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First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

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Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#131

Post by Enginerrrd »

ohazi wrote: post #59
Enginerrrd wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wearing an N95 mask and washing your hands properly will prevent the overwhelming majority of transmission. Could someone still sneeze in your eye? Sure. Could you wear your mask improperly because you haven't been fit tested, yeah. But you sure can reduce your risk a lot.

> Could you wear your mask improperly because you haven't been fit tested, yeah. It is next to impossible to wear an N95 mask correctly.

They come in a lot of different flavors. I have been fit-tested several times with success. Some are definitely easier than others.

Do I think that every 0.3 micron or above particle is getting filtered out by the mask for the duration that I wear one? Not really, but I do believe confidently that it is getting the vast majority. Certainly enough to measurably reduce risk.

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#132

Post by akiselev »

dmix wrote: post #124
yingw787 wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whoops, confused Hajj with Arba’een. I did not know about the latter and I assumed that they were the same. Arba’een is much larger than the Hajj.

That's surprising, Hajj gets a lot more press/prestige it seems. Saudi is a similar sized population as Iraq, that infographic comparison is interesting to say the least: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Middle_Eastern_countri... (Iran, not listed, is 81.16M)

The Hajj is a once in a lifetime pilgrimage for most Muslims while the Arba'een is an annual regional event of Shia solidarity. The former is done by a far greater number of unique individuals but the latter can be bigger on an annual basis.

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#133

Post by Fomite »

yingw787 wrote: post #38

I read on Reddit that Chinese New Year is the largest regularly occurring human migration event in the world. Millions of Chinese people gather on public transport and planes To go home to celebrate. It’s in a few days I think. Also I’m not sure how the CDC is preparing for this under 45, but given the state of the federal government I would guess it’s less prepared than the days of the Ebola scare. Hopefully things…

A couple notes, from an infectious disease epidemiologist:

- The CDC Director is, in rare form for this administration, not someone devoted to dismantling the agency he's in charge of. I work with the CDC fairly frequently, and they're in pretty good shape.

- This is our third novel coronavirus, and the 2nd out of China. There's been a lot of prep work for this.

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#135

Post by Aperocky »

exposay wrote: post #108

China has been covering it up for 2 months. Minimal action was taken to prevent the disease from spreading and they kept denying until a couple days ago when it was no longer possible to cover it up because it is spreading to neighboring countries who have been complaining for the whole time. Regional/local governments have been trying to downplay it because it makes them "look bad". It is essentially a replay of SAR…

Source?

From wikipedia:

> The first suspected cases were reported on 31 December 2019

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#136

Post by Fomite »

ebiester wrote: post #111
glofish wrote: post #17

I feel like it has been so long since the swine flu, bird flu, H1N1 flu, and other flu scares that we are due for one. Like the recessions the flu scares are cyclical.

First, this isn't a flu. This is a coronavirus, related (but not identical) to both the common cold and (more closely due to subtypes) SARS. That said, while I am not an epidemiologist, this doesn't seem nearly as fatal - about a 2% compared to a 9.5% of SARS and 10-15% of the Spanish Flu. Remember that known cases will usually have more serious reactions than less serious cases - milder cases won't go to doctors. I…

I am an epidemiologist. Right now, the case fatality definition is bonkers. 2.3% is the low estimate, and it goes way up. The high estimate is 91%. That's just a uselessly broad figure because it's still very early days.

If I had to guess, I'd guess it's probably around the level of SARS/MERS.

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#137

Post by yzh »

It is not SARS, but it is highly possible that it was caused by people who kill and sell wild animals in the live poultry market. Where these animals like gem-faced civet got virus from bats. It is a long-held tradition for certain regions in China to eat wild animals. We even have a Chengyu called: 山珍海味, meaning precious and tasty animals from mountains and seas. Most wild animals are not evolved to be eaten by human, so not like beef or pork, they do not taste well. People only eat it because they can. Because they want to show others that they can. This is sad.

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#138

Post by Fomite »

notadoc wrote: post #78
munificent wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Spanish Flu was almost exactly 100 years ago. Recent enough that we think of it as being in modern times with relatively modern medicine and hospitals. My grandmother lived through it, so this isn't the distant past. Current estimates are that it killed up to 100,000,000 million people, as many as the black plague. We have much better medicine now, thankfully. But we also live in a much more deeply connected worl…

> We have much better medicine now, thankfully. Do we? Against a deadly and virulent flu virus causing viral pneumonia? Not really without development of a highly effective vaccine. You have better life support, but that's about it. Something like ECMO is extremely invasive and limited to maybe a few per ICU.

"Something like ECMO is extremely invasive and limited to maybe a few per ICU."

Better supportive intensive care is exactly what lowers the case fatality rates for viral pneumonia. And this is very unlikely to become a hospital capacity problem.

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#139

Post by tanilama »

Aperocky wrote: post #135
exposay wrote: post #108

China has been covering it up for 2 months. Minimal action was taken to prevent the disease from spreading and they kept denying until a couple days ago when it was no longer possible to cover it up because it is spreading to neighboring countries who have been complaining for the whole time. Regional/local governments have been trying to downplay it because it makes them "look bad". It is essentially a replay of SAR…

Source? From wikipedia: > The first suspected cases were reported on 31 December 2019

It is just pointless bashing, covering up 2 months? Think how this pandemic had escalated in a week, and neighboring countries will not notice it for 2 months?

Some people have some weird imagination

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#140

Post by yingw787 »

Fomite wrote: post #133
yingw787 wrote: post #38

I read on Reddit that Chinese New Year is the largest regularly occurring human migration event in the world. Millions of Chinese people gather on public transport and planes To go home to celebrate. It’s in a few days I think. Also I’m not sure how the CDC is preparing for this under 45, but given the state of the federal government I would guess it’s less prepared than the days of the Ebola scare. Hopefully things…

A couple notes, from an infectious disease epidemiologist: - The CDC Director is, in rare form for this administration, not someone devoted to dismantling the agency he's in charge of. I work with the CDC fairly frequently, and they're in pretty good shape. - This is our third novel coronavirus, and the 2nd out of China. There's been a lot of prep work for this.

That's wonderful to hear!
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