Exactly, you can't really predict what can't be predicted
Software effort estimation is mostly fake research
131–140 of 318 posts
Re: Software effort estimation is mostly fake research
#132Earlier quoted context omitted.
'I really wish we would treat sales people the same way. "How much money is this contract for? What date will it be signed?"'. In well-run sales teams, that is exactly what happens. There is a constant move towards more accuracy and tightness in forecasting. In poorly run sales teams, the reps basically set their owns quotas (padded, of course, to mitigate against massive uncertainty) and then are very imprecise at m…
I think you're talking about goals, which isn't the same as estimates. A well run sales team, like a well run dev team do benefit from goals. Like increase X by Y. That's because it can guide your decision process of what you'll spend your time on and what you won't. It can also push for focused innovation around a particular area. But I think OP meant what if you asked the sales team: How much time will it take you…
Sales team certainly understand the sales cycle and different velocities involved.
Eg - two jobs we ago sold to finance playera from small hedge funds to huge asset managers to central banks and finance ministries. You could sell more small hedge funds by knocking on more doors but you understood that the big players took months and years to decide. And of course we always tried to hone the sales org and process to arm the sales people with tools and data to move faster. We certainly held them much more accountable than devs.
It's actually not a fair comparison - software development is often like golf - the only limit to your velocity is you while sales can't really move faster than customer's process in many cases.
(Yes I obviously know dev processes can have external dependencies too)
Re: Software effort estimation is mostly fake research
#133I seriously don't understand the obsession with estimates in the paradigm it is pushed in. Want to be steady at a reliable pace, work for a few months and figure out the average and deviations. Need a priority on tasks, use a priority queue using whatever method you assign it by, often a combination of deadline, value added, complexity and more.
Yes, I get on a high level, one needs to be able to say "yes we can make this before [date]", when using big deadlines. How often do people really have to finish something before a critical deadline or decide to drop it right then and there? I'd wager most software devs do not, let alone biweekly deadlines. Isn't agile methodology supposed to help us fight against artificially tight deadlines (customer collaboration)? Isn't the SaaS model combined with "deploy any time" designed to be profitable in accordance to features implemented? Then, why push estimates so strongly in whatever flavor of the month Scrum version BigCorp wishes to use today? What do they even add at that point? If they are really so important, why do we always feel the need to introduce human error when we can extrapolate former experiences with computer models?
Maybe it is just me being cynical. The entire need to hold so fiercely onto an estimate reeks of micromanagement and desire to push responsibility entire onto the lower ranks.
Re: Software effort estimation is mostly fake research
#134The issue with estimates are expectations. While nobody acknowledges it, you're not actually asked for an estimate, you're being asked for a quote. The difference is when you're asked for a quote, you're asked how much you will be charging, with the expectations that you'll be willing to eat into your own margins to give a lower quote. That's why it's a negotiation, where you negotiate how much extra effort, time and…
Software doesn‘t exist in a vacuum. The marketing team needs to know when the landing page / qr code (whatever) is implemented, because they need to plan their marketing budget. The customer care agent that gets shouted at because feature xyz is broken / not working as the customer expects, would like to give the customer an answer when it will be fixed. The customer care manager is also worried about her team members‘ retention.
So having a rough or concrete time line / roadmap is helpful for these parts of the business.
I also believe that a feature request is incomplete without an estimate. It is like a friend asking you to go buy him a car. What does he need a 3000$ subaru from 2003 or a 2021 Ferrari? Of course the friend can give you an insanely accurate list of specifications, but giving you a budget + some guidelines will probably be more effective for your friend and more fun for you. Especially considering that you know much more about cars (read software) than your friend. Knowing the budget you will be able to make much better choices.
If you take the allegory of a quote (which I think is correct) then you need to consider that the haggling process always also includes scope of the product. „I‘ll give you 5000$ for the car, but only if you include a free car wash“. And you can always use an estimate as defense against feature creep. „We are running low on budget, I suggest descoping xyz into the next iteration. Otherwise we won‘t be able to ship on time“. If on time is not defined then you can never have this conversation.
Re: Software effort estimation is mostly fake research
#135If someone can conclusively teach inexperienced programmers good approach to estimates (methodology) + help embed this into sales process of a software house-type company, I know some folks who'd love to have this :) My own experience has been this: people make estimates, client has expectations based on some variant of those, and something later happens but so much change is introduced during the actual software dev…
More important than estimating is knowing how to sequence the work. I often see teams try to build the entire DB schema first, or built the interface out one wire at a time. The agile approach of building small, vertical parts of each feature tends to work much better in my experience.
For example say you have a CRUD application with a page for editing and searching complex objects. Rather than building the entire search page with all of its filters, and then building the edit page with all of its fields, you build a simplified version of the search page with only a few filters and a simplified version of the edit page with fields that correspond to those filters. You also make sure the functionality integrates with the backend to form a cohesive, vertical feature that can go through QA, and possibly the client. Once that is working you expand the list of fields and filters.
This approach tends to surface design issues much faster, and is more adaptable to change requests from the client.
Re: Software effort estimation is mostly fake research
#136The issue with estimates are expectations. While nobody acknowledges it, you're not actually asked for an estimate, you're being asked for a quote. The difference is when you're asked for a quote, you're asked how much you will be charging, with the expectations that you'll be willing to eat into your own margins to give a lower quote. That's why it's a negotiation, where you negotiate how much extra effort, time and…
I once had a manager that thought he could negotiate estimates. That is like negotiating with the weatherman about the weather. Sure, maybe in the end you can convince them it will be finished sooner. But the fact is that it really doesn't change reality.
Re: Software effort estimation is mostly fake research
#137Software development which is a repeatable and already defined process is totally possible to predict and estimate. Most tasks of repeatable processes follow normal distribution and is predictable. Deviations from expected mean will be due to predictable factors of the environment such as failed disk or sleepy programmer. You can apply arbitrary six sigma methodology to measure such process with accuracy.
The problem in software though is that such a repeatable process would be immediately automated away by writing a function, library, framework or any such tools that programmers use on a daily basis without much thinking. Unlike in building construction, to which programming discipline is often wrongly likened to, where construction companies simply cannot "write a function" to deploy cookie cutter houses or bridges one after another.
Therefore software engineering is never a repeatable process, unless crappy tools are used, which don't allow for sufficient abstraction of repeatable parts.
Tasks in software disciplines therefore don't follow a normal distribution. They follow exponential distribution most often. Most issues go unnoticed. Majority are just so tiny and ofthen considered business as usual. Every time you get stuck and have to look up a solution in docs or stackoverflow technically is an issue, but never gets reported in an issue tracker for its triviality. There are however issues which are orders of magnitude larger than what management expects when they occassionally sampling issue trackers. Some issues lead to critical design flaws which could need a full blown rewrite for example, or ever lasting and expensive hackery in case the executive decision is to work around the critical design flaw. These issues can take years to accomplish or take massive amount of pain endurance.
Trying to estimate a process with such exponential distribution and making sense of averages or other statistics of such distribution is borderline insanity.
Why not just go to physics department and ask when the next Theory of Relativity will be invented and how much budget and story points those guys need.
Re: Software effort estimation is mostly fake research
#138The issue with estimates are expectations. While nobody acknowledges it, you're not actually asked for an estimate, you're being asked for a quote. The difference is when you're asked for a quote, you're asked how much you will be charging, with the expectations that you'll be willing to eat into your own margins to give a lower quote. That's why it's a negotiation, where you negotiate how much extra effort, time and…
Software doesn‘t exist in a vacuum. The marketing team needs to know when the landing page / qr code (whatever) is implemented, because they need to plan their marketing budget. The customer care agent that gets shouted at because feature xyz is broken / not working as the customer expects, would like to give the customer an answer when it will be fixed. The customer care manager is also worried about her team member…
And to continue your metaphor, most software estimation comes from someone describing a car they like, and based on your mock ups you and others decide on a price, how long is acceptable to build, etc.
So then you goto build the car and everything's going great till you find out that the latest research shows the specific design of engine you're using doesn't work with the eco friendly fuel that is now being mandated by the government. And suddenly killing cows is uncool so you have to change all your chairs to fabric or source fake leather, but half of your company thinks that endorsing fake leather is hide-appropriation and you're now spending a third of your time in HR going through training.
And eventually you get about a week out from delivering the car and the customer calls your PM and says they want the car to have a top speed 30mph over the original specs while maintaining the fuel efficiency rating. And the doors should swing up, instead of out. Like billionaires'.
Re: Software effort estimation is mostly fake research
#139Earlier quoted context omitted.
> ...nobody cares! > Nobody learns. > It's insane. Estimation is really hard, especially if you're dealing with new challenges, new people, and new expectations. Throwing moving targets (unplanned changes) into the mix, as you noticed, makes estimation even more difficult. The thing is, it very rarely is the case that a wrong estimate will sink a project. Things get delivered late all the time. No one dies. Most stak…
Failure is a tricky thing. There is a story that Microsoft Word was a staggering failure in terms of actual time and cost to implement versus its estimates. It then went on to be among the most lucrative ($ billions) pieces of software ever created. Was Microsoft Word a failure?
Internal estimates are a political tool, not a technical, financial or scientific one: First, decide if you want to do it or not. Then do the estimate, high if you don't want to do it, low if you do want to do it.
Any kind of reality doesn't factor into it.
In the Word example, somebody really thought this project was worthwhile for some reason, so they gave a very low estimate to get things started. As soon as money has been spent on a project, it isn't likely to be cancelled as easily, so you are safe to continue even if you exceed your original estimate. In the worst case, you need a few excuses.
External estimates, i.e. estimates you use for writing up a contract with an external customer, are different. Those actually do matter, depending on the wording of the contract. But a smart contractor will try to get the contract into a shape such that the above for the internal estimate does apply.
Re: Software effort estimation is mostly fake research
#140Earlier quoted context omitted.
The issue is that you are being asked to estimate something that has never been done before. Even houses always go over time and money and that is fairly straight forward. These days, I only give estimates in terms of units but without numbers. Hours, days, weeks, months, quarters or years. Some relatively small number of those units. If you want a quote it will take an extra 1/4 of the estimate worth of time for an…
> Even houses always go over time and money and that is fairly straight forward. This is an incredibly important point. I was "raised" in commercial software at a time when there was a lot of condescension internally towards ourselves as an industry because we couldn't do estimation and planning, and building was the favorite comparison. A $100 million building couldn't run late or over budget. That would be unimagin…
It doesn’t even have to be a big construction project to hit budget and schedule issues. Rebuilding our house had us going right back to the drawing board having to get new plans drafted and approved. It worked out much better in the end but the unforeseen cost and time overrun was quite anxiety inducing at the time.
But yeah the idea anyone has magically solved accurately predicting the future is completely bonkers.