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San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

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Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#131

Post by base698 »

PascLeRasc wrote: post #90
burlesona wrote: post #51

I would say the city being “closed” is the major driver. Among my group of ~40 coworkers, about 30 (including me) have left the city. As far as I know all but one were renting. Everyone who left gave the following rationale: - we can work remotely so move wherever or nomad now - SF is not very fun during the pandemic - WFH in my tiny apartment is much less enjoyable than when I was working in the office and didn’t sp…

Compared to other big tech-hub cities, I'd think SF would be one of the better ones to spend the pandemic in. There's great parks like Dolores, Lands End, etc, and they'll still be comfortable to be in during this winter. Is there more to it than that?

Don't know about SF but the so cal parks were closed, even the beaches in some cases. Heavy fines if you are found in the park.

My favorite restaurants are all closed and you have police state ensuring you don't use public facilities. Why would I pay $4000 a month for housing with none of the benefits?

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#132

Post by ad-hominem »

ianferrel wrote: post #119
mxcrossb wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the mindset I really don’t understand though. Sure your company can say “we’re all remote” today, but they can just as easily say “everyone has to come back” in six months. Or “everyone doesn’t have to, but those who don’t are the first laid off next time”. I’ve been fully remote since March, so I’ve been weighing this for awhile”

Realistically, the vast majority of companies aren't going to issue an edict like that. They're going to find a way to work with their employees. If you have employees who have been working productively remotely for a year, it's probably better to find a way to keep them happy and working than to have to find a new employee.

Except yahoo famously did exactly this, despite it being obviously stupid even at the time, without the benefit of hindsight.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#133

Post by jeffbee »

jariel wrote: post #99
jeffbee wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rent is like a traffic jam. The market collapses on the margin. You don't need to remove 30% of the cars to reduce freeway congestion by 30%, and you don't need to remove 30% of the residents to lower asking rents by 30%, either.

1) 'Marginal buyers' could explain it - but it might be something else. There is a smaller group of buyers, investors, of the inelastic type - who if they run away, will cause a market to plummet. They are the opposite of price sensitive, they're maybe from overseas snapping up property at 'above asking' because they need to get $1M out of their countries and they're looking for any kind of return that's reasonable.…

The "yellow peril" theory that Bay Area housing bubbles are caused by foreign money laundering is popular on Nextdoor but I think on HN you're going to need some evidence. Prior to this pandemic 97% of dwellings in San Francisco were physically occupied by actual living people. Nobody is parking money in empty SF condos.

It's true that investors are attracted to Bay Area real estate, because the government has dedicated itself to making real property have outrageous risk-free returns, but putting "foreign" in front of "investors" is just baseless. Go look at the press release from when Dinerstein bought several large apartment buildings in Berkeley a year ago. Why did they do it? Quoting the buyer, they wanted to be "in a market that has historically had a very high barrier to entry.” In other words, in a market where the government is too stupid to build houses. This has nothing to do with money laundering.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#134

Post by kaikai »

mxcrossb wrote: post #115
zdragnar wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a counter anecdote, I know three people from the bay area who moved out during covidtide, but had already planned the move beforehand. (This is a very high percentage of people I know from the bay area, hence the anecdote). All had the same rationale: taxes and housing were simply far too high when they could work remotely and live anywhere else. Sure, you don't get the same outdoors, food or retail scene, but ple…

This is the mindset I really don’t understand though. Sure your company can say “we’re all remote” today, but they can just as easily say “everyone has to come back” in six months. Or “everyone doesn’t have to, but those who don’t are the first laid off next time”. I’ve been fully remote since March, so I’ve been weighing this for awhile”

For engineers, at least, were used to finding new jobs fairly quickly and easily. It’s not worth it to live in a bad situation for an unknown amount of time because you might need to find a new job sometime in the future otherwise.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#135

Post by seanmcdirmid »

kyleblarson wrote: post #111

That title reads super awkwardly. Anyway, on the flip side, the trend seems real from my observations. I live in a mountain town in North Central Washington. The real estate market has seen around a 35% price increase, homes are selling in hours all cash and almost every builder is already booked through 2021. It's almost exclusively people bailing from Seattle.

But Seattle has seen the same thing, the market has gone crazy here and there isn’t much housing supply to meet demand. That is just the forsale market, rentals are much weaker.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#136

Post by ada1981 »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #113
komali2 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree that it's a demand problem alone. There was tons of new construction. If I wanted to, I could have moved to any neighborhood in the city on a whim... As long as I was willing to move into a brand new luxury apartment $4k studio. The demand was high for reasonably priced older units. "Just add new construction" doesn't work if all that gets built is luxury apartments.

I'd argue that new construction is inherently a luxury just because people are willing to pay so much more for it. You can't just directly build reasonably priced older units, any more than you can directly build beater cars.

>> build beater cars Didn’t stop Elon...

:p

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#137

Post by tarsinge »

zdragnar wrote: post #86
burlesona wrote: post #51

I would say the city being “closed” is the major driver. Among my group of ~40 coworkers, about 30 (including me) have left the city. As far as I know all but one were renting. Everyone who left gave the following rationale: - we can work remotely so move wherever or nomad now - SF is not very fun during the pandemic - WFH in my tiny apartment is much less enjoyable than when I was working in the office and didn’t sp…

As a counter anecdote, I know three people from the bay area who moved out during covidtide, but had already planned the move beforehand. (This is a very high percentage of people I know from the bay area, hence the anecdote). All had the same rationale: taxes and housing were simply far too high when they could work remotely and live anywhere else. Sure, you don't get the same outdoors, food or retail scene, but ple…

> food or retail scene

In my experience this is becoming less and less true, smaller cities are really catching up, it's not 2010 anymore. My pet theory is that social networks like Instagram have done a good job spreading fashion and food experiences/expectations that were previously exclusives to big city centers.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#138

Post by brogrammernot »

PascLeRasc wrote: post #90
burlesona wrote: post #51

I would say the city being “closed” is the major driver. Among my group of ~40 coworkers, about 30 (including me) have left the city. As far as I know all but one were renting. Everyone who left gave the following rationale: - we can work remotely so move wherever or nomad now - SF is not very fun during the pandemic - WFH in my tiny apartment is much less enjoyable than when I was working in the office and didn’t sp…

Compared to other big tech-hub cities, I'd think SF would be one of the better ones to spend the pandemic in. There's great parks like Dolores, Lands End, etc, and they'll still be comfortable to be in during this winter. Is there more to it than that?

I’ve seen a lot of folks come to Arizona during the pandemic, and I think more will move here. Outside of the summers, which aren’t that bad because you have A/C, and in the summer you’re an hour from being in the forest with pine trees and three hours from Flagstaff where it’s great weather year round (plus a ski mountain in the winter) you got a lot of folks from California coming & staying while looking at much more affordable housing & taxes.

Especially as Arizona has become more and more liberal/left leaning, you got less folks viewing it as hostile & enjoying the fact you have a lot of hiking/outdoor activities, rivers, lakes and camping all within a short driving distance.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#139

Post by gfxgirl »

issa wrote: post #39
mxcrossb wrote: post #26

> The figures underscore how the pandemic has roiled property markets and changed renter preferences. With companies allowing employees to work from home, people have fled cramped and costly urban areas in droves, seeking extra room in the suburbs or cheaper cities. I am skeptical. Yes a lot of Bay Area companies are allowing work from home for now, but are people really weighing that so heavily that they’re moving?…

I would counter that proximity to work is a huge influence on where people decide to live. There are (or will be) bars and restaurants everywhere, which means if you can work from home, there is significantly less incentive to live in a small, overpriced apartment.

The bars are restaurants available in most cities in the USA do not compare to the bars and restaurants in cities like SF, Los Angeles, NYC, Tokyo, Paris, etc.....

I mean places like Flagstaff Arizona, or Temecula California, etc.... In the cities listed in the first paragraph there are, unique bars (not sure what word to use) and interesting restaurants. In most cites there are just places like AppleBess and the local versions of same. If that makes me a bar/food snob okay but what's available in many cities is just not comparable in random small city.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#140

Post by baby »

mxcrossb wrote: post #26

> The figures underscore how the pandemic has roiled property markets and changed renter preferences. With companies allowing employees to work from home, people have fled cramped and costly urban areas in droves, seeking extra room in the suburbs or cheaper cities. I am skeptical. Yes a lot of Bay Area companies are allowing work from home for now, but are people really weighing that so heavily that they’re moving?…

I’m one of these people who just moved out of SF. AMA.
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