Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response

Post by emodendroket » Fri, Oct 09, 2020, 12:54 AM UTC

sfblah wrote: post #116

rst wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This also assumes that acquired immunity from an infection is complete and permanent. Immunity to other coronaviruses decays over a year or two -- meaning that before the five years are up in your scenario, there would be a significant cohort of prior victims open to reinfection. See, e.g., https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1083-1

So, maybe that means by slowing the infection, what we're really doing is ensuring a neverending slow wave of infections ... forever? Maybe what normally happens with these kinds of viruses is they infect everyone then die out? And if you slow that, they never die out?

Post by aidenn0 » Fri, Oct 09, 2020, 1:29 AM UTC

ars wrote: post #108

matthewdgreen wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the reason that HN, Reddit et al. have this impression is that state policies in conservative states are explicitly less restrictive than those in less conservative states. Florida just removed all stadium event attendance limits, for example. Within any given state there are all kinds of political beliefs and economic situations that may be more or less correlated with spread, but state governance is a very…

And yet New York and California, both states with primarily liberal policies, have more cases than anyone else. It's pretty obvious to people watching that the impression was created by liberal media that just wants to bash conservatives. A cursory check of the numbers shows that it has no basis in reality.

Post by nradov » Fri, Oct 09, 2020, 2:56 AM UTC

Animats wrote: post #107

saalweachter wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was a recent study of dialysis patients: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... TLDR: "During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, fewer than 10% of the US adult population formed antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, and fewer than 10% of those with antibodies were diagnosed."

That's for the month of July 2020, which is useful, but not enough. We need trend data for this.

Post by D_Alex » Fri, Oct 09, 2020, 3:00 AM UTC

sfblah wrote: post #116

rst wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This also assumes that acquired immunity from an infection is complete and permanent. Immunity to other coronaviruses decays over a year or two -- meaning that before the five years are up in your scenario, there would be a significant cohort of prior victims open to reinfection. See, e.g., https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1083-1

So, maybe that means by slowing the infection, what we're really doing is ensuring a neverending slow wave of infections ... forever? Maybe what normally happens with these kinds of viruses is they infect everyone then die out? And if you slow that, they never die out?

Post by aidenn0 » Fri, Oct 09, 2020, 3:06 AM UTC

username90 wrote: post #134

aidenn0 wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

California is roughly the median state in terms of total per capita cases at this point. Top 5 states: Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida, North Dakota, Alabama

California under reports deaths quite a lot though, they are much worse at reporting deaths than average for USA. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronaviru...