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1-Euro Houses

1eurohouses.com

131–140 of 196 posts

Re: 1-Euro Houses

#131
post #91
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over the past 30 years buy-to-let has fundamentally changed the housing market to the point where I honestly don't believe there'll ever be a housing market crash again. Rich people will buy up all the available housing stock to rent out (or to AirBnB) if there's a small price drop. That will stop there ever being a big price drop. Barring a sea change in housing policy that enables massive amounts of new houses to b…

Add to this the fact that governments (at least in the US, and in many other countries) have made it clear that housing won't be allowed to fall. This combined with money printing means the price is almost guaranteed to rise. The reason is that for most homeowners their home equity is the majority of their savings, and homeowners vote in higher proportion than renters (on average). Any politician that allows home val…

How has it been made clear that housing won't be allowed to fall? The held-low interest rates?

Re: 1-Euro Houses

#132
post #91
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over the past 30 years buy-to-let has fundamentally changed the housing market to the point where I honestly don't believe there'll ever be a housing market crash again. Rich people will buy up all the available housing stock to rent out (or to AirBnB) if there's a small price drop. That will stop there ever being a big price drop. Barring a sea change in housing policy that enables massive amounts of new houses to b…

Add to this the fact that governments (at least in the US, and in many other countries) have made it clear that housing won't be allowed to fall. This combined with money printing means the price is almost guaranteed to rise. The reason is that for most homeowners their home equity is the majority of their savings, and homeowners vote in higher proportion than renters (on average). Any politician that allows home val…

> There is one way out of the housing price trap: telework plus ubiquitous broadband via things like 5G and Starlink.

I don’t buy that. People don’t like to live in cities primarily because of jobs, but because living in cities is fun. People like to be close to other people, exchange with others and their community.

Living in a small town sounds depressing to me, no matter how fast the internet connection might be.

Maybe if you create your own commune, bring in a social circle from the city. But that has a tendency to fall apart.

Re: 1-Euro Houses

#133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are shortable futures contracts tied to US housing price indexes[1], but they're highly illiquid (rarely trade, and have wide bid/ask spreads). This is probably related to the difficulty of hedging, since as another poster points out housing is not fungible, and to the very high transaction costs involved in buying or selling the underlying. [1] https://www.homepricefutures.com/

Yeah I know about those. Robert Shiller was behind this project, in his mind many mortgages should be bundled with a put option on such an index. I agree. Needles to say his idea didn't catch on. Here I was thinking about shorting specific homes, those for which one of the parent comments implied that their value is substantially lower than the current asking prices. It's a very futuristic idea, though not entirely i…

Interesting idea! Who would take the other (long) side of the trade? Why would someone who thinks housing prices are going up not just buy a house outright?

Re: 1-Euro Houses

#134
post #81
post #5

Im +30 in Spain and I thought the demographic winter would land some great opportunities to buy a home. But looking into some deserted municipalities everything keeps being expensive, despite the extremely low demand (and I know this because I scrape the listings and track em). If I want to buy a shitty house that needs restoration I'm investing over 200k. Not to mention that the land registry holds values way above…

Sometimes I wish that people could short sell homes ...

Some people say that all kinds of real estate speculation should be put to an end ...

Re: 1-Euro Houses

#135
post #109
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lots of free space! Look at how relatively sparsely populated the area around Berlin is: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6e/Pop_dens... Germany has a very low fertility rate & even immigration isn't enough to make the population grow more than very slowly so if a lot of people moved westwards and into the cities it means a lot of people moved out of the east and the country side. Also almost the enti…

Berlin winters ... mild?

Yes, we've lived here since 2013 and there has been maybe a week of snow per winter (it was above freezing the rest of the year). It is almost unheard of to have icey roads and sidewalks (which was normal every winter when we lived in Austria before that).

Re: 1-Euro Houses

#136
post #91
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over the past 30 years buy-to-let has fundamentally changed the housing market to the point where I honestly don't believe there'll ever be a housing market crash again. Rich people will buy up all the available housing stock to rent out (or to AirBnB) if there's a small price drop. That will stop there ever being a big price drop. Barring a sea change in housing policy that enables massive amounts of new houses to b…

Add to this the fact that governments (at least in the US, and in many other countries) have made it clear that housing won't be allowed to fall. This combined with money printing means the price is almost guaranteed to rise. The reason is that for most homeowners their home equity is the majority of their savings, and homeowners vote in higher proportion than renters (on average). Any politician that allows home val…

The more they keep the artificial prices, the harder will be the fall. You'll see that, and 1929 would be a child's play compared to that.

Re: 1-Euro Houses

#137
post #5

Im +30 in Spain and I thought the demographic winter would land some great opportunities to buy a home. But looking into some deserted municipalities everything keeps being expensive, despite the extremely low demand (and I know this because I scrape the listings and track em). If I want to buy a shitty house that needs restoration I'm investing over 200k. Not to mention that the land registry holds values way above…

Or you could just wait. A lot of people have been surprised that the housing market hasn't crashed. Two of the theories are: 1: supply is more elastic than demand. In other words, more sellers took potential listings off the market than buyers stopped looking. 2: governments printing money inflated investor assets like stocks and real estate. If these are true, a backlog of listings from could flood the market next y…

> Or you could just wait. ... 2: governments printing money inflated investor assets like stocks and real estate.

Waiting will only help modestly. In the meantime, while you wait, your purchasing power is being destroyed, which is likely to put you in an at-best net break-even scenario on waiting.

2a) Asset prices - such as housing - have been permanently adjusted higher because the real standard of living, the real value of the currencies in question (USD and Euro in this case) have been debased by the central banks and their wildly aggressive 'printing.'

Skeptical? You can see this vividly in the permanently set higher price of things like gold, oil, platinum, copper, silver. Gold isn't going back to $200 or $400 ever again. A gallon of milk will never be $0.25 again. Housing isn't going back, either. What you're seeing are permanently higher lows and higher highs on housing prices, as the currencies are getting destroyed. The average person can't outrun the destruction, only people with liquid assets can attempt to keep up. That isn't to say there can't be a drop in real-estate prices, rather, it's to say that the drop won't roll prices back to a prior band/range.

Occasionally we get a very dramatic demonstration of this destruction in action, as in ~2003-2007, the commodity bubble, caused by the disastrous US financial policies during the Bush years, which smashed the dollar and sent everything else soaring when priced in dollars (also nicely represented in the extreme skyrocketing in GDPs - when priced in dollars - in every other nation on the planet at exactly the same time; eg Czech's GDP went up 300% in just seven years, 2002-2008, priced in dollars; needless to say, their economy didn't actually expand by 300% in that time, that was the USD imploding).

The US has seen very modest real growth over the last 20 years, and a lot of inflation (housing, healthcare, education, vehicles, maintenance costs, etc.). Most people can't keep up with the asset inflation vs their incomes. The same is true in most of Europe, the EU has seen net zero growth for about ~13-14 years now (and that's ignoring the setback from the virus). People can only tolerate this situation for so long before you get hefty civil unrest or political revolution, we've prominently seen a taste of it in the US and France, and elsewhere.

Do you know why software developers are now earning a median of $110,000 per year in the US? Because they're one of the few segments keeping up with inflation at all (thanks to the super fat margins in the industry and global reach of US tech). $70,000 in 2000 is about equal to $110,000 today (and that's a poor adjustment, because major costs like education & healthcare & housing have soared over that time). Or price it in gold over time (up 500%+ since 2000), and then you'll see, the software developers are actually struggling to keep up, and everyone else is de facto drowning.

Re: 1-Euro Houses

#138
During a similar initiative, friends of mine in Italy have been kicked out by the local community, jealous they could enjoy such benefit.

Maybe some of these repopulation projects don’t consider enough the effect over the local rural communities, which are usually very conservative and suspicious toward “strangers”.

Re: 1-Euro Houses

#139
post #4

If Italy is anything like Germany in terms of conservation laws, you wouldn't want those buildings even if they were accompanied by a small to medium pile of cash. It will cost you more than building anew to restore usability while observing all the conservatory dos and don'ts.

Rules in Italy about restoration are very detailed, but, depending to the place, restoration using original materials and techniques is not that expensive, it may be even cheaper.

In Italy, at least in my experience, what increases the costs are taxes, and requirements to declare the “habitability” of a place...

Re: 1-Euro Houses

#140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I know about those. Robert Shiller was behind this project, in his mind many mortgages should be bundled with a put option on such an index. I agree. Needles to say his idea didn't catch on. Here I was thinking about shorting specific homes, those for which one of the parent comments implied that their value is substantially lower than the current asking prices. It's a very futuristic idea, though not entirely i…

Interesting idea! Who would take the other (long) side of the trade? Why would someone who thinks housing prices are going up not just buy a house outright?

Perhaps to take advantage of overly-pessimistic short sellers? :P

Not that I'm taking a position either way, I actually suspect (real) prices will probably fall if interest rates ever normalise.

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