic substrate and raw reality will lead to broad class theft and environmental destruction.

Well, this is certainly a different argument than "1850-early 1900s is a great example of the benefits of the gold standard"

> 1. For class theft, don't just take my word for it, take Paul Krugman's

Or, take his word on why the gold standard is a bad idea? (written before the EU was a thing)

"Why not emulate our great-grandfathers and tie our currencies to gold? Very few economists think this would be a good idea. The argument against it is one of pragmatism, not principle. First, a gold standard would have all the disadvantages of any system of rigidly fixed exchange rates--and even economists who are enthusiastic about a common European currency generally think that fixing the European currency to the dollar or yen would be going too far. Second, and crucially, gold is not a stable standard when measured in terms of other goods and services. On the contrary, it is a commodity whose price is constantly buffeted by shifts in supply and demand that have nothing to do with the needs of the world economy..."

> As for environmental destruction, surely you can see how putting society on a compounding treadmill of devaluation encourages consumption as a driver of economic growth (if we fail to post a positive growth number, we WILL have at least a transient economic crisis), and it's patently evident that we buy more, shittier things that need to be replaced, because there is diminished opportunity cost for saving your money to buy something better and more robust: but hey, it's good for circular flow.

I agree that inflation can drive part of the problem in the constant pursuit of growth and profit at the expense of the environment. The problem is that moving to a gold backed currency wouldn't change any of that. We know this because the regulations introduced by the EPA in 1970, just as the US moved completely off the gold standard, are the reason that the US has cleaner air and water. Along with the fact that corporations externalized the environmental costs of our consumption habits to Southeast Asia. None of that would be different if the US had stayed on the gold standard.

> Or, maybe you like environmental destruction and screwing the poor. If you do, you should probably say that up front, instead of hiding it behind difficult-to-unpack-ese like Krugman does.

Ignoring the mild annoyance of this insinuation, it remains completely ridiculous. What was the life expectancy in the height of the gold standard? What is it now? What countries are the most carbon neutral, the most environmentally sound, and have the highest standard of living? Are they using a fiat currency system?

The difference is in policy. Most of the EU is beating the US on every metric for the average person because of their laws. Individuals in those countries have rights to food, shelter, healthcare, and education, and because those governments are legitimate and relatively uncorrupted, those rights are not only recognized but realized. Having the ability to build homes, schools, and hospitals without having to dig gold out of the ground first is part of the reason why they are able to do it.

> in the small, probably cryptocurrencies (which burn to make CO2) are better than mining, which dumps mercury effluent into the environment, and maybe there will even be efficient cryptocurrencies that burn up less CO2.

Finally, we can agree. Gold makes about as much sense as cryptocurrency. When used as a mechanism to try and restrict the money supply for a given economy, they complicate the situation with zero benefits for the economy or the environment.

> But all are better than, say, an economic system that has the unboundedness property AND is propped up by paying off defense contractors that build depleted uranium tipped rounds that are dropped on civilians halfway around the world.

Please elaborate on how the gold standard would eliminate the problems of the military industrial complex and American imperialism.

Re: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression (1997)

#136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The inflexibility of a gold standard is a benefit. More gold or an increase in gold value is required to represent greater wealth. The gold can be traded for or mined. However, the gold standard ensures that the dollar you earn today maintains purchasing power for as long as you care to keep it. Your gold backed dollar can't be made worthless in a generation by the excess of politicians seeking money, power, and cont…

>However, the gold standard ensures that the dollar you earn today maintains purchasing power for as long as you care to keep it That's basically a concession to the old at the expense of the young. We basically have the gold standard in housing and it's not good.

Housing wouldn't cost a million$ if not for inflation. There has always been demand, and people always found ways to meet it. But with inflation, especially high rates, your mortgage was paid back with dollars worth less than when the house was first purchased or built.

How is this a concession to the old? Why is it that someone worked for 30 yrs to pay off their mortgage shouldn't get the same treatment, mainly "appreciation" due to inflation that everything else gets?

Honest question - is this the same argument we hear about "forgiving" student loans, meaning having people who didn't sign up for them, agree to them, utilize them, or even go to college, pay of the debts of those who did?

Re: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression (1997)

#137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Or, you can choose to reject the principle of "no taxation without representation", which if you are happy to do that explicitly and publically I will shut up. That "principle" covers some territory a lot broader than the specific way you're requesting it be interpreted. The idea that those born into a country cannot be held accountable for debts accrued before they were born—or anything relating to the situation o…

> but your tactic of trying to pin someone down with these words Sir, this is hacker news. Ok, but seriously, to put it in a less-memey way. Many of the posts that I post about topics where I feel like "the word must be spread" are performative but interesting . I actually don't give a shit about convincing the parent poster of mine. Most of those people are going to be closed minded, bias-confirming, and unreceptive…

> Sir, this is hacker news.

You make a very good point. I stand corrected. :-)

Re: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression (1997)

#138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I posted this yesterday. Food for thought. In 1964 you could take two silver dimes and purchase ~1 gallon of gas. Gas was ~20 cents per gallon. Dimes were 90% silver. Fast forward to 2021. You could take two silver dimes to a coin dealer, sell them for fiat currency, and purchase 1 gallon of gas. Gas is ~$3.50 per gallon, silver is ~$23 per oz, and 2 silver dimes from 1964 contain ~5grams of silver. But using 2021 di…

Gas is more expensive because fossil fuels are more difficult to extract, we have some environmental standards instead of none, consumption has skyrocketed, and there's an organization called OPEC that maximizes the price. Pretending that none of that would be true if dimes still had silver in them is ridiculous. If you had taken those same two 1964 dimes and put them in a DJIA index fund, you'd have $7. That's becau…

Precious metals are not typically considered as drivers of economic activity. They are used as hedges or backstops. Your $7 in an index fund after 57 yrs doesn't sound that productive being only 2x what the value of the silver is.

Re: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression (1997)

#139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The inflexibility of a gold standard is a benefit. More gold or an increase in gold value is required to represent greater wealth. The gold can be traded for or mined. However, the gold standard ensures that the dollar you earn today maintains purchasing power for as long as you care to keep it. Your gold backed dollar can't be made worthless in a generation by the excess of politicians seeking money, power, and cont…

> More gold or an increase in gold value is required to represent greater wealth. Not true. A restriction in supply can raise the price, and the discovery of new sources can lower it. Plus wealth is entirely subjective. Would you rather have a warehouse full of food, water, and ammunition during a crisis, or a warehouse full of gold? (Hint: people may not want to trade food for a soft metal that can't be fashioned in…

Yes, all of those bad things can happen. A gold standard is not perfect. The goal isn't to be perfect. It is to have a currency that is fair to the greatest number of people. Gold is a currency trusted by all, fiat is a currency of force.

In crisis I would rather have the food, water, and ammunition. What a silly strawman. A warehouse full of survival supplies is incredibly valuable during crisis but it is not durable and must be maintained when not in crisis. For the long term representation of wealth I would rather have a vault of gold just like every nation on the planet. Nearly everything else degrades in a fraction of a lifetime. Gold will be exactly the same after sitting untouched for millennia. For the long life of nations this is extremely important. For the comparatively short life of a human this is less important but still valuable.

A casino is the best analog that I can thing of at the moment. When you want to play in the economy of a casino you are required to change your dollars for chips. You have to trust that the casino is not going to steal your dollars and will actually give them back. They practice full reserve banking where every dollar represented by chips is in their vault. The same is true for a gold standard economy as practiced sans full reserve. Gold is the money, banks do the job of verifying gold and exchanging for easily carried and traded tokens, dollars. You have to trust that banks or governments aren't going to steal your gold. If you don't trust them you change your dollars back to gold. If a lot of people lose trust you get bank runs. With fractional reserve banking there isn't enough gold to pay back every dollar and you get crisis and bank failures.

With any currency its value comes down to trust. A gold standard allowed people a way to keep their wealth in a durable form in times of low trust with no conversion cost. It allowed people to "take their ball and go home" so to speak. No governments needed to trust another country's fiat. The money exchanged in trade had a real, verifiable, persistent value.

Yes, a gold standard has some problems. Barring straight barter with physical gold it is still the fairest most robust currency system humans have come up with. Whatever excuses the US Government gave for ending the gold standard it still acted unconstitutionally. The government was facing a damaged economy and dwindling gold reserves as people and countries redeemed dollars for gold. The government saw their dwindling gold reserves as a problem instead of a function of a gold standard. This is the same as a casino seeing a lot of people cashing chips in and seeing their dwindling cash supply as a problem. In both cases it is a loss of trust in the token issuer that caused their supply to dwindle. It wasn't a problem with the currency it was a lack of trust in the issuer that the issuer saw as a reduction in "their" money that needed to be stopped. It was never "their" money to start with. It always belonged to the people. The people were just taking their ball home.

Re: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression (1997)

#140
post #44

Compared with the OP and much of this thread, there is a simpler view: Here I outline Asset Bubbles, Fractional Reserve Banking, and the Money Supply 101: In the 1920s, the US blew a stock market bubble. Lots of people bought stocks on margin , that is, with loans from commercial banks and using the stock as collateral. The banks got the money not from "the Gold Standard" with so much attention in the OP but from fra…

Good write up. Bank runs mean nothing when operating on a 1-to-1 ratio. The shock itself is mathematically impossible without Fractional Reserve Banking.
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