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Never mind the 1 percent Let's talk about the 0.01 percent (2017)

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Re: Never mind the 1 percent Let's talk about the 0.01 percent (2017)

#131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that a serious question? Bill Gates provided a very valuable service that runs most personal computers to this day along with productivity tools that have improved almost every business in the world. He also built one of the largest companies in the world that now employs over 100 thousand people. If there is anyone who should be disproportionately rewarded it would be Bill Gates. He now has a large fortune, which…

Yeah, and he stopped doing all that in 2004. Why does he deserve the profits from the hard work done by thousands of engineers to make Vista, 7, 8, and 10, which he had absolutely nothing to do with?

The reason is because the future value of a company was a part of his compensation, for creating the company in the first place.

There is nothing wrong with selling away the future value of your contributions, or for other people buying the future value of your contributions.

Re: Never mind the 1 percent Let's talk about the 0.01 percent (2017)

#132

>Smith, Yagan, Zidar, and Zwick find that the 1 percent’s income is being driven by owner-managers, mostly of small and medium-sized companies—specifically S corporations, partnerships, and limited liability companies. These are talented managers: the researchers find that profits of companies run by these 1 percent-ers are far higher than those of businesses owned by people in the top 5-–10 percent >“The demand for…

“Wealth inequality needs to be considered in the context of overall prosperity and despite the fearmongering you see online, most Americans are doing well. Even our poor have modern conveniences, access to emergency healthcare, generally safe food and infrastructure - eating the evil rich and redistributing their wealth is unlikely to solve any of the major issues in the country, as we're already throwing tons of mon…

I also have a big problem with the reasoning of the quoted argument, at least from a United States point of view.

Our poor do have modern conveniences, because that’s what the world does; it evolves with current technology. They have access to emergency healthcare, which will almost inevitably bankrupt them when they need treatment. “Generally safe food” is not good enough in what is supposed to be one of the top first world countries. Infrastructure? Sure. Depending on how poor you are you’ll have varying access to infrastructure.

This hasn’t happened out of concern for our poor. The poor are getting society’s leftovers.

I don’t particularly care if we’ve “thrown tons of money at schooling and healthcare and the like” when we spend exponentially more money on the US military. Teachers across our country are still underpaid, and our education system is still not taken seriously enough. The US is not in the top 10 most educated countries (K-12), despite being a top first world country. Admittedly, money wouldn’t fix all the problems with our education system, but it would make a big difference.

It sounds like this was written by someone with a limited frame of reference.

Re: Never mind the 1 percent Let's talk about the 0.01 percent (2017)

#133
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> disproportionate contributions Do you really argue that the people in the top 0.01% are contributing to society at a rate hundreds or thousands of times higher than the rest of the people? And in the case of heirs, such as the Walton family, are they contributing so vastly more than the guy who mows people's lawns during the day and cooks their dinners in a restaurant at night? Or how about the Renaissance folks. T…

>Oh wait, let's talk nurses and schoolteachers. They pretty clearly contribute very heavily to society, and they get paid pretty poorly. Are they really contributing less, by factors of tens or hundreds, than Larry Ellison? I've been thinking about this lately. A schoolteacher generates huge value for dozens of people per year. A CEO of a big firm may generate tiny value for millions or billions of people per year. I…

You are giving the CEO credit for everything positive that the company does. Shouldn't some of the credit go to the workers?

Not to mention, many companies are a net negative to society.

Re: Never mind the 1 percent Let's talk about the 0.01 percent (2017)

#134
post #83

>Smith, Yagan, Zidar, and Zwick find that the 1 percent’s income is being driven by owner-managers, mostly of small and medium-sized companies—specifically S corporations, partnerships, and limited liability companies. These are talented managers: the researchers find that profits of companies run by these 1 percent-ers are far higher than those of businesses owned by people in the top 5-–10 percent >“The demand for…

> disproportionate contributions Do you really argue that the people in the top 0.01% are contributing to society at a rate hundreds or thousands of times higher than the rest of the people? And in the case of heirs, such as the Walton family, are they contributing so vastly more than the guy who mows people's lawns during the day and cooks their dinners in a restaurant at night? Or how about the Renaissance folks. T…

Here’s a counter-argument I’d like to try out. I don’t know how good this one is, but…

The value that you add depends on what you do.

First example: someone who manufactures useful widgets is useful to society roughly in proportion to the number of widgets they make — this is probably non-linear diminishing return of usefulness with more production, but I think in practice we can ignore that most of the time for simple manufacturing jobs.

The range here is small, perhaps only a factor of 2-10.

Second example: an inventor who makes a machine that makes it easier to make those widgets. Their value to society could be as much as “difference in number of widgets produced by everyone combined, totalled over a period which is hard to even estimate”, unless that number is so large that diminishing returns is relevant. Unlike the people who actually make the widget, it’s reasonably likely for the person who invents a widget-making-machine to reqch this point. You might even get some extra problems from technological unemployment - short term or long term, it’s still a problem - or the waste of overproduction.

It isn’t as simple as saying “Tim Berners-Lee is as valuable as the entire internet”, because of all the work of other people that built on his, but even a single invention can benefit society to the tune of billions.

Third example: an entrepreneur who recognises a problem in the world and creates a solution. A new type of widget, or whatever. In an optimistic case, they might hire people that would otherwise be unemployed.

I’m not saying this always happens - and “wealth creator” as a term seems to be used to describe people that get rich by moving money around rather than just those who get rich by doing what I describe here - but that it could happen means it’s worth keeping track of.

I would argue that creating a thousand new jobs is at least as valuable to society as the cost of a thousand unemployed people, though almost certainly not as valuable as the wages those thousand earn in the new jobs, because that would be double-counting.

This could still easily be worth millions per year.

Fourth example: Management. Most work is done by teams, and a manager who can make their team 10% more productive is worth as much to society as that productivity boost, summed over the entire team.

I will acknowledge that management can be bad as well as good, so the sort of manager which makes everyone in the team resign (a friend mine recently left such a team because of such a manager) is worth negative their combined productivity.

I can easily believe that Bezos has been an enormous force multiplier because of all the other retailers that have not grown like Amazon. I can believe that Musk is great for SpaceX and entirely average for Tesla, because of how well SpaceX is doing and how averagely Tesla is doing.

How much is SpaceX worth? How much is reducing launch costs by a factor of three worth? I’m not sure, but it’s a lot, and SpaceX succeeded where all the other launch providers — and their, I assume, equally smart engineers — failed.

As a separate point, I totally agree with your implicit claim that productivity != income.

Re: Never mind the 1 percent Let's talk about the 0.01 percent (2017)

#135
post #38
post #28

I’d love to see an analysis of who the top 0.01% are, in terms of income. My guess is the people who make the list this year, drop off the next and never end up on it again. The top people (again income) are the folks that sell their company or equity stake. It’s a huge windfall, but they never make that much again.

My guess is the opposite. The top people are the owners of very large, very often inherited, fortunes. Few people leave that group and few people enter it.

That’s wealth, not income.

And if you own a large company, you have no income (beyond a salary) unless you sell equity.

There are probably people worth $1B+ who aren’t in the top 0.01% because they’re money stays invested and they don’t pull income from selling.

Re: Never mind the 1 percent Let's talk about the 0.01 percent (2017)

#136

>Smith, Yagan, Zidar, and Zwick find that the 1 percent’s income is being driven by owner-managers, mostly of small and medium-sized companies—specifically S corporations, partnerships, and limited liability companies. These are talented managers: the researchers find that profits of companies run by these 1 percent-ers are far higher than those of businesses owned by people in the top 5-–10 percent >“The demand for…

> This really doesn't come off as a problem

It doesn't "come off as" a problem, because that is how you have personally interpreted the situation.

> that needs solving

It doesn't in fact "need" solving - life will go on, one way or another, regardless of whether policies are changed or not.

> and instead sounds like a purely political war cry.

In may in fact be "a political war cry", but is it purely that, or might there actually be something here that deserves attention?

> These aren't lords abusing powerless peasants

This is true, but colorful, rhetorical characterizations like this are an excellent way to persuade people without sticking to cold hard facts.

> they're contributing members of society being disproportionately rewarded for their disproportionate contributions

This rhetorical device is effective in that it persuades readers to logically think of the issue as a binary rather than a continuum.

The proper question is: is their disproportionate reward proportional to their disproportionate contribution? And even this improved statement of the situation is flawed in that is kind of implicitly assumes that the relationship between contribution and reward should be linear, which is inconsistent with the general societal decision that taxes should be progressive (the tax rate(!) increases as the taxable amount increases).

And to be clear, I'm making no absolute claim that progressive taxes are "right", I am only stating that this is what society generally deems "proper". This aspect of the situation seems absent from your analysis, so it seems appropriate to point it out.

> despite the fearmongering you see online

This style of rhetoric is persuasive, and it may even have some truth to it, but it is orthogonal to a proper logical analysis of the actual issue and should therefore be avoided.

> ...most Americans are doing well. Even our poor have modern conveniences, access to emergency healthcare, generally safe food and infrastructure

This style of rhetoric is persuasive in that it frames the issue according to one specific perspective (a subset of dimensions) on the overall (the entire subset of dimensions) issue.

A loose (and uncharitable) restatement of this might go something like: "Because most people are "doing well", then therefore there is nothing to see here." I will note that this isn't actually what you are saying, I'm just pointing out the beauty of rhetoric - when done well, it invokes a style of thinking, which results in real-time generation of certain "facts", without actually having to explicitly say certain things (ex: dog whistling). It can cause the reader to change the way they conceptualize the situation, and therefore change their conclusion from that which it would be if they were to engage in a purely factual analysis of the situation in its entirety.

This isn't to say that you are doing any of the above consciously and with intent to deceive, I'm simply pointing out some of the flaws that are ever-present in the way modern society, politicians, advocates, etc engage in communication. It's no wonder we've made such a mess of things.

People believe they think logically, based on facts, because this is how it seems to each of us. Bu in such matters what people actually do is think in narratives, that are very loosely (and often incorrectly) based on "facts" (most of which are also narratives), and then only a subset of the entirety. This is by necessity, because outside of the hard sciences, systems are far too complex and interconnected to think about using pure logic and facts. However, it's not a necessity to think we think in facts - this we are capable of realizing, and many philosophers and psychologists have amply demonstrated this, but the realization of the importance of this has not made it's way into widespread knowledge, and certainly not into behavior in discourse, even that between highly intelligent people.

I wonder if awareness of such complexities in communication was widespread throughout society, if we could improve the outcomes of our political process. I suspect we'll never know.

Re: Never mind the 1 percent Let's talk about the 0.01 percent (2017)

#137
post #28

I’d love to see an analysis of who the top 0.01% are, in terms of income. My guess is the people who make the list this year, drop off the next and never end up on it again. The top people (again income) are the folks that sell their company or equity stake. It’s a huge windfall, but they never make that much again.

My guess is that such a list is probably mostly the same as the wealthiest people due to the nature of capital gains. If you have a billion dollars, you get probably 10 million a year with the most conservative investments (in reality it's probably closer to a 5-15% rate of return). On top of that, the favorable tax treatment of long term capital gains means you pay way less in taxes than the schmuck who gets paid 10…

You only have income if you sell. The rest is unrealized gains not reported as income.

Re: Never mind the 1 percent Let's talk about the 0.01 percent (2017)

#138

>Smith, Yagan, Zidar, and Zwick find that the 1 percent’s income is being driven by owner-managers, mostly of small and medium-sized companies—specifically S corporations, partnerships, and limited liability companies. These are talented managers: the researchers find that profits of companies run by these 1 percent-ers are far higher than those of businesses owned by people in the top 5-–10 percent >“The demand for…

This post reminds me of my leadership at a former employer who were insisting on releasing a game console that requires customers to download all content and games, regardless of the fact that unlike gigabit internet offered in our city, many Americans don’t have access to or cannot afford broadband. That leadership team only hanged course because the negative perception spread like wildfire and made them look extremely incompetent. They didn’t care about the customer - they only even changed course to manage their own careers but I digress.

In some cases, these people are lords abusing powerless peasants. Most of America isn’t Seattle, Austin, NYC, or the Silicon Valley. People can work for WalMart in the town I grew up in or go unemployed because WalMart swallowed competition. They’re literally at the mercy of whatever WalMart wants to pay them.

Our poor have emergency healthcare but will get bankrupted in the process.

They have safe food insofar as they won’t die of typhoid or hepatitis like in the developing world, but they don’t have healthy food. They have access to various forms of packaged, refined sugars. A diet based on cheap access to these goods will only lead to longer term health problems - there’s scientific data backing that claim.

Interesting how you frame your argument - that the poor aren’t as horribly off as perhaps in another century or in the developing world, and so it’s good enough. The same argument can and should be used to call out the endless greed, especially of the 0.1%. Don’t have they have enough? Are they they some of the richest folks in human history?

Re: Never mind the 1 percent Let's talk about the 0.01 percent (2017)

#139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who holds a master's degree in economics, and is getting a PhD in genetics, I can tell you virtually everyone studying the "soft" sciences conflates observations with natural laws. There is nothing stating that a Pareto distribution is optimal. It's only a distribution based on observation, and it just happens. The underlying mechanisms are not immutable.

Eh, what are you saying is mutable here, exactly? The only way of getting a 0.5 Gini ("absolute equality") is if everyone is earning the same, which is ridiculous. As soon as you throw any randomness in there, well, all of a sudden you get inequality. Next, there are the (totally reasonable) winner-take-all mechanics of skilled labor. Are you a better CEO (where "better" here could just mean better at pitching/sellin…

No, you're mistaken. There's a computer simulation that's been posted here, where you run a population and each element gives 'a dollar' to a randomly chosen other element every step, if possible. For no reason: no merit, no purpose, no meaning.

This produces not just 'inequality', but the power-law distribution. The only thing you can't know is which element will be the '0.01%' master of the universe, because nothing distinguishes it from the 'poor' elements as it's only a simulation.

The point this establishes experimentally is that through simple value exchange you get the same distribution people associate with meritocracy and market dynamics, without any elements of choice or distinctions of merit being applied.

Skill and value have nothing to do with it: the problem is purely mechanical, the system will substantially punish and reward elements in the system quite outside of any consideration of merit. Once you introduce merit, skill etc. you're only exacerbating the problem.

Wealth tax, even in very tiny amounts, is quite good at turning the power-law distribution into a more random-looking distribution as one might expect it should be. And usually people aren't talking about Gini 0.5, nor does anyone aspire to that unless it's as a form of rebellion against the extreme opposite. People will tolerate an enormous amount of inequality if their own lives aren't too acutely threatened.

Re: Never mind the 1 percent Let's talk about the 0.01 percent (2017)

#140
post #83

>Smith, Yagan, Zidar, and Zwick find that the 1 percent’s income is being driven by owner-managers, mostly of small and medium-sized companies—specifically S corporations, partnerships, and limited liability companies. These are talented managers: the researchers find that profits of companies run by these 1 percent-ers are far higher than those of businesses owned by people in the top 5-–10 percent >“The demand for…

> disproportionate contributions Do you really argue that the people in the top 0.01% are contributing to society at a rate hundreds or thousands of times higher than the rest of the people? And in the case of heirs, such as the Walton family, are they contributing so vastly more than the guy who mows people's lawns during the day and cooks their dinners in a restaurant at night? Or how about the Renaissance folks. T…

The questions you ask are effectively asking that the markets use the Labor Theory of Value [1] to price labor (and this goods) rather than the way labor is priced currently which is a form of Supply and Demand [2].

The current form of global capitalism doesn't really have a direct corollary to the LTV pricing mechanism.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labor_theory_of_value

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_and_demand

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