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Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

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Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#131

Post by michaelmrose »

Kranar wrote: post #103
munk-a wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We elect people who actually believe in governance instead of people out to make a buck. I know that everyone's going to act in their own interest (that's sorta how interests are defined) but some people feel a legitimate duty and loyalty to country and welfare above their own personal comfort - these people tend to be torpedoed very early on in US politics because they refuse to cozy up to special interests to play…

Meh, a lot of the people you're describing are incredibly incompetent and succumb to simplistic ideologies. Over the long run they end up in the same position that everyone we're complaining about ends up in. While not entirely related, I remember a study by the U.S. military during the Vietnam war that said the worst performing soldiers were the ones who were patriotic and served due to a sense of duty. I'm simplify…

Can you dig up that study please?

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#132

Post by smt88 »

sneak wrote: post #125
wpietri wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whatever the behind-the-scenes truth, I think the appearance of conflicting interests is a problem regardless. For a lot of elected offices and high public service positions, I think their wealth should be put into a blind trust, one constrained by law to buy broad, boring things like index funds. That would surely be a problem for some individuals. But I don't think it's a systemic problem. We only need to find 0.00…

I think this presupposes the lie that the government is by, of, or for the (majority of the) people. This is a closed system, and most are not allowed anywhere near the control room. It, including these trades, is working as intended.

The US is explicitly not about the majority. The Senate and Presidency are both anti-democratic institions where land controls votes.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#133

Post by jlarocco »

stereolambda wrote: post #113
sakopov wrote: post #15

> For example, Pelosi in Dec 22 was against more stimulus. Her husband buys deep ITM TSLA and AAPL calls that day. December 23rd, she is suddenly for stimulus again, with those same companies ralling 5%, giving her an instant +30 return. > Congressman Gottheimer is absolutely an incredible options trader. He’s been selling calls at peaks on $MSFT all 2021, & seemingly buying back the contracts on dips. This in blocks…

Please correct me, but here's a provocative hypothesis I spent three minutes thinking through. Couldn't you say that speculating with insider information on public markets can be a way for public officials to make a lot of money without marrying themselves to any particular interests? In that case, couldn't it be potentially a mechanism we can exploit for good? Disclaimer: not American, no strong opinion on these peo…

I guess I don't see where the "good" is there?

Being a representative isn't supposed to be a "get rich quick" scheme. They already make a lot of money and IMO if they're going to invest in stocks they should play by the same rules as everybody else.

Edit: On second thought, considering how much they can influence stock prices, maybe they should have stricter insider information regulations. It's a huge conflict of interest.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#134

Post by nitrogen »

wpietri wrote: post #100
sakopov wrote: post #15

> For example, Pelosi in Dec 22 was against more stimulus. Her husband buys deep ITM TSLA and AAPL calls that day. December 23rd, she is suddenly for stimulus again, with those same companies ralling 5%, giving her an instant +30 return. > Congressman Gottheimer is absolutely an incredible options trader. He’s been selling calls at peaks on $MSFT all 2021, & seemingly buying back the contracts on dips. This in blocks…

Whatever the behind-the-scenes truth, I think the appearance of conflicting interests is a problem regardless. For a lot of elected offices and high public service positions, I think their wealth should be put into a blind trust, one constrained by law to buy broad, boring things like index funds. That would surely be a problem for some individuals. But I don't think it's a systemic problem. We only need to find 0.00…

We only need to find 0.00013% of the US population

Maybe we should use sortition then instead of elections? What could be more democratic than random average people (meeting some criteria) taking a turn at the wheel?

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#135

Post by thepete2 »

One thing I've always wondered: Does the stock market basically consist of insider traders making a profit off of people without that knowledge? I feel like even with immense restrictions on insiders in place, information is so easy to pass on to sb. else, that it should be impossible to prevent this.

Heck, I could cough once for buy, twice for sell. Who's going to surveil me and notice that?

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#136

Post by sethammons »

wpietri wrote: post #107
sethammons wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

my naive solution: politicians become monks. They go without. They are provided modest housing and budgets. I'm sure there are zounds of issues with it, but I like to imagine servant leaders who go without to do more for the communities they serve.

I'd be happy with that, but perhaps an easier solution is to make them moderately wealthy. Pay them a top 5% salary with a guaranteed pension for life, plus mandatory open finances for life. Then there's much less incentive to resort to graft.

Love it, that’s the other side of the coin I like

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#137

Post by sneak »

skohan wrote: post #95
api wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that high-ranking politicians and bureaucrats can trade stocks at all is criminal. The moral hazard is unbelievable.

Yes it's the definition of conflict of interest. It's insane that this is allowed

I think it's working as intended and that it's insane that people are surprised it's set up this way.

The state and large corporate interests in the USA are very tightly integrated and have been for at least an entire generation.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#138

Post by finexplained »

de6u99er wrote: post #112
finexplained wrote: post #17

Members of congress should only be allowed to invest in SPY/VOO, VTI, and a few other broad ETFs, long only, no options.

What about their friends and families?

In the financial industry we have restrictions not only on our own trading accounts, but on any account that we might have reasonable influence over. In my particular case, this means both my brokerage accounts and any of those belonging to a spouse. This is a requirement by our compliance departments to follow SEC regulations regarding insider trading. I don't see why similar rules would not be applied in this setting.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#139

Post by guiriduro »

mattferderer wrote: post #56
sakopov wrote: post #15

> For example, Pelosi in Dec 22 was against more stimulus. Her husband buys deep ITM TSLA and AAPL calls that day. December 23rd, she is suddenly for stimulus again, with those same companies ralling 5%, giving her an instant +30 return. > Congressman Gottheimer is absolutely an incredible options trader. He’s been selling calls at peaks on $MSFT all 2021, & seemingly buying back the contracts on dips. This in blocks…

I would like more oversight here but I don't know if these are great examples. I do (without evidence) believe a lot of these people use insider information. Pelosi's husband has been very bullish for a long time on Tesla, Apple & tech in general I do believe. Gottheimer did what I think is a Bull Call spread which means in February, after a crazy run up in market prices in January, he bet that MSFT would go up a lit…

In addition to possibly using inside information, they also make the news, ie. potentially profit from policy news that they themselves are making.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#140

Post by reedjosh »

giantg2 wrote: post #68
christiansakai wrote: post #47

Meanwhile ordinary people still believe that the war is against their fellow people, in identity politics, religion, sexual orientation etc. Devide et Impera.

That's because it's the only war they even have a chance at winning because people in power will at least use them as pawns in their shared interests. They realize they lost the other war long ago and are subjects, not citizens in regards to holding the system itself accountable. Or are in blissful ignorance because it hasn't screwed them... yet.

> They realize they lost the other war long ago

No, I vote ignorance. Most people don't even realize the current global political landscape is a battle of systems (E.g. Rules Based and China's Belt and Road Initiative).

The idea that we're pawns doesn't cross most people's minds. Though I'd agree it may be willful ignorance as the truth not only hurts but is scary.

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