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Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?

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Re: Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?

#131
post #83

Ideas are easy to find, it's just that the bounds that we have been limited to work within, both economically and societally, have become tighter and tighter. Today, the leadership of the vast majority of private institutions have only the goal of increasing their own economic power, and similarly there is constant media production reminding people how important the almighty economy is, causing people to focus on any…

>Ideas are easy to find

Regis McKenna, the marketer who introduced first Apple, first microprocessor Intel. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Z13NI0SuyA at 4:30

"The span of my existence in the valley is going to collapse to about a third, maybe less in your lifetime and the challenges that you are going to have in the office and the opportunities is going to be very very significant but it's going to require a lot of you much more than of me or of anybody in the past because the technology moved actually fairly slowly"

Re: Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?

#132

It may just be a change in the way that we work. This paper may just as well be titled "Are institutions getting less effective?" or "Are research institutions getting less effective?". Hell, it might even be that our smartest people aren't researching and the amount of brainpower we throw at research problems has actually decreased even though the effort/money we throw at research problems has increased.

It may just be a change in the way that we work. This paper may just as well be titled "Are institutions getting less effective?" or "Are research institutions getting less effective?". Lots of progress might be stymied by entrenched interests using laws, regulations, or some form of corporate bureaucracy/cronyism as a "moat" to ward off competition. The short shrift paid to EVs by auto makers and car dealers before…

No, I'm thinking more in the context that research professorships are not what they once were. They have effectively become a kind of sweatshop labor to the academic research institutions for which the reward is a PhD and then the delightful prospect of becoming an adjunct professor.

Such tremendous effort for little reward tends to dissuade many of the brightest minds from research careers and towards other careers like finance or consulting.

Re: Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?

#133
post #117
post #83

Ideas are easy to find, it's just that the bounds that we have been limited to work within, both economically and societally, have become tighter and tighter. Today, the leadership of the vast majority of private institutions have only the goal of increasing their own economic power, and similarly there is constant media production reminding people how important the almighty economy is, causing people to focus on any…

> Ideas are easy to find, it's just that the bounds that we have been limited to work within, both economically and societally, have become tighter and tighter. An idea I've been having lately, and one that might be unpopular on this site, is that we've found all the low-hanging in electronics, networking, and software. So the main reason why it seems like there are no new ideas is because we're only looking at place…

There are still millions of ideas. You just need to look around a little more and massive problems (opportunities) are everywhere. In my job (tech leadership consulting, dev, etc) we deep dive on a new company/industry every few weeks when kicking off new projects and it seems like every niche industry or business has like 50 grotesque inefficiencies and incumbent crappy solutions providers just waiting for someone with the right design and software skills to come by, make the investment, and grab the business.

If you are lacking in inspiration, go work for a consulting company for a year and your idea bucket will be full to overflowing.

Re: Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?

#134
post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ideas are easy to find, it's just that the bounds that we have been limited to work within, both economically and societally, have become tighter and tighter. An idea I've been having lately, and one that might be unpopular on this site, is that we've found all the low-hanging in electronics, networking, and software. So the main reason why it seems like there are no new ideas is because we're only looking at place…

There are still millions of ideas. You just need to look around a little more and massive problems (opportunities) are everywhere. In my job (tech leadership consulting, dev, etc) we deep dive on a new company/industry every few weeks when kicking off new projects and it seems like every niche industry or business has like 50 grotesque inefficiencies and incumbent crappy solutions providers just waiting for someone w…

This was originally in response to your parent, but gonna attach it to your comment instead, cause you're right.

I don't believe we've found the low-hanging fruit at all, it's still all over the place.

There are hundreds of pieces of software and hardware that are expensive, or unintuitive, or user-hostile, many are all of the above. HN complains every day about bad software. Is this really the best we've got?

There's just no way. What it does take is people willing to take a step off the usual treadmill and getting their talent and ability sucked into large companies and willing to take a risk to build their own stuff. That ability is there, the will is not. Some people have 30,000 HN comments. You're telling me 10k of those detailed thoughtful comments aren't absorbing time that can be put into building better stuff?

Hardware is thousands of times more powerful and cheaper than it was 20 years ago. Software is likewise more capable, or at the very least, libraries are way more abundant.. Say what you want about new languages, but I'll take the option of Rust, Nim, Go, Clojure, etc, than what existed 15 years ago any day. Not that that stuff was bad, but today you have the option, and it's fucking cheap to build.

Why aren't we building? Why do we act like we need millions of dollars in funding to do stuff you can do in your underwear? Do we really believe all the good ideas are gone or have been executed well? That seems crazy to me. I just think we're lacking imagination and we've adopted a woe is me attitude (I know I struggle with this all the time).

That's just software, where greenfield stuff is cheaper than anything in the world, where implementing your thoughts is a matter of sitting down. If you've worked in any business, you know of the inefficiencies within, and if you've worked in a big one, you really know about them.

There is so much low hanging fruit! Just about any product you can pick up in your house, any regular process you go through, there's a major opportunity to look at that and think about how that can be done better and cheaper and more reliably. What's more, that's about the easiest thing to do, because it's just working off what already exists.

Sorry if I'm not more specific, but there's gonna be people looing back in ten or twenty or two years and wondering how so many people missed x or y or z, which in retrospect is so obvious.

Re: Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?

#135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We were on the gold standard until 1971, so most of the tech you just mentioned were developed while on a gold standard.

Well technically yes. It effectively died in the 1930s when England stopped using it and the US forced citizens to hand over all gold. Its peak in usage was ~1870 to ~1910. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/09/gold-standard.as...

We were still on the standard through the 70s, but FDR and company did devalue the dollar with respect to gold during the 30s to finance all the New Deal programs. Bretton Woods in 1944 re-established the gold standard for the dollar and then all other currencies were pegged to the dollar and that continued until 1971, when Nixon "temporarily" suspended it, effectively creating the modern fiat boondoggle we have today.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system

Re: Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?

#136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are still millions of ideas. You just need to look around a little more and massive problems (opportunities) are everywhere. In my job (tech leadership consulting, dev, etc) we deep dive on a new company/industry every few weeks when kicking off new projects and it seems like every niche industry or business has like 50 grotesque inefficiencies and incumbent crappy solutions providers just waiting for someone w…

This was originally in response to your parent, but gonna attach it to your comment instead, cause you're right. I don't believe we've found the low-hanging fruit at all, it's still all over the place. There are hundreds of pieces of software and hardware that are expensive, or unintuitive, or user-hostile, many are all of the above. HN complains every day about bad software. Is this really the best we've got? There'…

I think its a case of diminishing returns - yes there is sucky legacy software everywhere, but the ROI was much greater when introducing software in a space where there was none, or the incumbent system hasn't met growing needs.

Re: Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?

#137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably hard to quantify economic motivation over long periods of time with very different cultural environments. Economic motivation seems a strange label for what would have been basic survival for early agricultural societies. I think what feels strange now is that we've had these massive increases in productivity over 150 years, but it hasn't translated to more leisure or less stress. I also think there's a diff…

The last 150 years have absolutely seen huge increases in leisure time. Notice that in the Bible, there is only one day of Sabbath, the rest of the week is work. A 6.5 day work week was standard for millennia. This idea of a relaxed bucolic existence like a Monet painting was always a myth. "Less stress" isn't defined enough to discuss, but I for one will say I don't stress about finding food over winter. My ancestor…

You say 150 years, and then reference the bible? That happened more than 150 years ago.

Re: Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?

#138
post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ideas are easy to find, it's just that the bounds that we have been limited to work within, both economically and societally, have become tighter and tighter. An idea I've been having lately, and one that might be unpopular on this site, is that we've found all the low-hanging in electronics, networking, and software. So the main reason why it seems like there are no new ideas is because we're only looking at place…

There are still millions of ideas. You just need to look around a little more and massive problems (opportunities) are everywhere. In my job (tech leadership consulting, dev, etc) we deep dive on a new company/industry every few weeks when kicking off new projects and it seems like every niche industry or business has like 50 grotesque inefficiencies and incumbent crappy solutions providers just waiting for someone w…

I’ve gone to doctors the last couple of years for minor, but not-small maladies and they have no treatments. Even in medicine there are common problems that plague big portions of our populations but no one wants to solve. I’m guessing it might be the same in the industries commonly discussed here.

They may not be businesses, but they could certainly be features.

Re: Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?

#139
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A new licensing model where it's prohibitive to make a profit off of this work.

And without any intellectual property rights, what prevents someone from simply ignoring the license?

Exactly! Only because of IP rights you can enforce a license.
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