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Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

bbc.com

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Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#131

Post by stretchcat »

nostrademons wrote: post #121
stretchcat wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear winter seems unlikely to me, and from what I understand I'm not alone. Cities are no longer prone to huge firestorms like they once were. Furthermore most nuclear strikes would probably be airbursts to maximize blast effects, but that means less material being thrown into the atmosphere. If the attack were calculated to cause maximum fallout instead, airbursts of salted bombs might be used, which would poison…

The primary targets for nukes aren't cities, they're other nukes. Most of these warheads are set for groundburst (or underground burst - I remember a bunch of research in the 80s about burrowing/penetrating warheads), because to blow up a 3-4 foot thick reinforced concrete silo you basically need to land right on top of it. That's the big fallout threat.

The nuclear winter theories I've read all involve the injection of soot into the stratosphere by nuclear-ignited firestorms. Buried nuclear blasts can dig pretty big holes (Sedan crater and all the other craters in the Nevada Test Site, which looks like the surface of the moon) and are certainly a huge fallout threat, but the claim of nuclear strikes against buried silos causing a nuclear winter is a new one to me.

Some napkin math: the Sedan test was optimized to dig a big hole, was buried almost 200 meters deep, and moved about 11 million tons of earth, leaving a crater of 0.005 cubic kilometers. The 1815 eruption of Mount Tambura, which caused a 'year without summer', ejected 160-213 cubic kilometers of material into the stratosphere, something like 32 thousand times as much as the Sedan blast. I'm guessing each strike against a nuclear silo would probably create craters a fraction the size of Sedan.

Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#132

Post by pasquinelli »

breakfastduck wrote: post #89
just_steve_h wrote: post #70

The biggest takeaway here for me is that we collectively achieved something previously considered impossible: by making different behavioral choices, as a species, we achieved the largest cut in CO2 emissions in 75 years. It's tragic that only the threat of a deadly disease could compel such a change, but perhaps we may find other levers to help us achieve such widespread beneficial changes in the future?

All it does it prove how fruitless the prevention of climate change is. A total shutdown of the entire world economy on an unprecedented scale still doesn't track enough to prevent climate change. If that isn't a clear indicator of how severe the situation is then I don't know what else is.

we haven't had a total shutdown of the entire world economy. that would imply no one's making anything or buying anything. as far as what we need, we're still producing more than enough. we could cut more than we have and still have ample. no one would be getting rich though. so there it is, the driver of climate change from the beginning remains the driver of climate change now.

Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#133

Post by rmk »

just_steve_h wrote: post #70

The biggest takeaway here for me is that we collectively achieved something previously considered impossible: by making different behavioral choices, as a species, we achieved the largest cut in CO2 emissions in 75 years. It's tragic that only the threat of a deadly disease could compel such a change, but perhaps we may find other levers to help us achieve such widespread beneficial changes in the future?

We did not simply make "behavioral choices". Whole swathes of humanity were ordered indoors! It was achieved at untold cost (actually, much greater than the trillions of dollars that have been given away already by governments) that will be paid by generations to come. Only people who were lucky to hold a job that wasn't affected made a conscious decision to cut down.

I am willing to bet that come 2022 or so, emissions will rebound and exceed peaks as people 'catch up' on travel, including simply visiting near and dear ones, that they have missed out on.

Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#134

Post by kieselguhr_kid »

ndiscussion wrote: post #112
kristopolous wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really says something. Roads have long served as our public space but we've managed to convert it into the private. I don't mean materially private, I know we're fishbowls on wheels, but culturally private, as in people often refer to it as such. It's one of the only times most people are disconnected from internet/work-tech because there is substantial risk of life and limb if they engaged (I know people have mad…

What if we didn't crowd ourselves into cesspools of humanity ie cities? I'm being a bit facetious, but ultimately, this lack of privacy is all self-inflicted.

Then we'd probably destroy our ecosystem more quickly. People in cities much more efficiently than rural or suburban people.

Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#135

Post by hcurtiss »

rmk wrote: post #133
just_steve_h wrote: post #70

The biggest takeaway here for me is that we collectively achieved something previously considered impossible: by making different behavioral choices, as a species, we achieved the largest cut in CO2 emissions in 75 years. It's tragic that only the threat of a deadly disease could compel such a change, but perhaps we may find other levers to help us achieve such widespread beneficial changes in the future?

We did not simply make "behavioral choices". Whole swathes of humanity were ordered indoors! It was achieved at untold cost (actually, much greater than the trillions of dollars that have been given away already by governments) that will be paid by generations to come. Only people who were lucky to hold a job that wasn't affected made a conscious decision to cut down. I am willing to bet that come 2022 or so, emissio…

And watching so many small businesses in my small town close, that was not at all a thing I hope climate change policy replicates.

Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#136

Post by bamboozled »

rmk wrote: post #133
just_steve_h wrote: post #70

The biggest takeaway here for me is that we collectively achieved something previously considered impossible: by making different behavioral choices, as a species, we achieved the largest cut in CO2 emissions in 75 years. It's tragic that only the threat of a deadly disease could compel such a change, but perhaps we may find other levers to help us achieve such widespread beneficial changes in the future?

We did not simply make "behavioral choices". Whole swathes of humanity were ordered indoors! It was achieved at untold cost (actually, much greater than the trillions of dollars that have been given away already by governments) that will be paid by generations to come. Only people who were lucky to hold a job that wasn't affected made a conscious decision to cut down. I am willing to bet that come 2022 or so, emissio…

> Whole swathes of humanity were ordered indoors! It was achieved at untold cost

Climate change has untold cost too, so what you’re saying doesn’t have much weight.

Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#138

Post by ishjoh »

jedberg wrote: post #127
retzkek wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not set aside some time each day to listen? Take a bath, lounge on the couch/hammock, and enjoy that time not commuting.

I have two young kids. There is no such thing as "lounging". :)

I've been WFH for about 5 years now and also have two young ones so I know the feeling :)

I've found that any chore time is now also podcast time. So things like cleaning, laundry, or mowing the lawn I've always got one headphone in (the other ear is for listening for the kids)

Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#139

Post by smileysteve »

supernova87a wrote: post #93

But this is like taking off your boots and congratulating yourself for losing 5 pounds.

The more apt analogy would be it's like catching a cold and losing 5lbs on a soup only diet.

You actually lost weight, but not in a healthy way, and as soon as you feel better you're going to gain it, plus some.

Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#140

Post by rmk »

hcurtiss wrote: post #135
rmk wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We did not simply make "behavioral choices". Whole swathes of humanity were ordered indoors! It was achieved at untold cost (actually, much greater than the trillions of dollars that have been given away already by governments) that will be paid by generations to come. Only people who were lucky to hold a job that wasn't affected made a conscious decision to cut down. I am willing to bet that come 2022 or so, emissio…

And watching so many small businesses in my small town close, that was not at all a thing I hope climate change policy replicates.

One can wish, but I know that there is huge pressure on the current administration to appease the left wing of the party. Keystone XL is canceled, and the US has rejoined the Paris agreement on the first day of Biden's Presidency. A multi-trillion dollar Green New Deal that will further saddle future generations with debt is looking likely at this point. Whether it will provide the benefits it purports to do is far from certain.
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