Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019) • Hacker News Board

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#131

Post by swarnie » Mon, Sep 06, 2021, 7:40 AM UTC

dQw4w9WgXcQ wrote: post #56

eplanit wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a US citizen, I've been wondering for almost 10 years now if we're edging towards a new civil war. In the past 5 or so, I've been worrying almost equally about the state of global affairs setting the stage for potential world war. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, we have been in a relatively stable world (9/11, Iraq, and Afghanistan notwithstanding -- none of them world war scale), but it now feels ever les…

Yea that's not a conspiracy theory at all. CCP/Russia most definitely have heavily targeted campaigns to sow disunity via the whole "USA is a dumpster fire" and "we're so divided" nonsense all over social media sites like FB/Twitter and Reddit. Of course Reddit being Reddit and so forth you get regular Americans gobbling it up and amplifying. Even worse when late-night hosts with big audiences do it. The strength of…

But you are pretty divided from an outside perspective.

You still haven't universally grasped very simple things the rest of the world nailed almost a century ago. Little things like "vaccines are good", "Nazis are bad" or "Universal healthcare is a basic human right"

I get its a pretty young country all things considered but these are fundamental basics.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#132

Post by diordiderot » Mon, Sep 06, 2021, 7:40 AM UTC

Isinlor wrote: post #125

no_wizard wrote: post #8

Perhaps not entire civilization collapse, pending nuclear arsenals unleashed, but I think we are edging ever closer to massive social upheaval, what shape of this I am unsure about. To quote an adjacent article that was mentioned in this one: How Western Civilization Could Collapse > Eventually, the working population crashes because the portion of wealth allocated to them is not enough, followed by collapse of the e…

The world is better off today in basically every way than it was 100 years ago, and almost unimaginably better than it was 200 years ago. The worst 10% today do about as well as majority of West was doing back then. And the condition of the poor is improving rapidly. The places were it is not true, it is due to wars. But well, this is perspective of a Polish person. My country lost 25% of the population during wars w…

Your husband takes out a variable rate mortgage 120% of your homes value to spend on luxury goods, Buys a g-wagon, and starts embezzling from his company. Instead of paying for utilities you steal then from neighbors. To save on garbage collection you fly tip. The last 5 years have been wonderful for you quality of life.

You shouldn't question your situation because things are 'better'.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#133

Post by roenxi » Mon, Sep 06, 2021, 7:41 AM UTC

eplanit wrote: post #33

no_wizard wrote: post #8

Perhaps not entire civilization collapse, pending nuclear arsenals unleashed, but I think we are edging ever closer to massive social upheaval, what shape of this I am unsure about. To quote an adjacent article that was mentioned in this one: How Western Civilization Could Collapse > Eventually, the working population crashes because the portion of wealth allocated to them is not enough, followed by collapse of the e…

As a US citizen, I've been wondering for almost 10 years now if we're edging towards a new civil war. In the past 5 or so, I've been worrying almost equally about the state of global affairs setting the stage for potential world war. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, we have been in a relatively stable world (9/11, Iraq, and Afghanistan notwithstanding -- none of them world war scale), but it now feels ever les…

> If one has to have either a civil war or a world war (bizarre choice), a world war would actually serve to unite us, although our existing division is a weak starting place. A civil war destroys us from within, full stop.

If those are your options, what is wrong with being destroyed from within? The two sides can split the country and each get a share - say, in proportion to their numbers.

The British aren't exactly suffering after their empire dissolved. Life still looks pretty good for them.

There is no reason to unite people who do not want to be united.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#134

Post by nostrademons » Mon, Sep 06, 2021, 7:42 AM UTC

eplanit wrote: post #33

no_wizard wrote: post #8

Perhaps not entire civilization collapse, pending nuclear arsenals unleashed, but I think we are edging ever closer to massive social upheaval, what shape of this I am unsure about. To quote an adjacent article that was mentioned in this one: How Western Civilization Could Collapse > Eventually, the working population crashes because the portion of wealth allocated to them is not enough, followed by collapse of the e…

As a US citizen, I've been wondering for almost 10 years now if we're edging towards a new civil war. In the past 5 or so, I've been worrying almost equally about the state of global affairs setting the stage for potential world war. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, we have been in a relatively stable world (9/11, Iraq, and Afghanistan notwithstanding -- none of them world war scale), but it now feels ever les…

Not mutually exclusive. I could easily see a future where the breakup of the U.S. essentially sparks WW3 as every regional power takes the fall of the global hegemon as license to make war on its neighbors. Could totally see China taking Taiwan and eventually Japan, India and Pakistan erupting in bloodshed, Russia invading Eastern Europe, [the Middle East is already in flames], etc.

It also wouldn't surprise me if the CCP or Russia or both are conducting propaganda campaigns to break up the U.S. without them firing a shot. These strike me as very shortsighted; the threat of an external adversary is pretty much the only thing holding large empires together, so both of those are next on the break-up list of the U.S. splits. (Arguably, the primary factor behind political divisions in the U.S. was the breakup of the Soviet Union; without the external threat of communism we have nothing to remind us that we're more alike than different.)

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#135

Post by diordiderot » Mon, Sep 06, 2021, 7:42 AM UTC

kortilla wrote: post #76

korantu wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is income inequality even good measure in the forst place? More and more people of this world are rising out of poverty, and getting education, why specifically does uphieval would occur?

No, it’s not a good measure, but it is a useful tool for people to build support for political upheaval that wouldn’t otherwise be justified.

The thing is, it's all relevant. You can't pretend human psychology doesn't exist

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#136

Post by streamofdigits » Mon, Sep 06, 2021, 7:44 AM UTC

Its not a civilization crisis its a governance crisis (which is an important but small fraction of what constitutes a "civilization"). The adage "we have the politicians that we deserve" is true in the long term average but it may well not be true at each time-step.

The political system that produces governance is in itself a piece of social technology (set of laws, procedures, morals, behaviors etc) and it can easily become unfit-for-purpose. Why? because one of its primary tasks is to perpetuate an existing order. If it overdoes this "stabilization" task (that is, ignores material shifts in reality) it can hold society hostage. That period of disconnect between what society needs and what its organizational tech is offering can feel gut-wrenching and surreal.

All of the dysfunctions of the current era, e.g. environmental un-sustainability, absurd levels of inequality, rampant surveillance capitalism are well recognized and studied and, by-and-large, blueprints for solutions exist. Dig to find what is standing in the way and it is invariably i) an aged male politician and/or corporate leader who ii) has built a long career over decades knitting power networks with similar "winners" of his generation iii) is incapable of reinventing / invalidating himself and iv) will only be forced away from the cookie jar.

Maybe what is happening is not civilizational collapse but enormous resources and human talent (world-wide) are hostage to near idiotic (as in: non-adapted) political arrangements.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#137

Post by mellavora » Mon, Sep 06, 2021, 7:50 AM UTC

thow-58d4e8b wrote: post #109

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a very literal abd misleading reading. The collapse in the West had very specific observable results including: * A trade crash across the Western empire * A crash in manufacturing * Widespread famine * A retreat from cities and villas * The withdrawal of the military * The withdrawal of centralised government influence * Their replacement by regional warlords * A huge decrease in civil stability * A huge incr…

To steel-man parent's post, usually it's not that civilization per se collapses, the collapse is better characterized as a loss of state capacity. The important distinction being - technology wasn't lost. This framing is also relevant to present-day conversations. Claiming that our civilization is collapsing makes people eyes roll. Claim that we're losing state capacity is a message people are more receptive to.

except a great deal of technology was lost.

One of Hobbs insights is that in an era with a non-functional state, the rewards of technological investment are few. Also loss of state capacity has severe impact on international trade; recognize that trade also brings ideas and innovation. And any technology that relies on supply chains becomes challenging, any technology that relies on high levels of education becomes challenging.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#138

Post by mellavora » Mon, Sep 06, 2021, 7:51 AM UTC

thrdbndndn wrote: post #44

quickthrower2 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel it’s the opposite - everyone expects things to go on as they are. At least in stable countries. We are hard wired not to expect the world to end.

Agreed. By the way, is there any sort of memoirs from ordinary people before WW2? Like did people at the time see it coming 1 years, 5 years etc. before?

The bond market famously did not see WWI coming. And WWI was arguably much more catastrophic that WWII.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#139

Post by coldtea » Mon, Sep 06, 2021, 7:53 AM UTC

Isinlor wrote: post #125

no_wizard wrote: post #8

Perhaps not entire civilization collapse, pending nuclear arsenals unleashed, but I think we are edging ever closer to massive social upheaval, what shape of this I am unsure about. To quote an adjacent article that was mentioned in this one: How Western Civilization Could Collapse > Eventually, the working population crashes because the portion of wealth allocated to them is not enough, followed by collapse of the e…

The world is better off today in basically every way than it was 100 years ago, and almost unimaginably better than it was 200 years ago. The worst 10% today do about as well as majority of West was doing back then. And the condition of the poor is improving rapidly. The places were it is not true, it is due to wars. But well, this is perspective of a Polish person. My country lost 25% of the population during wars w…

>The world is better off today in basically every way than it was 100 years ago, and almost unimaginably better than it was 200 years ago.

... in the kind of metrics people like Hans Rosling of Steven Pinker care about, when taking quantitative state-produced stats at face value, and with naive extrapolation (and ignoring statistical fluctuations, black swans, etc).

E.g. "the condition of the poor is improving rapidly. The places were it is not true, it is due to wars". Global warming is already a big factor and is only expected to be more so in the future.

And that's not even before any real battle for resources such as water, crops, and dwindling minerals start, mass immigration due to climate change brings its own conflicts and challenges, the decline of the US hegemony brings forth new hegemonical and tons of peripheral claims, and lets not even count inflation and other pressures (including boomer-era people coming to retirement age en masse with lots of savings issues in the US, and broken pension systems in Europe). I haven't even mentioned a possible permanent (or long term) covid mutations situation (we're already 2 years in, and measures already had a huge impact on economies).

>Now we live in the EU. I have extremely hard time imagining my Swedish or German colleagues trying to kill me.

Not to make it sound like equivalent times, but jewish people had an extremely hard time imagining their German co-patriots would try to kill them too, plenty of such historical accounts from pre/early WWII, even up to the point they were already dealing with force registration in ethnicity lists, deportations, and so on.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#140

Post by qsort » Mon, Sep 06, 2021, 7:55 AM UTC

diordiderot wrote: post #132

Isinlor wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world is better off today in basically every way than it was 100 years ago, and almost unimaginably better than it was 200 years ago. The worst 10% today do about as well as majority of West was doing back then. And the condition of the poor is improving rapidly. The places were it is not true, it is due to wars. But well, this is perspective of a Polish person. My country lost 25% of the population during wars w…

Your husband takes out a variable rate mortgage 120% of your homes value to spend on luxury goods, Buys a g-wagon, and starts embezzling from his company. Instead of paying for utilities you steal then from neighbors. To save on garbage collection you fly tip. The last 5 years have been wonderful for you quality of life. You shouldn't question your situation because things are 'better'.

What does this have to do with anything? Most of the West (let alone most of the rest of the world) is far better off than it was even just 50 years ago by almost every single metric you can conceive.

It's hard to believe it's due to financial games exclusively: people are better off in real terms.

Inequality is a problem because when members of your community are living in very different conditions, the cohesion of said community is undermined, but worrying about inequality is the archetypical first world problem: a problem nonetheless, but a problem that presumes you've come a long way.