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Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

nymag.com

131–140 of 227 posts

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A "bunch of crooks" is what you get in any market that operates without oversight or regulation. The real surprise would be if crypto was otherwise.

> A "bunch of crooks" is what you get in any market that operates without oversight or regulation. That's unfair. The lack of regulation will pretty much guarantee the existence of crooks in the market. That doesn't make all market participants crooks. I do participate in that market once in a while, try my damndest to respect the laws of the jurisdiction I live in, even when I passionately disagree with them. Also,…

That's unfair.

I'm not saying that mere participation makes you a crook.

The real crooks are those controlling and manipulating the game. Many (if not most) of those playing the game are just unsuspecting participants and are the ones most at risk of being hurt by it.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Such as? UK, NZ, CA, US, AU all at a quick check consider tax evasion a crime (not just a civil infraction).

> UK, NZ, CA, US, AU You mean the anglo world? Their laws all look the same. That doesn't make them moral or right. To answer your question, I am not 100% certain, but I believe CH falls in the category I describe.

CH has criminal prosecutions for tax fraud too.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#133
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many decades of economic growth speaks for the current economic model. A saying goes: pessimists get to be right, optimists get to be rich.

Another saying goes: Past performance is not indicative of future growth. YMMV...

With a good money printer growth is guaranteed.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#134
post #54
post #30

I'm really amazed at these comments. Every time Bitcoin goes through a major move, the "bubble" crowd comes out of the woodwork, while having done absolutely no effort in understanding what Bitcoin is.

> having done absolutely no effort in understanding what Bitcoin is To see its value, I don't need to make an effort to understand what a pear is, or a bar of gold, or a house. I and others have looked at Bitcoin, and its trillion dollar market cap (which means Bitcoins are worth more than JP Morgan Chase and Johnson and Johnson put together) and realized it has absolutely no value. At least subprime mortgages, 1999…

You use the word "value" in this comment to mean something different than the market price, but the definition isn't obvious to me. Maybe it's your personal values?

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#135
post #55
post #12

It has honestly surprised me that a bunch of people I thought were smart really think NFTs are a good long term investment. It clearly has no value beyond speculation and the bubble will pop.

I became convinced that NFTs are worth something after understanding that there is little difference between an outrageously expensive watch and a rare NFT. One shows off your wealth in person, the other will let you show it off online.

> I became convinced that NFTs are worth something after understanding that there is little difference between an outrageously expensive watch and a rare NFT.

> One shows off your wealth in person, the other will let you show it off online.

That's some pretty faulty logic, there. You're looking at it from the wrong end: it doesn't matter if you can imagine an object could be used as a wealth-status symbol, what actually matters is if it's actually recognized as one by a community with enough power for their recognition to matter.

Also, expensive status-bauble watches are stupid, too.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#136
post #8
post #5

Is it really a bubble or is it driven by market demands as more and more applications and use-cases emerge? In the end, a lot of the blockchain infrastructure relies on bitcoin hence it moves in sync. China's real estate market is a bubble because there is a excess of 500 million dwellings that are not needed.

> In the end, a lot of the blockchain infrastructure relies on bitcoin hence it moves in sync. Does it, though? I’m on the sidelines, but it seems like all the excitement/money flowing into crypto these days is into blockchains with higher transaction throughput and more advanced smart contract interpreters. I know there are some maxis trying to build things like DeFi and NFTs on Bitcoin but it seems to have really t…

As of this past week though, the price action is all in BTC reaching its ATH again of 60k+. Financial news is all about inflation, so I assume it's related buyers liking the fixed supply of BTC.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#137
post #12

It has honestly surprised me that a bunch of people I thought were smart really think NFTs are a good long term investment. It clearly has no value beyond speculation and the bubble will pop.

Oh but NFTs have a very clear value proposition: money laundering. They literally have no value other than what is attributed to them, so if you want to clean up some money you just have to buy an NFT with legit money for X, then sell it to yourself using less-than-legit money. Now you own all legit money, and have only spent some minor transaction fees.

Wow that means OpenSea is like the Silk Road of money laundering.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> so long as a lot of people don't cash out at once A lot of people can’t cash out at once. Teather isn’t obligated to redeem to USD, it’s not just a scam (them not having backing), it’s just overall an absurd situation. “Give me your money and I’ll give you a note that says I have your money, and then I’ll never give you the money back, but perhaps you can exchange the note to others for money?”

It's not obligated to redeem your USDT but it is obligated to redeem it for its customers (exchanges mainly). At least on paper it works like this: 1)exchanges need Tether so they get it from the Tether inc. while depositing equal amount of USD with them 2)if they don't need some of it anymore they can redeem it We know depositing USD part never happens. It's likely some shady paper or more likely some promises are d…

We know depositing USD part never happens.

Therein lies the fraud and the collusion between Tether and the exchanges in perpetrating it.

The grand fallacy of the crypto market is the idea that the exchanges are honest brokers and market makers just like in regulated markets --- despite the complete lack of oversight or regulation requiring as much.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#139
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The exact same thing happened with Ethereum (and crypto in general) in 2017. But look how much it's rebounded after that crash. I still don't think it's a good long term investment, but it's been an amazing way for some people to make life-changing money. Sadly, I'm not one of them.

It's a good investment dude. I'm not trying to shill or anything here but Ethereum is literally the "internet" of finance. It democratizes and brings access to basic financial building blocks like we've never before seen in history and truly anything can be built on it. Unironically it's the future of finance. Don't listen to the Luddites and cynics here. Do the research yourself and try it out for yourself and it be…

I love defi simply for the fact that I hold the keys to my money, not banks or a central entity.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#140
Overall, the experts cited in this article make weak points. There are legitimate concerns with crypto (which I would be happy to discuss if anyone wants to have sane dialogue), none of where really covered in depth.

> “My view is that bitcoin will ultimately end up going to zero. And I think we are in the final stages right now.”

Bitcoin's market value will never go to zero. Let me explain - bitcoin was borne out some internet guy's (we call him / her "Satoshi Nakamoto") idea of what money could be and how to implement it on the internet. It was not theorized in a white paper by PhD economists from MIT or U-Chicago. It proved itself in the internet's black market, and made its way to the main stream. It is fundamentally a bottom up proven technology, it did not come from the top down like the modern fiat dollar. In the event that bitcoin does not have value in the main stream, it will always have some value in the internet's dark market, and it won't be zero.

> “And the U.S. dollar is backed by the full faith of the United States. Does bitcoin have an army?”

Money does not need an army. The army gets paid in money, the money does not make the army. Humans traded in coinage before organized nation states or even city states. Contemplate this - what good is an army when they do not know who the anonymous holders of the internet money are? Who do they attack? And when the fiat money gets in inflated to zero, who protects the civilian government from a hungry and angry army that has all the guns?

> “Nothing is priced in bitcoin"

Bricks of cocaine are priced in bitcoin. So is fiat currency. I could go to a local bitcoin meetup and trade bitcoin for dollar bills, no KYC. I can do the same on the dark web, and have USPO deliver me dollars. That makes my bitcoin as good as cash, and everything is priced in cash. By the transitive property, bitcoin is cash.

> Despite a steep sell-off in May and the growing certainty that the Securities and Exchange Commission, the U.S. Treasury, and even the Department of Justice are getting ready to clamp down on the cryptocurrency world, retail and institutional investors alike have kept buying. When China announced on September 24 that it would ban all cryptocurrency activities, bitcoin fell less than 6 percent.

Fun fact - chairman of the SEC teaches courses on blockchain and crypto at MIT.[1] Doubtful that the US will go the way of China. And if it does, so what? The Chinese ban was a non-event. And if you think you can ban bitcoin, you do not understand bitcoin.

> “As I dug into the actual underpinnings, it just became very clear that what was actually going on was cultlike behavior with no real understanding of the asset or the economic implications for the model that it was proposing,” he says.

This is a better description for fiat currency than bitcoin.

> “What a crazy concept this is that we as a country embrace so many bright, young, talented people to come up with a replacement for our reserve currency,” he said at the Economic Club of Chicago.

..."so many smart, bright, young, talented people"...I think this quote speaks for itself.

> Bitcoin, its critics like to say, is nothing but electricity. “To tell me that something that’s constructed as a computer program, where you engage in some process of sitting there in front of your computer and, after a period of time and the expenditure of a bunch of electricity, a message appears on your screen that you have created something, that’s ridiculous,” Singer said on an investment podcast earlier this year. “It’s nothing.”

Yes, this how the bitcoin protocol defines the value of coins, but so does the fiat denomination that people are willing to pay for bitcoin. It's a traded market now, and that's where most of the value is coming from.

> As Roubini put it in the Goldman report, “Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have no income or utility, so there’s just no way to arrive at a fundamental value.”

Yes there is - go on a bitcoin exchange, see the fiat exchange rate for bitcoin, that's the fundamental value.

> He also scoffs at those who call it digital gold. “Bitcoin could disappear one day, but gold won’t.”

Highly unlikely that a globally distributed electronic ledger that can fit on like 500gb hhard drive would ever disappear. SMH, these people need to do more research on the subject of crypto.

> Green estimates that 40 percent of bitcoin’s real-world transactions are still criminal in nature (don’t forget, the first killer app was black-market bazaar Silk Road), including recent ransomware hackings. Bulls argue that the real number is a lot lower. A report by industry firm Chainalysis pegged it at less than one percent in 2020 — less than than comparable figures for cash.

Mr Green is lying and ignorant on the subject of bitcoin.

> “I would broadly describe what’s going on with El Salvador as they’re trying to make money-laundering the national business,” says Green, who contends that El Salvador is at risk of becoming a narco state.

Holding morality, legality, and potential human suffering aside, what El Salvador is going to be good for the value of bitcoin. Sad but true.

> hedge-fund mogul Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates, who dabbles in cryptocurrencies, said he believed regulators would “kill” bitcoin if it became too successful.

Again, if you think you can ban bitcoin, you do not understand bitcoin.

> “I can see why governments need to fight this thing. They are probably going to shut it down at some point.”

The fact that governments already see it as a threat (China, especially) signals the vulnerability they see in the legacy fiat system.

> Beyond all the specific arguments and counterarguments, the fact remains that those from the “big short” set making the case against bitcoin are generally not making the same kind of real-life short bets that made them so much money in 2008.

Face palm Speaks for itself.

> “You can’t be short it in scale,” agrees the short seller. Like some of the others who fundamentally dislike it, he even has a small position in bitcoin. “If it goes up, I’ll make a little bit of money. If it goes to zero, I’ll be so happy, I will gladly lose the money.”

Hubris and schadenfreude - these do not mix well for the incumbents in a legacy, obsolete system.

*Fundamentally, bitcoin and the mechanics of crypto are challenging how people think about money - what it is and how it fits into our lives. That is a good thing.*

[1] https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/sloan-school-of-management/15-s1...

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