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Covid: New lockdown for England as cases surge

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Covid: New lockdown for England as cases surge

#131

Post by nickpp »

rusk wrote: post #31
sonotmyname wrote: post #2

Woohoo - more inconsistent and unscientific policies! * Restaurants can continue to offer delivery for food, but takeaway alcohol will be banned __ So alcohol spreads COVID? Good thing restaurants don't count on alcohol sales to stay afloat. * Amateur team sports are not allowed, but elite sport such as Premier League football can continue __ 'Elite' athletes, as is the case for the rest of the 'elites', should not h…

Alcohol spreads COVID. Not exactly ... but it breaks down social barriers and can cause people to be careless. If we had banned or at least curtailed alcoholic sales I can guarantee you probably the numbers would be half what they are now. A big problem is that once you close pubs clubs and other outlets then people start having secret house parties and these are very hard to police. I guarantee you, that even the be…

> if we could have just knuckled down at the start and endured some discomfort we would be pretty much over it by now

Didn’t we do just that in the spring?

Re: Covid: New lockdown for England as cases surge

#132

Post by flagrant »

jeofken wrote: post #126
flagrant wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In [0] it states that 2020 is an average year in deaths It does not. > In [1] it shows averages for the previous years in numbers summing while years up. This still has no relation to deaths in the year 2020. You cannot tell anything about deaths caused by coronavirus from data that only goes up to 2019. > "The growing spread of Coronavirus in the community is not year showed any change in the number of deaths in S…

Is the part we are disagreeing about what “not _yet_ showing any change” means? I doubt hospitals have ten thousand deaths which they procrastinated reporting. More likely the author meant that November and December is not yet counted, and therefore must add the “yet” to the sentence. As you say, [0] states that a slightly larger than average number of deaths occurred during Q2, and a smaller number during Q3. It may…

> Is the part we are disagreeing about what “not _yet_ showing any change” means?

No, it's the meaning of the entire statement. Your translation means "coronavirus did not result in an increase in deaths in 2020", whereas my translation means "the spread of coronavirus may be wider than the number of excess deaths in 2020 indicates". The meaning is wholly different, it is saying something orthogonal to the point you want to make. It says nothing about whether the number of excess deaths is higher or lower than usual, just that you cannot take the number of excess deaths and determine the spread of coronavirus from it.

> Please keep in mind though that the claim you’re responding to was that 2020 the year didn’t see a significant increase in deaths - it was a very average year to die as a Swede.

I am keeping this in mind because I'm trying to point out to you that you have no data for excess deaths in 2020 so you cannot make this claim.

Re: Covid: New lockdown for England as cases surge

#133

Post by CodeGlitch »

pageandrew wrote: post #116
CodeGlitch wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My family's experience is the exact opposite of what you describe. I've never been healthier because most of last year I had time to go for daily exercise instead of sitting in a car commuting. I took my young daughter out with me a lot of the time. My wife also took advantage of the daily outings. Our mental health is probably better than it has ever been because we get to spend more time with each other rather than…

My experience is the exact opposite of what you describe. I've experienced depression and anxiety for the first time in my life, due to most fun things in my life disappearing overnight (due to mainly involving socialization). The future is bleak. I've gotten pretty decent at guitar though. That doesn't replace seeing friends though unfortunately.

I'm very sorry to hear that - I'm not sure I can offer much in the way of improving your outlook. I'm just focusing on the vaccine and the hope that provides.

To change the subject slightly: Would you describe yourself as an extrovert or introvert?

As an introvert I suppose I thrive on my own / with few people around me. I wonder if extroverts suffer more mental anquish when forced into isolation?

Re: Covid: New lockdown for England as cases surge

#134

Post by qeternity »

Daishiman wrote: post #118
qeternity wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Excess deaths globally for 2020 will end up being about 2.5% Is that vast?

It's 13% higher in England, which yes, I would characterize as vast.

I'm not sure you understand how excess mortality works. Excess mortality right now during the winter period is higher...it always is. And 13% is not panic numbers.

Would you be surprised to learn that the 17/18 flu season resulted in more excess deaths than we are having right now? Surely you must have been freaking out then as well advocating for national lockdowns...right?

Re: Covid: New lockdown for England as cases surge

#135

Post by 0xffff2 »

djsumdog wrote: post #98
f6v wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, lockdown parties are a basic human right.

Gathering is a basic human right: Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances. There is no reason stated. There is no exception for "virus." Human rights laws were not written for fair weather…

Quoting the US constitution in a thread about the UK doesn't make much sense. Is there a similar legal doctrine in the UK?

Re: Covid: New lockdown for England as cases surge

#136

Post by qeternity »

rusk wrote: post #70
qeternity wrote: post #11

In the UK, 95% of the deaths are people over 60. There are more deaths for people over 90 than under 70. When are we going to start putting all these efforts and resources into focusing on the vulnerable populations and not painting with a broad brush. We know that lockdowns are too blunt an instrument which is why most of Europe is having to engage in ever more draconian measures. We are mortgaging our future here,…

If you get a bad dose and you can’t get a respirator you’re in big trouble. Guess what happens when there are so many sick that respirators run out. What happens when hospitals are overrun with patients with ‘mild’ symptoms? We’ve been talking about this for nine months and you’re still at the marginal deaths stage of reasoning. Do you need a picture drawn for you or something?

Brilliant logic there. And if I cross the street, I might get hit by a bus. Let's ban cars.

You seem to be struggling that this is a hugely complex situation that might call for slightly more sophisticated logic than you're apparently capable of.

> What happens when hospitals are overrun with patients with ‘mild’ symptoms?

Um wow tough one. Maybe prioritize severe cases like we have been doing for the past 9 months which has worked so well that the Nightingale covid hospitals have never been used...

> We’ve been talking about this for nine months and you’re still at the marginal deaths stage of reasoning.

I'm sorry, what are you suggesting? Ultimately marginal deaths is what this is all about. That's ultimately why hospital capacity matters.

Are you sure you've joined the right game here?

Re: Covid: New lockdown for England as cases surge

#137

Post by 0xffff2 »

pageandrew wrote: post #48
blisterpeanuts wrote: post #27

Hopefully the two vaccines currently being rolled out in the U.S. and Europe will largely eliminate the need for future lockdowns. Once the most vulnerable populations are immune, it's just a matter of weeks or months before herd immunity among the general population is achieved and life can pretty much go back to normal.

Your optimism is appreciated but the situation seems so bleak I cannot believe it could be that easy

Why not? Provided the vaccines work (hard to doubt at this point) and we can manufacture enough of them, what's going to stop us?

Re: Covid: New lockdown for England as cases surge

#138

Post by JohnCohorn »

djsumdog wrote: post #63
rusk wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Alcohol spreads COVID. Not exactly ... but it breaks down social barriers and can cause people to be careless. If we had banned or at least curtailed alcoholic sales I can guarantee you probably the numbers would be half what they are now. A big problem is that once you close pubs clubs and other outlets then people start having secret house parties and these are very hard to police. I guarantee you, that even the be…

This is complete and total arbitrary nonsense. You're taking a conclusion and trying to walk back a path of logic to some type of justification. Let's see this for what it is: arbitrary decisions that curtails the human rights of all human beings by politicians who are figuratively drunk with power. They are banning things for the common people while they leave their regions, have expensive $1k dinners for their poli…

Hypocrisy of elected officials following measures doesn’t imply that the measures they’re imposing aren’t needed.

I agree there have been elements of mass hysteria in this thing, but at the moment we have real and present reasons for hysteria to be appropriate. The number of cases we have at once is overwhelming hospital capacity in many regions and all signs point to it getting much worse over the next month.

Re: Covid: New lockdown for England as cases surge

#139

Post by 0xffff2 »

djsumdog wrote: post #104
blisterpeanuts wrote: post #27

Hopefully the two vaccines currently being rolled out in the U.S. and Europe will largely eliminate the need for future lockdowns. Once the most vulnerable populations are immune, it's just a matter of weeks or months before herd immunity among the general population is achieved and life can pretty much go back to normal.

Even with a vaccine this virus will not go away for at least 10 years. It took 185 years to eradicate SmallPox (mostly from the WHO push of 20 years in the 60s/70s). Vaccine manufactures are claiming 95% efficacy, but that's honestly not a comforting number. It leaves lots of room and since Challenge trials are unethical (they shouldn't be, but they are) we don't know how accurate that number really is. We still have…

The virus existing is not the same as it being an ongoing global pandemic requiring widespread public health action.

Re: Covid: New lockdown for England as cases surge

#140

Post by iso1210 »

sonotmyname wrote: post #2

Woohoo - more inconsistent and unscientific policies! * Restaurants can continue to offer delivery for food, but takeaway alcohol will be banned __ So alcohol spreads COVID? Good thing restaurants don't count on alcohol sales to stay afloat. * Amateur team sports are not allowed, but elite sport such as Premier League football can continue __ 'Elite' athletes, as is the case for the rest of the 'elites', should not h…

A lot of it is virtue signalling, and that's not a bad thing if you want people to actually think "we're all in this together"

Young people can't play football, so rich old white men play golf or go grouse shooting

Premier league footballers don't care much if they're playing or not, but the average person wants to watch it on TV.

Food delivery is fine, but they don't want people buying alcohol and meeting on the street to drink with friends

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