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Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#131

Post by ceejayoz »

mrfusion wrote: post #116
three_seagrass wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The federal government should have enacted stay at home measures. By leaving it up to the states, it's been bungled and the covid outbreak is lasting longer and killing more people. This leads to stay at home needing extensions and a further drain on the economy.

I really think martial law at the federal level would have been the end of our democracy. I don’t think it’s a good trade off. The current measures aren’t doing so bad in the realm of possible outcomes.

There are a lot of steps before martial law.

Hell, have the President do a public address from the Oval calling on the states to issue a coordinated stay-at-home order. Lay out the reasoning, the benefits.

Would've helped in Florida, apparently.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-p...

> “I’m in contact with [the White House task force] and I’ve said, ‘Are you recommending this?’ ” DeSantis said. “The task force has not recommended that to me. If they do, obviously that would be something that carries a lot of weight with me. If any of those task force folks tell me that we should do X, Y or Z, of course we’re going to consider it. But nobody has said that to me thus far.”

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#132

Post by AznHisoka »

quickthrowman wrote: post #23
mLuby wrote: post #2

And yet the stock market is already recovering. I guess "worst crisis since Great Depression" has been priced in?

The market is pricing in a smooth recovery without a second wave of infection. It is not pricing in how much this will affect the poor, due to a cultural and class disconnect. I bet 50% of residential renters don’t pay rent for May. It seems we’re wildly overextended, but I booked a loss on some short-term puts today so maybe my judgement isn’t the best. I’m still holding longer dated puts because I think we go down,…

Just hearing Powell, members of the Fed and the talking heads in CNBC makes me think they live in some sort of crazy bubble. To think we can bounce back immediately is absolutely bonkers. Half my tenants can’t pay the rent the next few months, some have lost their jobs, layoffs are now happening in non-consumer industries and software spend is mostly halted. Everyone will be cautious in traveling to public venues, let alone spending a lot on frivolous goods for the rest of the year.

There just won’t be a quick bounce back.

But I guess if you live in the Hamptons and have a nice comfy job interacting with the rich all day, you probably are unaware of all this..

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#133

Post by secondo »

mrfusion wrote: post #94
lisper wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you assume a mortality rate of 1% (which is probably in the ballpark) then you can expect 75 million deaths without intervention. So far world-wide we've had about 95,000 deaths. So doing nothing would result in about 700 times as many deaths as have occurred so far. I'd say it's probably to soon to throw in the towel.

It seems you’re presenting a False dilemma. Doing nothing isn’t the only alternative. Sweden is one example of a different approach.

Good luck. Sweden is a country which in large has an overwhelming trust in it's government and its intents. There is no part or cultural aspect of Sweden, which inherently believes it needs to arm itself to protect itself from its own government, and even less so as part of its constitution (grundlag)[1]. When told to behave in a certain way, Swedes will follow suit.

Separately Sweden is also a country with an extensive social safety net, where every citizen has the right to free healthcare and every employee will receive 80% of their salary for two weeks without a doctor's note at no cost for the employer[2].

Time will tell if the Swedish approach was the right one and even if so the Swedish case will end up being dependant on rather unique constraints that simply will not map to the US, at least not on a national level.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Amendment_to_the_United... [2] https://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=1130&langId=en&in...

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#134

Post by dmfdmf »

I predicted this 2 weeks ago; https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22699657

Addendum; With the Fed printing money like there is no tomorrow the US dollar could lose reserve currency status and if that happens then it will make the '29 crash look like a cake walk. Overnight the US standard of living will drop 20-30% and slowly grind even lower over the next decade.

Silver lining? It will finally put an end to the parasitic Military Industrial Complex and endless "regime change wars" (as Tulsi Gabbert would say) but also end the welfare state overnight. There will no longer be Magic Monetary Theory money to fight over for either political party.

Losing reserve currency status is not a fait accompli at this point so watch the dollar/bond market and price of gold as this will tell the tale. Because there is no real alternative to the dollar at this point, they could still pull a rabbit out of their hat and save the system. Beware that your precious 401K/IRA money is not your money and is the only pile of cash that the politicians can use to slow a dollar sell off. Look for bank bail-ins and mandatory 401K/IRA purchases of US Bonds as cover for Fed bond buying.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#135

Post by locococo »

bpodgursky wrote: post #84
lisper wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you assume a mortality rate of 1% (which is probably in the ballpark) then you can expect 75 million deaths without intervention. So far world-wide we've had about 95,000 deaths. So doing nothing would result in about 700 times as many deaths as have occurred so far. I'd say it's probably to soon to throw in the towel.

This doesn't factor in QALYs saved at all though. The average COVID-19 death in Italy is 78 years old and sick. The average hunger death is going to be young, otherwise healthy, and in the developing world (likely somewhere in sub-saharan Africa). You can draw your own measures, but I would not personally weight these lives saved equally. I would personally throw several 78 year olds under the COVID-bus to save the l…

I think every life is worth saving. Your argument is a slippery slope. People of old age have contributed to society their entire life and the real perversion is that we should not be at a point where such thoughts make it into public discourse.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#136

Post by gruez »

jdc wrote: post #53
swsieber wrote: post #32

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

I can't help but think we could close a lot less shops if everyone wore (even sub-N95) masks

>What’s so strange to me is how much trust is being placed in these test results

This is meme by this point but: it's possible that uncertainty has already been priced in by the markets. I don't think any trader actually thinks the infection rate is exactly what the official numbers are.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#137

Post by pmorici »

NomDePlum wrote: post #115
pmorici wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Universal mask wearing is part of the approach they have taken in South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore and it seems to have largely worked in those places. The whole "masks don't work" line being pushed by the US government and the media seems to be about keeping people from buying masks that are needed in the hospitals. In the process they are sort of lying to people about the effectiveness of mask wearing as a piece…

Only with other controls. It's ridiculous and will certainly lead to more deaths to suggest that only wearing certain types of masks is in any way a valid solution of any type. This sort of misdirected conversation will kill people. Please stop it. It is highly irresponsible. If you disagree please cite a credible source. Please do not include anything relating to any of Trump's briefing as those are all discredited…

You are arguing against a straw man, literally no one is suggesting that masks by themselves are a magic cure all. If masks don't have efficacy then why do hospital staff wear them? The CDC's own guidance for air travel says that people in close proximity with sick passengers should wear masks. In an environment when anyone you encounter is likely to be sick wearing a mask makes sense as part of the overall strategy.

[0] https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/air/managing-sick-travelers/c...

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#138

Post by gruez »

ip26 wrote: post #110
magicsmoke wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UN was created so countries like the US and USSR could have a forum to talk with each other and avoid nuking the entire world. How well do you think the UN would have helped those two cold war superpowers coordinate on a global pandemic? What you're looking for is a world government, not an international forum.

Or at least some kind of world health authority, e.g. a WHO with teeth. Don't have to have the whole world government part.

Given the baffling array of pro-china behavior by the WHO lately, I'm not so sure that's a good idea.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#139

Post by bpodgursky »

locococo wrote: post #135
bpodgursky wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This doesn't factor in QALYs saved at all though. The average COVID-19 death in Italy is 78 years old and sick. The average hunger death is going to be young, otherwise healthy, and in the developing world (likely somewhere in sub-saharan Africa). You can draw your own measures, but I would not personally weight these lives saved equally. I would personally throw several 78 year olds under the COVID-bus to save the l…

I think every life is worth saving. Your argument is a slippery slope. People of old age have contributed to society their entire life and the real perversion is that we should not be at a point where such thoughts make it into public discourse.

That's a reasonable sentiment, but it's not the world we are in, and we will be making economic and health decisions over the next 18 months which will force this tradeoff.

They need to be intentional choices, with an understanding of the costs, where the costs are often paid by people we don't see or frequently think about.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#140

Post by corpMaverick »

redis_mlc wrote: post #50
swsieber wrote: post #32

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

It already happened. The West will be litigating unpaid rent, etc. for the next decade since there aren't enough court rooms. What we fundamentally got wrong is that ventilators don't work in 66% - 90% of cases, so "flattening the curve" was largely pointless and distracted leaders from low-tech solutions like quarantine centers and palliative care. We should have learned that in 2002 from SARS-1, but nobody even see…

Flattening the curve provides valuable time to figure out the best strategies. Like the ones you mention and more.
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