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Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

theguardian.com

131–140 of 667 posts

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#131
post #14
post #2

I don't understand how this can happen. An equilibrium seems more likely to me. If massive amounts of people move to electric vehicles gas prices will fall. This will make combustion vehicles more attractive. Also, government depends on all the taxes they put on combustion vehicles. As those revenues decline they may choose to get that money from electric vehicle drivers under the guise of 'congestion' taxes or such.

Gas taxes set a floor for how low prices can go. They'll probably increase as gas motor cars are phased out before the process ever sink too low. In Washington, US, they increased the registration fee for electrics to make up for the shortfall in gas taxes that pay for road wear, congestion, etc. So that's already happening.

>They'll probably increase as gas motor cars are phased out before the process ever sink too low.

Why?

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#132
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the road for long trips, yes absolutely. But the EV usecase also includes low and medium speed charging at home overnight, and while at your destination (say a retailer) which you can't do with your ICE car. So overlapping but not identical comparison.

You're making many assumptions here. 1st, you're assuming people can charge at home - assuming they have a garage and access to power. This isn't true for a huge portion of the population. > and while at your destination (say a retailer) which you can't do with your ICE car. So overlapping but not identical comparison. This really isn't available yet either. Who's going to pay for this? Really?

> This really isn't available yet either. Who's going to pay for this? Really?

In Europe some retailers have this, sure, for 2 or 3 parking spots.

If the demand is there, I'm pretty sure they'll expand it, even as a paid/loyality bonus. I don't expect them to offer superchaging but 50-60 km/h charge would be more than enough.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#133
post #2

I don't understand how this can happen. An equilibrium seems more likely to me. If massive amounts of people move to electric vehicles gas prices will fall. This will make combustion vehicles more attractive. Also, government depends on all the taxes they put on combustion vehicles. As those revenues decline they may choose to get that money from electric vehicle drivers under the guise of 'congestion' taxes or such.

Exactly what is happening in Norway

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#134
post #100
post #2

I don't understand how this can happen. An equilibrium seems more likely to me. If massive amounts of people move to electric vehicles gas prices will fall. This will make combustion vehicles more attractive. Also, government depends on all the taxes they put on combustion vehicles. As those revenues decline they may choose to get that money from electric vehicle drivers under the guise of 'congestion' taxes or such.

Remember that time photo film got cheaper as more and more people switched to digital cameras? Combustion engine powered cars will be relegated to hipsters, museums, hardcore enthusiasts and specialist/niche applications.

I'm not aware of a strong functional benefit of electric versus combustion. But digital cameras had strong benefits over digital, so I don't think it's a good analogy.

In general, I don't think analogies are for making arguments, because people focus on the difference between the analogy and what it's being applied to, like I just did. In education, to teach a new principle, I think they are great.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#135
post #7

I rarely drive, but can't wait to own one. Where I live (and for a lot of people who live in cities) there is only on-street parking. Will be interesting to see how increased electric vehicle ownership might happen for people without a garage or designated parking.

This. Curios to hear about people's experiences owning an EV without access to a charger at home.

Obviously everyone's use case is different.

The way I would frame it is this: 1. Your car has x range. Let's say 200 mi. or 321 km. And takes 1 hr. to charge. (Just for reference, my current car gets refilled with gas every 400 km. and takes 10ish minutes to do the task).

2. How long does it take you to travel that range in everyday life. For me, it would take about 2 weeks. But lets assume that its winter or I'm driving a lot and my time is cut in half, so I need a full charge every week.

3. Now I ask myself if there is anywhere in my driving schedule where I consistently spend about an hour in a place where there are chargers. The answer is, of course, I might go to Costco, the grocery store, home depot and the library In the course of a week. Of course partial charging is also an option, so two 30 min stays at any of the above also solves the issue.

So I'm covered for my average use case if charging at home isn't an option.

It is a smart question to ask, but it is actually pretty easy to answer if you think it through. Obviously there are a million and one use cases for a personal vehicle, but me and all my friends would be fine.

Even thinking back over the past year, including lots of outdoor activities into the backcountry in Canada, I have a hard time thinking of more than one trip that would have been different with an electric car (towing on backroads in the mountains. A corner case if ever there was one).

My theory is that charging infrastructure will all of a sudden become as necessary a commodity as parking. A restaurant that has a few chargers in the parking lot will attract more business, and I wouldn't be surprised if it also became a revenue stream as well.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're making many assumptions here. 1st, you're assuming people can charge at home - assuming they have a garage and access to power. This isn't true for a huge portion of the population. > and while at your destination (say a retailer) which you can't do with your ICE car. So overlapping but not identical comparison. This really isn't available yet either. Who's going to pay for this? Really?

> This really isn't available yet either. Who's going to pay for this? Really? In Europe some retailers have this, sure, for 2 or 3 parking spots. If the demand is there, I'm pretty sure they'll expand it, even as a paid/loyality bonus. I don't expect them to offer superchaging but 50-60 km/h charge would be more than enough.

2 or 3 parking spots. It's a token gesture, not meaningful infrastructure. Electrifying an entire parking lot is a lot more expensive than 2 or 3 spots.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#137
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The 2030 date will be a self-fulfilling prophecy. So long as "everybody" truly believes the Governments threat to effectively ban ICE sales after 2030, then clear economic opportunities to service the future demand for electric cars and charging infrastructure become apparent. This sidesteps the issues with network effects. You don't have to worry about building a charging network before electric cars become widespre…

>So long as "everybody" truly believes the Governments threat to effectively ban ICE sales after 2030 Will anyone believe that though? Given the propensity of virtually all governments worldwide to do less than promised and the overwhelming amount of infrastructure still needed, I don't take this date seriously at all.

The EU legislation regarding CO2 emissions has teeth, and no respite has been given. This is the reason so many PHEVs are being introduced lately, they are about the only way to comply except pure BEVs. Sure, UK is not EU anymore but the legislation is felt worldwide.

Before 2020: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/cars_...

From 2020 onwards: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regul...

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're making many assumptions here. 1st, you're assuming people can charge at home - assuming they have a garage and access to power. This isn't true for a huge portion of the population. > and while at your destination (say a retailer) which you can't do with your ICE car. So overlapping but not identical comparison. This really isn't available yet either. Who's going to pay for this? Really?

> 1st, you're assuming people can charge at home - assuming they have a garage and access to power. This isn't true for a huge portion of the population. So what, figuring out how people without a designated parking space can change their car is trivial compared to trying to undo global warming. Also Covid has shown us how much disruption we can actually tolerate, hint: a lot more than the powers that be want you to…

This is a textbook strawman.

> So what, figuring out how people without a designated parking space can change their car is trivial compared to trying to undo global warming.

No it isn't. NYC has limited space. There simply isn't enough room for a charger for every car. That is a nontrivial problem with extreme cost. You can't just handwave it away.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The real issue is charge times. Gas fillups take a few minutes at most - meaning no long lines. Once charges are close to that speed I think EVs will really take off.

Tangentially gas cars are convenient because you just don't have to think about the length of your next trip: there will be gas available wherever you go. Long trips with an EV require planning due to missing infrastructure, longer "fueling" times, and shorter ranges. But if we break out off the assumption that you can go anywhere any time in your electric car because there's another option available (rental? ride sh…

If we break off the assumption of what most consumers want, sure. But then what would be the point?

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#140
I wonder if electrical grids are really prepared for mass adoption of EV. For example, UK is already quite reliant on the HVDC link [0] from France. In 2016 it got damaged resulting in a reduced capacity, which has caused serious concerns at the time. And it's not only about power generation, it's also quite probable that a lot of existing power lines would have to be updated to satisfy a higher demand for electrical power.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HVDC_Cross-Channel

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