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Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

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Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#131

Post by ashildr »

tracyhenry wrote: post #36
linuxhansl wrote: post #17

Before anyone draws the wrong conclusions... 78.8% of the population above 12 are vaccinated. The remaining 21.2% make up about 40% of all hospitalizations. The vaccines are incredibly effective and the situation in Israel does by no means indicate that they are not. Edit: Fixed 11.2% to 21.2%.

I will get downvoted... but really, 60% of the hospitalizations come from vaccinated population, does that really count as "incredibly effective"? Is that really what people were hoping for when Pfizer & Moderna announced 94%+ effectiveness?

> I will get downvoted... but really,

Can we pelase just automatically downvote all posts starting like this?

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#132

Post by ashildr »

higherup wrote: post #108
jayd16 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're getting down voted because you're falling into a statistical fallacy. For example, If 100% of the population was vaccinated, by definition 100% of those in the hospital would be vaccinated. That gives you no information on the effectiveness of the vaccine itself.

So even if 100% vaccination does not stop surges in covid hospitalisations, vaccines won't be considered ineffective, right? Jeez, what was these vaccines meant for originally? Just wanted to expose a flaw in this logic that seem to be repeated Ad nauseam

Why even stop smoking if it does not stop 100% of all cases of cancer?

The more people are vaccinated the less people will become infected and will be spread the virus at any time. The less people are spreaders the less breakthrough infections can happen. It is a feedback loop and not really hard to understand.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#133

Post by higherup »

ashildr wrote: post #132
higherup wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So even if 100% vaccination does not stop surges in covid hospitalisations, vaccines won't be considered ineffective, right? Jeez, what was these vaccines meant for originally? Just wanted to expose a flaw in this logic that seem to be repeated Ad nauseam

Why even stop smoking if it does not stop 100% of all cases of cancer? The more people are vaccinated the less people will become infected and will be spread the virus at any time. The less people are spreaders the less breakthrough infections can happen. It is a feedback loop and not really hard to understand.

>Why even stop smoking if it does not stop 100% of all cases of cancer?

If the intend to ban smoking in a population was to reduce the incidence of lung cancer, and the incidence does not drop after smoking ban, then ban was useless.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#134

Post by candiodari »

higherup wrote: post #133
ashildr wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why even stop smoking if it does not stop 100% of all cases of cancer? The more people are vaccinated the less people will become infected and will be spread the virus at any time. The less people are spreaders the less breakthrough infections can happen. It is a feedback loop and not really hard to understand.

>Why even stop smoking if it does not stop 100% of all cases of cancer? If the intend to ban smoking in a population was to reduce the incidence of lung cancer, and the incidence does not drop after smoking ban, then ban was useless.

On the other hand if it does drop, and the death toll drops by a lot (like in Israel) ... then you're argument is akin to:

"Why stop hitting people with cars when the people hit don't die in 100% of cases ?"

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#135

Post by mthoms »

charbonneau wrote: post #130
mthoms wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you really think scenarios like this could account for skewing the data by a multiple of 9 ? Come on. >Without this information, it's tough to draw conclusions. Oh please. This data overwhelmingly shows that vaccinated people (>60) have better outcomes than non-vaccinated people(>60). The only debate is by how much.

No, it was an extreme example to better express the issue: We do not know why they're not vaccinated. We do not know their medical history. This isn't a randomized controlled trial. More realistic example: According to this study [1], 4.0% of US citizens (>80) are immunocompromised. We know that ~5.8% of Israelis (>80) are not vaccinated. Is it possible that the unvaccinated in this age cohort have more serious pre-e…

None of the reasons you cited come anywhere near to reasonably accounting for a nine-fold difference. You're really reaching. If you can't take something away from a 9x difference (vaxed vs. non-vaxed) I don't what to tell you.

Better data would be great, but based on your anti-vax, anti-lockdown, anti-science, comment history I'm not convinced that would be enough for you.

I'm not interested in debating people with an obvious idealogical agenda, so good day to you.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#136

Post by charbonneau »

mthoms wrote: post #135
charbonneau wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it was an extreme example to better express the issue: We do not know why they're not vaccinated. We do not know their medical history. This isn't a randomized controlled trial. More realistic example: According to this study [1], 4.0% of US citizens (>80) are immunocompromised. We know that ~5.8% of Israelis (>80) are not vaccinated. Is it possible that the unvaccinated in this age cohort have more serious pre-e…

None of the reasons you cited come anywhere near to reasonably accounting for a nine-fold difference. You're really reaching. If you can't take something away from a 9x difference (vaxed vs. non-vaxed) I don't what to tell you. Better data would be great, but based on your anti-vax, anti-lockdown, anti-science, comment history I'm not convinced that would be enough for you. I'm not interested in debating people with…

Since I'm an anti-science woman on a quest to spread my anti-vax agenda, I've taken a look at the raw data.

We're talking about 137 unvaccinated & 268 vaccinated patients >60 with severe disease (What kind of disease? Who cares, am I right?)

So, based on this enormous (!) sample size with one (!) confounding factor (#FuckMedicalHistory), we conclude that of course there is an undeniable nine-fold difference.

Why are we even doing randomized controlled trials? Just observe 137 & 268 patients retrospectively and frame critics as ideologues. A final word from an anti-vax activist:

> Conversely, there was concern that observational data obtained from nonrandomized studies after vaccine deployment could yield unreliable answers. Observational studies are subject to substantial biases and are much less amenable to unambiguous interpretation. Their limitations are of particular concern during this public health emergency, because vaccinated and unvaccinated people will differ in their risk of exposure to infection and of serious disease, partly because of fluctuating attack rates and because during early phases of vaccine deployment, vaccinees may well be at particular risk of infection. In these circumstances, even carefully analyzed observational studies can yield misleading answers about safety and efficacy. In addition, unrelated events that occur by chance after vaccination may be incorrectly attributed to the vaccine, and such anecdotes may be deliberately promulgated by groups opposed to vaccination. [1]

[1] https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2033538

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#137

Post by Isinlor »

Dwelve wrote: post #122
jayd16 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're getting down voted because you're falling into a statistical fallacy. For example, If 100% of the population was vaccinated, by definition 100% of those in the hospital would be vaccinated. That gives you no information on the effectiveness of the vaccine itself.

Can we stop calling everything an "fallacy" when you're just trying to say he's wrong? That aside what you're saying doesn't address the issue at all. You have a clear relation between two groups and an outcome and those relations clearly show that it was a bad choice to pretend we can lockdown until a miracle cure happens. Let's put it this way, did you expect the outcome to be what it currently is? We have MORE dea…

I have track record of making predictions on Metaculus.com . And yeah, the new variants were a suprise. We were expecting sars-cov-2 to evolve slower than influenza. I think this will still hold. But from my experience with generic algorithms I also knew that evolution happens the quickest after some breakthrough, when the new solution is not yet optimal. The issue is that we don't know what optimum looks like for this virus.

Besides that experts were also telling us that immunity from vaccine will likely fade.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#138

Post by woofie11 »

ekianjo wrote: post #101
linuxhansl wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

R0 is for the delta variant is 6 - 7, ergo herd immunity (1-1/R0) is 0.833 - 0.857. So, yes, it kinda works like that.

Except that vaccinations dont stop the transmission.

Yeah. The math is wonky. Vaccinations reduce transmission by about 50%. They don't reach herd immunity even at 100% vaccination, but they do help. Vaccinations + N95 masks + modest social distancing likely would do it.

But we'll probably do vaccinations, wait for more aggressive mutations, add facemasks, wait for more aggressive mutations, and so on, until we have a super-virus.

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