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Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

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Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#131

Post by bryanrasmussen »

I do wonder if this decision doesn't have a Brexit component, the transition period will be over the end of this year, so I guess that is when the real bad stuff from Brexit will start becoming clear, if you mess up your economy the year before by lockdowns then what happens when things go really downhill?

If you don't lockdown, and other countries do, can you somehow benefit? I would say no that doesn't make sense but I somehow have the feeling that the people who currently lead the UK do not share my understanding of what is reasonable in any way whatsoever so maybe they would have a Baldrick level cunning plan in mind?

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#132

Post by ubercow13 »

new2628 wrote: post #108
mattmanser wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much does every day in lockdown hurt the economy? Flattening out the infection curve too much means increasing the economic harm by a much larger degree. Calling a lockdown a week too early, means continuing it a week extra on the other end or you risk a sudden, unmanageable peak. I don't envy any politician the decision, but pandering to panic and locking down too soon will cause a lot of harm too.

At a larger level, "hurting the economy" may be the best thing to happen in a long time for (1) the environment, e.g. clean air, (2) family time, (3) cutting out some useless activities that go on due to sheer inertia, like formula-1, olympics, auto shows, most conventions, etc., (4) give people and societies a chance to slow down, think through things and refactor a system that was running full speed towards the wal…

Doesn't seem so clear. During a recession, you might have less money for investing green technologies. No one will be able to afford an electric car. You might get more family time but the stress of the main earner being unemployed will mean it's not high quality.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#133

Post by haunter »

mattmanser wrote: post #61
haunter wrote: post #54

I like tomp's comment from a few days ago, feels like the UK playing a game theory https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22555643 1) no pandemic, no action -> government was "right", avoided wasting money -> reelected 2) no pandemic, action -> government was "wrong", wasted a lot of money, damaged the economy, inconvenienced the lives of the population -> voted out 3) pandemic, no action -> government was "wrong", cau…

This clip of the political sitcom Yes Minister from the 1980s is making the rounds on our social media, as it explains that thought process succinctly, and hilariously: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qNjFIwRYEIo

What's the title of the show? :D

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#134

Post by mschuster91 »

akerro wrote: post #114
xadoc wrote: post #90

There is no proof immunity will happen, the UK Gov is thinking in economic terms and worried about GDP. https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/mar/13/coronaviru...

Killing older population will provide £350M/weekly for the NHS and decrease financial gap between generations.

Good god, making the choice of killing people for saving on pension borders on Nazi-level eugenics.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#135

Post by cirrus-clouds »

Here is a discussion on Channel 4 on the approach taken by the UK government.

https://youtu.be/C98FmoZVbjs?t=590

Debating are:

- John Edmunds: a professor in the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

- Tomas Pueyo: his modelling of the pandemic has gone viral on the web: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop...

During the debate, Pueyo throws up his hands in horror at what the professor says. Listening to them both, I honestly don't know who is right. You may think a level-headed response is the right approach rather than an emotional one. But there is something cold, clinical and unemotional about the UK's strategy to tackle this pandemic.

And can you "nudge" people to adopt certain behaviours in one country when the rest of the world is doing the opposite to what you advocate?

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#136

Post by bryanrasmussen »

Animats wrote: post #118
beaunative wrote: post #85

It looks like to me just a comfort pill for the public. They basically acknowledged that they can't handle the crisis already. So what they gonna do? They want it to appear to be an advice from expert, to persuade the public, rationalize a forced decision. The uncomfortable truth is, the British government have weighted cost and benefit, and they have decided, the death of thousands or more is not worth the cost of n…

The uncomfortable truth is, the British government have weighted cost and benefit, and they have decided, the death of thousands or more is not worth the cost of near-absolute lockdown of a country, It might lead to total breakdown of the economy, full-recession, and that may cost more lives anyway. And so begins the Great Reaping. Get rid of the old and the sick, so the nation can move on, freed of the burden of car…

isn't the current government disproportionately voted in by the old? It seems somehow short-sighted this.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#137

Post by JamesBarney »

There is a huge flaw in this thinking which is that the disease takes about 5 days before symptoms and another 5 before hospitalization.

And many places put the virus doubling time in several days. So the hospital situation will get 5x to 20x worse after they initiate lockdown.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#139

Post by NullPrefix »

soVeryTired wrote: post #121
akerro wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Killing older population will provide £350M/weekly for the NHS and decrease financial gap between generations.

Stop it. This is bigger than Brexit.

Stop it because it is incorrect or stop it because it is insensitive?

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#140

Post by bonzini »

vanniv wrote: post #65
stefano wrote: post #33

One region of Italy is close to their ICU beds limit, despite a full lockdown. And they have more beds per person than the UK. Without a full lockdown, won't they run out of beds very quickly, thus increasing the death rate a lot?

The average age of a fatal case is still north on 80 years. The UK plan is effectively to get as many people as possible that are young, and thus at a super low risk of needing hospitalization to get infected, so that they can recover and then be immune, thus making it hard for the virus to sweep through again. If 30% or more of the population were immune, it would be much harder to get a new outbreak started. With a…

> The UK plan is effectively to get as many people as possible that are young, and thus at a super low risk of needing hospitalization to get infected

The risk is already not that low at 55-65. These are people that are working and thus very likely to catch it.

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