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Rent vs. Buy Visualization of Top 50 Cities

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131–140 of 151 posts

Re: Rent vs. Buy Visualization of Top 50 Cities

#131
post #29

I'm from Australia but now live in NYC and I've been debating the question about whether to buy or rent. It's amusing to me to see a big red circle on this graphic for NYC. I can understand why. NYC is a special case in many ways. For one thing, from a purely financial perspective, your best bet is to find a rent stabilized apartment that is well under market value and then invest your money elsewhere, possibly on bu…

Buying property in Australia at the moment would appear to be highly risky. I was hesitant back in 2002, and it's far worse now. The only thing that has kept prices high is the incredible increase in rent, which I'm still struggling to fathom. In 2004 I was renting a 110^m 2 bedroom apartment on the Brisbane river for $780 a month. Australia has managed to inflate their housing market further, thanks to government in…

Brisbane is an interesting case. Between about 1992 and 2002, property in the city went basically nowhere value wise. I bought a property in 2001 for 20% less than the owner had paid in 1994. Then, in about 2002/2003, it nearly doubled overnight and has never looked like going back. I foolishly sold a house in 2002 which was listed 2 years later and brought more than double the price I had bought it for. It's again in a long slow slump (compared with inflation) - this is likely to persist for some years. So your experience exactly covers the period of greatest growth in Brisbane.

I agree with you, though, current conditions make it risky. However for the OP now would be a good time to convert some USD into well-located Australian property.

Re: Rent vs. Buy Visualization of Top 50 Cities

#132
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Urban density has been increasing markedly in Australia over the past few decades, at least in Sydney. Not quite as fast as some folks would like (ie everybody with a spare quarter acre that they'd rather put up twenty units on) but density is certainly going up. In my opinion, though, what Australia really needs to do is to develop the infrastructure outside the major cities to persuade people to move out there. Aus…

Generalising enormously, the capital cities are already perched in the best locations. A successful city needs two major things: ready access to water and ready access to trade. That's why most major cities are on rivers or around major harbours. Take my home town Darwin, for example. It is not destined to be one of the world's great cities because it is poorly positioned. There's buckets of water but due to the flat…

This type of thinking doesn't explain Houston, Las Vegas, Phoenix - the list goes on. These are large cities by Australian standards but fit very few of your criteria. Las Vegas depends on the Hoover Dam, but certainly not trade or shipping.

Water supply is the major issue in Australian cities, but this can be solved (see Kalgoorlie) if people put their mind to it. I agree that Australia needs to develop the regional areas more.

Re: Rent vs. Buy Visualization of Top 50 Cities

#133
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Generalising enormously, the capital cities are already perched in the best locations. A successful city needs two major things: ready access to water and ready access to trade. That's why most major cities are on rivers or around major harbours. Take my home town Darwin, for example. It is not destined to be one of the world's great cities because it is poorly positioned. There's buckets of water but due to the flat…

This type of thinking doesn't explain Houston, Las Vegas, Phoenix - the list goes on. These are large cities by Australian standards but fit very few of your criteria. Las Vegas depends on the Hoover Dam, but certainly not trade or shipping. Water supply is the major issue in Australian cities, but this can be solved (see Kalgoorlie) if people put their mind to it. I agree that Australia needs to develop the regional…

Houston is actually the 2nd biggest port in the USA and 6th biggest in the world. It's also surrounded by oil and natural gas. Phoenix and Vegas are weird ones, but most large cities in the USA are on a big lake, river or ocean, or some combination of those.

Re: Rent vs. Buy Visualization of Top 50 Cities

#134
post #29

I'm from Australia but now live in NYC and I've been debating the question about whether to buy or rent. It's amusing to me to see a big red circle on this graphic for NYC. I can understand why. NYC is a special case in many ways. For one thing, from a purely financial perspective, your best bet is to find a rent stabilized apartment that is well under market value and then invest your money elsewhere, possibly on bu…

I met someone once who purchased their place in Manhattan in November 2001. At the time it couldn't be lived in, but they had faith that the city and the affected area would recover, which it has and I think they would have done well. The thing with buying property anywhere is that it always seems like a bad deal, but that's because most people underestimate the propensity of governments to inflate currencies. It doesn't take many years of high inflation for 'real' things like property to quickly rise in value. And, purchasing at the top of bubbles notwithstanding, most of the time the land value underneath the property will stay pretty constant. The house itself must be seen as a depreciating asset, but the land underneath will increase in value as long as the location is both desirable and economically growing (even better if it is above trend of the economy).

The problem with long-term renting is that, while you can theoretically engineer a better return by allocating as much as the principal component of a mortgage payment to one or more investment classes - most people don't. The key benefits to owning a property are (IMO) * inflation hedge * forced savings (the principal component of your mortgage) * security of tenure * ability to modify the property as needs arise (like extending, remodelling, putting in network cables and server racks!) * access to further credit for other investments after equity is accumulated

These things vary country by country but the list is pretty much constant. The most important thing is to not get carried away and only purchase what you can realistically afford, and to allocate as much money to paying down the mortgage in the first 5-10 years.

As for the yield equation - like value stocks, it's where the story is. Most places at some point or another in their economic cycle will end up where the yield is very attractive, and that's the time to buy. And, as a wise old italian investor who could buy and sell me many times over once told me (after I made my first mistake) : never sell your property. Ever. Buy right in the first place and keep forever. If you find yourself hearing everyone say that real estate is a bad investment and see that rents are approaching mortgage payments, then buy as much as you can as quickly as you can.

The last 50 years has been the story of real estate growing in value. This may or may not repeat over the next 50 years, because demographics, national politics and household formation have all changed in that time. But inflation has been with us since the first clever financier decided to use paper money, and will stay with us while that is still the case. If you purchase with your head and don't listen to anyone else, you'll do fine.

Finally - on the lowest economic growth - in Australia, in the USA - in a lot of places - the cheap credit of the '00s has led to an over-investment in residential property. This takes credit and investment away from other parts of the economy where it could be used productively. And it results in banks being dangerouslly over-exposed to residential property as an asset class. I think this needs to be addressed, and pro-ownership govt programs(see FHMC in USA, First Homeowners grants in Aus) need to be dumped, despite the short term pain this would cause. Because the economy isn't going to get going again until all the bad debts and bad investments are cleared up and swept away.

Re: Rent vs. Buy Visualization of Top 50 Cities

#135

I was talking to a real estate broker from phoenix on my flight last weekend. He said you can buy distressed homes for < $100k and condos/townhomes for < $50k. He's got clients buying properties, renting them in less than a month, and having instant positive cash flow.

Any tips on where to find them? When I look through the mls I see very few forclosures.

I don't have any tips but you're very unlikely to find any good deals on the internet. I would identify a target area and devote 3-5 days just hitting the ground and running the numbers on places. You should know the numbers already so when you see a place you know whether it is pass/fail on inspection.

It's a universal rule of Real Estate that good deals never reach the paper, the internet or even the front window of the agency office. In fact they rarely make it past the first page of the agent's buyers contact sheet. Find an agent in the area you want to buy in, make it clear to them you are serious and give a definitive description of what you want to buy. Make it easy for them to do their job. Every agent wants to sell a place on the way back from getting a seller to sign up. Your number must be on the list of people to call. But don't give them a loose description or they will try and sell you the first piece of crud they find. Be very clear on the description and list out factors that will disqualify a property (main road, certain neighbourhood, certain type of construction, etc).

Start making offers. Sooner or later you'll end up with a place.

Re: Rent vs. Buy Visualization of Top 50 Cities

#136
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This type of thinking doesn't explain Houston, Las Vegas, Phoenix - the list goes on. These are large cities by Australian standards but fit very few of your criteria. Las Vegas depends on the Hoover Dam, but certainly not trade or shipping. Water supply is the major issue in Australian cities, but this can be solved (see Kalgoorlie) if people put their mind to it. I agree that Australia needs to develop the regional…

Houston is actually the 2nd biggest port in the USA and 6th biggest in the world. It's also surrounded by oil and natural gas. Phoenix and Vegas are weird ones, but most large cities in the USA are on a big lake, river or ocean, or some combination of those.

My bad with Houston. I must have been thinking of Dallas.

The factor with Las Vegas and Phoenix are that they are modern growth cities. You don't need a deepwater port to facilitate growth in a modern city, just a good airport, good road/rail links and good communications infrastructure. You could argue that Phoenix is propelled by retirees and golf players and Las Vegas by gambling - but the reason doesn't matter, just the fact that a city can be sustained does.

Re: Rent vs. Buy Visualization of Top 50 Cities

#139
post #16
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This same page for the largest 50 cities in the world would be useless. Unless you're very rich or European, it's very likely that the only comparisons that matter are domestic.

The top cities for buy/rent ratios are not necessarily the largest. And I know quite a few people who own properties in other countries who are neither rich nor European. One was an English IT contractor living in Australia who bought a small property in Auckland. Your "domestic" is not the same as everyone else's.

It's the buy/rent ratios of the top 50 largest cities, not the 50 cities with the best buy/rent ratio.

As for it not having US in the title. It is a .com. Technically that means it is in the US. If it was "Rent vs Buy, Top Cities" on Trulia.co.uk, I would not have clicked through becuase I would have known they were not talking about the US.

I don't see why every single time someone posts something they need to qualify it as "IN THE US!" when its on a .com already.

Re: Rent vs. Buy Visualization of Top 50 Cities

#140
post #8

Very very cool! I'm wondering why they chose 15 / 20 as the cutoff ratios though. I'm a licensed real estate agent in NYC and I've helped a number of clients make purchases where it was actually cheaper to buy than rent (usually a studio or 1BR, or outside Manhattan). It seems like you can finance a home purchase these days at 5% or less on 30-year fixed. Add in the mortgage interest tax deduction and you are really…

I agree. I just ran the numbers for SF. Based on mid-point of Trulia's buying and renting price ranges ($750K to buy, $3.25K monthly rent), I get the following annual real costs: buying: ~$24K renting: ~$36K That is based on the following assumptions: 40% margin tax rate, principal repayment is not a real cost (it's a saving account...) 15% down payment (renters invest the equivalent amount in a 3% annual return fund…

(liquidity premium as well as risk)
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