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Why North America's killer heat scares me

bbc.co.uk

131–140 of 193 posts

Re: Why North America's killer heat scares me

#131
post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Smallpox. With a high enough vaccination rate, even a disease with R0 of 20 can go away (COVID19 has an R0 of 3 to 6, maybe 9 if we include Delta variant). We've literally eradicated a more difficult and deadly disease before. I'm not saying we need to eradicate COVID19, but its absolutely within our power.

Unlike smallpox, SARS-CoV-2 has animal reservoirs. So eradication is not a feasible goal. But widespread vaccination can minimize the long term death toll.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cowpox

The relationship between Smallpox and Cowpox was well known even in the 1700s. (Though the concept of infectious diseases was not understood until the late 1800s, the people who hung around cows a lot didn't die of Smallpox as much).

Turns out that Cowpox was the same viral-family as Smallpox, and that Cowpox could be used to lessen the effect of Smallpox.

So there were absolutely animal reservoirs of the Smallpox viral family. The disease was shown to hop from different species (from humans to cows and vice versa).

Re: Why North America's killer heat scares me

#132

Respectfully, I’m getting fatigued from hearing about climate changes. Not because I don’t care, but because I feel powerless to do anything major about it. For all the recycling I’ve done, a single factory can undo in just a day. Being defeatist isn’t exactly productive, but hearing that calamities are happening on a daily basis doesn’t help much either. I really do think the only way this’ll get better is after som…

The dust bowl wasn’t addressed until the dust made it to Washington [1]. I suspect we’re not going to see real climate change mitigation in the US until Capitol Hill is flooded with sea water (elevation: 79ft).

Although changes to individual actions are needed to solve the climate crisis, the impact of individual actions will be minimal, and big policy changes are needed to make meaningful impacts.

The things that are actually working to produce the small policy changes we have seen so far, such as the green new deal, are protest movements like Extinction Rebellion and the Sunrise Movement [2].

I am seriously entertaining the idea of devoting much of my time to influencing policy. I believe that when it’s not just students and young people being arrested at protests but mainstream professionals, we may see some more serious changes. But I’m not terribly hopeful either.

[1] http://mallhistory.org/items/show/274

[2] https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how-to-save-a-planet/i...

Re: Why North America's killer heat scares me

#133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who is to blame for outsourced manufacturing then? If one country consumes a vast amount of goods from another, are they not also accountable for that other country’s emissions?

If you truly believe it's this dire, does it matter? It's up to that country to cut emissions even if they accept that job on behalf of other countries. But first, lets start on just not dumping plastic into oceans, building more coal plants, and generally not cutting emissions at all (China) Then we can worry on the manufacturing like cement and steel (I believe we should make our own steel anyway) The more stuff we…

This is an global issue it's up to everyone to lower emissions, exporting all your factories to China has been the solution for all of those countries. We can not blame China for that.

Re: Why North America's killer heat scares me

#134
post #72
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Making money comes first in this world, and only then comes the realization if our kids or grandkids still have a habitable world. Guess up until now it’s an abstraction people couldn’t imagine. Despite years of warning. Recently been thinking we should reform old style political parties. Instead we get to directly vote for ideological topics which we can vote on, and politicians/parties who adhere to them. So instea…

>Recently been thinking we should reform old style political parties. Instead we get to directly vote for ideological topics which we can vote on, and politicians/parties who adhere to them. I'm not sure whether it's that. Addressing climate change might be a popular policy, but spending money to address climate change doesn't seem to be. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27686289

Gas tax is particularly regressive. People with lower incomes have less access to electric cars, charging infrastructure, and real estate with convenient commutes.

Re: Why North America's killer heat scares me

#135

If you point out recent coldness records, you will be lectured about the difference between weather and climate. I think the real issue may be the human delusion that things staying the same is normal (perhaps because of the short life span of humans), and more recently in scientific terms, that averages are normal. About this article I find it odd that it cites Thatcher, of all people. Surely the information she use…

Localized coldness records that are the result of the polar vortex breaking apart over the arctic and sending masses of cold air south. They are accompanied by heat waves and records in the arctic. The 80s information and forecasts were actually pretty decent in terms of the observed warming levels so far. What is a shame is that they were not pessimistic enough regarding the feedback loops we are now aware of.

Re: Why North America's killer heat scares me

#136
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And everyone stopped trying to link events through any sort of rationale. Hurricane? Climate change. Wild fire? Not forest management. Climate change. 100 year freeze? It's only happened once in our lifetime, and once in the early 1900s, but climate change! Heat wave. Climate change. Basically just replace climate change with "God is angry" because science has nothing to do with it, otherwise you'd hear attempts to l…

Cliff Mass, Professor of Atmospheric Science at the University of Washington and chief scientist of the Northwest Modeling Consortium mentioned in his recent blog posts that the heat wave was a perfect storm of factors like compression from sinking air coming off the West slopes of the Cascades. He also said ( https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/06/incredible-temperatur... ): > Is global warming contributing to this…

> So without global warming, a location that was 104F would have been 102F. Still a severe heat wave, just slightly less intense.

So he claims global warming is contributing to the heatwave (by increasing it by 2 degrees, not causing it). He got to report the science and keep his grant. Smart!

Re: Why North America's killer heat scares me

#137
It's all well and good for us folks in the West to talk about reducing consumption, but the reality check we need to hear is that the "West" is no more than 20% of humanity (give or take, depending on how you count).

Like it or not, the remainder of humanity is rapidly industrializing. First, no amount of lifestyle changes in the West is going to offset the pollution and environmental degradation this could cause. Second, neither you nor me are in a position to tell them that they can't also have the trappings of a Western-level middle-class lifestyle once they can afford it.

If humanity wants to get serious about climate change, we need to think big. Really big. Global-scale big.

First: energy. How can we get the whole world converted to 100% solar and geothermal in the next 10 years? No more oil, no more gas, no more coal, no more ICEs -- there needs to be a global moratorium on fossil fuel tech to stop CO2 emissions. We should be mass-producing and deploying solar panels like there's no tomorrow. We should be giving them away to people (and countries) who will install and use them. Let's help industrializing countries leap-frog fossil fuels and go straight to renewables.

Second: water. Once we solve the energy problem, we're gonna need large-scale desalinization plants. We'll want to make so much green energy that desalinizing and pumping ocean water will be cheaper than pumping it from aquifers and rivers.

Third: food. Forget about "organic" food -- we need GMOs that resist pests, take less water to grow, and can put up with higher heat and lower quality soil. We'll need either a green way of producing meats, or a really high quality meat substitute, because humanity's appetite for it isn't gonna decrease anytime soon. At the same time, it needs to become "cool" to be vegetarian or vegan, in the way that Teslas made EVs "cool."

Fourth: shelter. Find your local NIMBYs and run them out of town. We're gonna need lots of high quality and high density housing to reduce the carbon footprint required to keep modern civilization running. It's cheaper and greener to supply water, air conditioning, electricity and sewage to 100 people in 1 building than 100 people in 100 houses. We should be building every single human being a condo in a high rise for free.

Fifth: manufacturing. Power all factories with renewable energy. If it can't be plugged in, make it battery-powered. If it produces waste, find a way to throw green energy at the waste to render it inert (or recycle it).

We can achieve all of the above today. Solar is cheap and getting cheaper, and you don't need that much of the earth's surface area to supply electricity for the whole of humanity. Once you have basically limitless solar energy, you can get cheap desalinization and cheap water pumping, which unlocks mass irrigation and with it, farming capacity.

Housing sounds like a tough political problem at first, but few people will say no to a policy of "everyone -- rich or poor -- gets a free condo." Even existing homeowners would take a second home in a big city, even if all they do is use it for storage or weekend visits.

Manufacturing can be made greener and greener as more and more energy becomes available. If energy isn't your limiting factor, then you can divert energy towards safe waste disposal -- for example, you could convert carbon dioxide back molecular oxygen and carbon with enough energy. This I think will be key to manufacturing the goods and services that 7+ billion people will want in a sustainable way.

Re: Why North America's killer heat scares me

#138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you truly believe it's this dire, does it matter? It's up to that country to cut emissions even if they accept that job on behalf of other countries. But first, lets start on just not dumping plastic into oceans, building more coal plants, and generally not cutting emissions at all (China) Then we can worry on the manufacturing like cement and steel (I believe we should make our own steel anyway) The more stuff we…

This is an global issue it's up to everyone to lower emissions, exporting all your factories to China has been the solution for all of those countries. We can not blame China for that.

Again, I support moving more manufacturing to the US for sure.

And we can demand our politicians to do that so we can control emissions, as well as try to hold countries accountable through sanctions. (don't buy any slave-made products, don't buy any coal-made products)

We can certainly blame China for building coal factories, dumping plastic in the ocean, and generally just not giving a fuck about human rights or environmental rights.

I don't take anyone serious who advocates green policies without holding the biggest polluters accountable who aren't changing their ways.

The "per capita" and "outsourcing" points are propaganda used to deflect responsibility. Unless you have a stat how much emissions come from that outsourcing you are waiving their responsibility via a talking point.

Also, we're not talking about making emissions zero, we're talking about LOWERING. So even if they didn't cut emissions for the stuff they make for us, cutting domestic emissions should still lower their overall emissions. China isn't getting more factories, factories are moving out, so we should see a decrease.

Re: Why North America's killer heat scares me

#139
post #15

Respectfully, I’m getting fatigued from hearing about climate changes. Not because I don’t care, but because I feel powerless to do anything major about it. For all the recycling I’ve done, a single factory can undo in just a day. Being defeatist isn’t exactly productive, but hearing that calamities are happening on a daily basis doesn’t help much either. I really do think the only way this’ll get better is after som…

You feel powerless to do anything about climate change ? You feel your individual actions such as recycling are meaningless in the face of the incoming tsunami ? That is because they are. If you want meaningful, get into political action ! "For consumers in the industrialized world to signal virtue with their individual actions is irrelevant at best. Countries like Sweden that have had success in decarbonizing, didn’…

Although voting is important, it only makes a difference when there is a candidate or ballot initiative that takes climate seriously.

Building a coalition that cares about climate is needed. Then politicians will see that the issue has a reliable voting block they can depend on for their careers.

Re: Why North America's killer heat scares me

#140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of Koonin’s sources are directly from the IPCC reports, in fact they are what the book is based around.

Yes, but they are often taken out of context in a misleading way. His statements about melting in Greenland being slower than 80 years ago, for example, are highly misleading, presented in a way to lead the reader to believe that melting in Greenland is decelerating when in fact it is accelerating, it just happened to be exceptionally high for a single year, 80 years ago. Other misleading techniques are the straw-man…

First of all, I will point out that he brings up the “context” of facts as a vehicle for an agenda early in the book. The book can essentially be described as a critical reading and overview of the IPCC reports.

And, yes, I do not agree with every point he makes. I think some of the things he says are misleading. That said, he does raise points that climate action advocates, myself included, need to address. For instance, our faulty climate models. This is not climate denial. It’s climate action, from a realistic perspective.

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