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Games people play with cash flow

commoncog.com

131–140 of 150 posts

Re: Games people play with cash flow

#131
> But those who actually run businesses know that running a business is all about managing cash flows.

This is the golden line. The richest person on Earth (Jeff Bezos) followed this principle religiously since Amazon's inception (or should I say, Cadabra's inception?).

Re: Games people play with cash flow

#132
Great article. One thing that it made me think about - instant payment clearing will have an enormous impact on cash flow, and thus on the wider economy, if the US can ever get it together and finally deprecate ACH.

Re: Games people play with cash flow

#133

I am unconvinced that "first-principles thinking" is the problem here. Surely one can refute the original argument without having to debunk axiomatic logic itself. For example, one could argue something like this: Even though increased access to other people's money can cause founders to make irresponsible decisions, raising money has other advantages that tend to offset this.

I think the idea is, when you argue from first principles, you are implicitly assuming that you know all of the relevant first principles. Since you're human and imperfect, there is always a chance that you don't. How to know? Well, empirically, check whether the conclusions you get, seem to hold up to reality. The author's experience was that taking investment $$ was necessary (or at least often useful) in a startup…

The logic isn't sound though, that's the issue. Let me try to simplify it even more and annotate

    1. Not raising money give you more skin in the game (valid observation)
    2. Skin in the game is an advantage (valid observation)
    3. There exists at least one advantage of not raising money (valid conclusion)
    4. You should not raise money (NOT VALID conclusion)
You can't go from a single argument in favor of something to that thing being favorable overall.

Re: Games people play with cash flow

#134
I used to be afraid of debt, but understood this principle ever since an accounting friend told me about a luxury cruise liner he worked for. It was started buy an immigrant, and quite successful (pre Covid). I was confused how anyone could launch a cruise company when the cost to buy (or even lease a cruise liner) must be 100s of millions. When I asked my friend about their debt, he said “don’t worry, they’re doing just fine”. It was at that point I realised it’s not the debt that matters, but the rate (time wise) at which you can repay it, i.e., debt itself is fine so long as you have sufficient cash flow, and debt can be cheap.

Unfortunately I’m just a software engineer, who has never been able to put this in practice.

Re: Games people play with cash flow

#135
post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People always compare government finance with business finance or household finances. It's an analogy everyone seems to just love. Problem is government finances work completely differently in ways that are so fundamental as to make the analogies completely useless. It would take more than an HN comment to enumerate every subtlety of why that's the case, but if you were to start you could probably begin with the fact…

> ...that a government can print money and extract any resource it wants from any entity it wants to at any time at the barrel of a gun, and you and your CEO friend can't. This is just factually false. The French government can't extract any resource it wants from California. The US government cannot extract any resource it wants from China. The ultimate limit of what a government can extract value from is the land i…

Yes that’s correct, governments and sovereign states cover specific regions. I’m fairly confident all that information was contained already in the word government.

Re: Games people play with cash flow

#136

The author creates a false dichotomy when they write that business is either about making profit or managing cash flow. Making a profit requires cash flow management, but managing cash flow does not require making a profit. This article does talk about managing cash flows in a way that involves never making a profit. First, and tangentially, it's interesting that real estate developers do this all the time. Second, i…

Yes, I've thought about this too. But almost all successful businesses eventually go under[1]. Whoever was holding the potato last gets an egg on their face. That doesn't mean that the business was a "failure" though. It succeeded wildly during its heyday, making livelihoods and sometimes fortunes for many people, employees and shareholders alike.

I'd love to read something more about this line of thinking from someone more knowledgeable in the area.

[1] I think, but maybe not! It would be interesting to trace the "capital lineage" (made-up term) of various successful businesses from the late 1800s through today, for example.

Re: Games people play with cash flow

#138

The author creates a false dichotomy when they write that business is either about making profit or managing cash flow. Making a profit requires cash flow management, but managing cash flow does not require making a profit. This article does talk about managing cash flows in a way that involves never making a profit. First, and tangentially, it's interesting that real estate developers do this all the time. Second, i…

> Making a profit requires cash flow management, but managing cash flow does not require making a profit. This article does talk about managing cash flows in a way that involves never making a profit. Isn't the exact opposite true? I work with businesses which import goods and sell them. The vast majority of these make a steady profit without any thought to cash flow management. Accounts receivable are a mess, paymen…

The opposite isn't quite true either. Cash flow management can allow, e.g., a growing business to continue to operate even without additional sources of cash. So long as the business can turn a profit before growth has stalled for too long there will be no issues.

Re: Games people play with cash flow

#139
post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People always compare government finance with business finance or household finances. It's an analogy everyone seems to just love. Problem is government finances work completely differently in ways that are so fundamental as to make the analogies completely useless. It would take more than an HN comment to enumerate every subtlety of why that's the case, but if you were to start you could probably begin with the fact…

> ...that a government can print money and extract any resource it wants from any entity it wants to at any time at the barrel of a gun, and you and your CEO friend can't. This is just factually false. The French government can't extract any resource it wants from California. The US government cannot extract any resource it wants from China. The ultimate limit of what a government can extract value from is the land i…

Literal millennia of warfare says otherwise. Traditionally it's one of the key roles of the state!
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