Denmarks shuts down all schools, daycare facilities, universities, highschools

Post by bitL » Wed, Mar 11, 2020, 9:35 PM UTC

hef19898 wrote: post #113

bitL wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is a good thing in both cases you mentioned. Though seeing those visualizations could put things in a proper perspective and prompt officials to act quickly while they could still do something about it. Many health experts are worried and are expressing their concerns publicly already. /r/covid19 is trying to keep all posts scientific and high quality, maybe you can monitor it over there for latest info.

Not that active on reddit, but given that the data presentation from WHO and co. is abysmal, both in style and depth, I might give it a try. Not that I am following it to closely until now, so. Might change, so. I would love to get my hands on the raw data the WHO has so. Not post any results online or publicly, but to toy around with them. It is such an intriguing data set!

Post by Consultant32452 » Wed, Mar 11, 2020, 9:41 PM UTC

contravariant wrote: post #27

laxd wrote: post #14

Norway got more cases than denmark (622 vs 514), and our government is still asleep. The "wait and see" attitude makes shure they are always 3 steps behind.

At this point the number of cases is slightly less important than the rate. Denmark's numbers are increasing at a rate that's unprecedented amongst all current COVID-19 outbreaks (amongst the data that is available). The past 2 days the numbers in Denmark have tripled twice (and are on track to triple another time today). You could expect Denmarks numbers to overtake Norway's before the end of today or whenever the n…

Post by arcticbull » Wed, Mar 11, 2020, 9:43 PM UTC

adonovan wrote: post #117

arcticbull wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe, or maybe not. Let’s say it’s 0.5% fatal and largely only to folks who are older and have comorbid conditions. Instead we panic 100% of people, leading to mass hysteria, loss of livelihood, global recession, military zombie apocalypse lockdowns and so on. What if our response causes more harm? It might well. Proportionality of response matters and so do second and third order effects. What if all the above caus…

The difference between 0.5% and 3% case fatality rate is in large part determined by whether hospitals become overwhelmed, and that in turn will be determined by whether we take immediate and widespread preemptive action to reduce the exponent of the infection curve.

Post by arcticbull » Wed, Mar 11, 2020, 9:45 PM UTC

dplavery92 wrote: post #128

arcticbull wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

0.5% lethal according to the latest stats — or 99.5% non-lethal for you optimists out there.

Generate a random int from [0,199]. If you generated a 0, you die. Rationally, you pretty confident that you won't die? Sure. But what behavior changes are you willing to tolerate not to have to take the chance? I sure wouldn't take the bet on a lark, even though the expectation is that I live. Now think about extending that same game to your family and friends, to the school down the street, to the shopping mall, an…

Post by phillipseamore » Wed, Mar 11, 2020, 9:46 PM UTC

kgwgk wrote: post #136

phillipseamore wrote: post #116

Interestingly Iceland, which has most of it's infections from Italy (and the other Alpine countries), designated those countries as areas with high risk of infection long before those countries would admit it, is not looking into these kinds of closures. I understand that they request people not to gather in large groups, on a completely voluntary basis and anyone is free to self-quarantine with pay or benefits. The…

30 intensive care beds may prove insufficient if there is widespread infection. Not only the elderly need intensive care: in Italy 40% of the patients in intensive care are below 60.