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NSA Official: We Need to Prepare for the Future of War

nytimes.com

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Re: NSA Official: We Need to Prepare for the Future of War

#131

Post by asdfman123 »

missosoup wrote: post #54
reubeniv wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's quite a scary one, drone swarms that outmatch humans by a huge degree might cause the losing side to surrender before a human life is lost, but they could also massacre the losing sides, satellites and communications of all sides are also likely go, then of course there's still nuclear armageddon

Drone swarms are casually countered with directed energy weapons of the variety that navy army and airforce are starting to field today.

Sure, but the future (unless we somehow stop it) is all the weapons of war becoming completely autonomous. Maybe little plastic drones won't help, but autonomous tanks, ships, missile launchers... you name it, and at some point they will be far more effective at killing than a machine with a human in it.

Re: NSA Official: We Need to Prepare for the Future of War

#132

Post by coldtea »

whatshisface wrote: post #112
coldtea wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think that's some kind of exception? All kinds of cyber criminals also work for western governments/agencies as consultants. E.g.: "Since 2000, Mitnick has been a paid security consultant, public speaker and author. He does security consulting for Fortune 500 companies and the FBI, performs penetration testing services for the world's largest companies and teaches Social Engineering classes to dozens of companies…

The difference is that Mitnick served his time (and is no longer considered a criminal in the US system) but in Russia you can get out of jail early.

Well, same in the US. You collaborate and agree to work with authorities on this on that, and you get a special deal to be released early (or get a reduced sentence to begin with).

At least according to all these episodes of Law and Order and such I've seen...

Re: NSA Official: We Need to Prepare for the Future of War

#133

Post by asdfman123 »

sailfast wrote: post #85

This opinion piece is borderline screed and I'm not sure what to make of it. Part of the piece is "OMG China!" with some pretty dubious assumptions, especially things like their GDP being bigger than the US is an existential threat. "The world is scary" is not a narrative I will respond to. Of course it is - it's bloody frightening. But have you tried framing the discussion in a way that is not so warfare and zero su…

> have you tried framing the discussion in a way that is not so warfare and zero sum-focused but rather collaborative?

We live in extraordinarily peaceful times. Those have cropped up throughout history. They have never lasted because balances of power shift. We are not at the end of history. We are a footnote in a history book written a thousand years from now.

I hope you're right, though.

Re: NSA Official: We Need to Prepare for the Future of War

#134

Post by stallmanite »

nradov wrote: post #55
HenryKissinger wrote: post #21

That states like China and Russia can recruit the best cybersecurity talent in their respective countries, and force them to work for the government, while the United States can't, is a problem. If I were the president, I would focus on talent recruitment and retention. Google is paying its top cyberstaff 700k? Offer them 1M. Also get rid of archaic hiring practices like drug tests, and streamline the process to obta…

The security clearance investigation process can already be expedited for urgent cases. However we absolutely should never lower clearance standards. Penetration by foreign agents could be far more damaging than a lack of top cyber security personnel.

Hassling people with drug tests doesn't keep out foreign agents.

Re: NSA Official: We Need to Prepare for the Future of War

#135

Post by yesbabyyes »

missosoup wrote: post #62
_Understated_ wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not convinced that nuclear weapons will be fired en-mass in anger as it means total annihilation for everyone whether involved directly or not. Imagine China fired all her nukes at the US and the US retaliated while the Chinese ones were in the air... there would be nothing left of either country within a couple of hours (or however long it takes to reach across the globe). Anything left would be uninhabitable fo…

1: MAD doesn't really work anymore because of the advent of hypersonic cruise missiles and the likes of russia's Burevestnik/Skyfall. There's probably not going to be a 1980s scenario of two sides launching all out against each other and having a few minutes to contemplate the end. 2: Tactical (not strategic) nuclear weapons are very likely to be used on the battlefield in the next major conflict involving the superp…

Let me see if I got this: Tactics is using the Queen to take out the opponent's pieces, while strategy is throwing the whole chess board to the floor in a tantrum?

Check.

Re: NSA Official: We Need to Prepare for the Future of War

#136

Post by missosoup »

asdfman123 wrote: post #131
missosoup wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Drone swarms are casually countered with directed energy weapons of the variety that navy army and airforce are starting to field today.

Sure, but the future (unless we somehow stop it) is all the weapons of war becoming completely autonomous. Maybe little plastic drones won't help, but autonomous tanks, ships, missile launchers... you name it, and at some point they will be far more effective at killing than a machine with a human in it.

Of course, that's already the case now for a lot of weapons. It doesn't fundamentally change the equation of war though. It's always been about machinery and the logistics to support it. There are very few exceptions, such as fighter pilots, where the actual humans are meaningfully expensive.

Now instead of having humans inside machines fighting other humans inside machines, it'll mostly be machines fighting machines. And yes, they'll be devastatingly effective against just humans but that's already the case with non-autonomous machines.

Autonomous weapons are a step on the existing tech advancement = force multiplier curve, I don't think they're fundamentally doctrine-changing. Like someone else commented here before, the actual game changer weapons will probably be biological. Unlike autonomous drones/tanks/whatever, advanced biological weapons will soon become available to just about any two bit state actor. Very little thought has been given towards defending against such attacks.

Re: NSA Official: We Need to Prepare for the Future of War

#137

Post by throwawaymanbot »

motohagiography wrote: post #129

We could call this historical period a great dis-integration where the consensus that formed the equilibrium of the last 60 years has been disrupted by tech, and we're looking at a period of volatility before reaching a new equilibrium. I've argued before that U.S. critical infrastructure vulnerability will prevent it from intervening in Taiwan and Hong Kong. Its lack of a strong homeland defensive posture on infrast…

[dead]

Re: NSA Official: We Need to Prepare for the Future of War

#138

Post by sailfast »

asdfman123 wrote: post #133
sailfast wrote: post #85

This opinion piece is borderline screed and I'm not sure what to make of it. Part of the piece is "OMG China!" with some pretty dubious assumptions, especially things like their GDP being bigger than the US is an existential threat. "The world is scary" is not a narrative I will respond to. Of course it is - it's bloody frightening. But have you tried framing the discussion in a way that is not so warfare and zero su…

> have you tried framing the discussion in a way that is not so warfare and zero sum-focused but rather collaborative? We live in extraordinarily peaceful times. Those have cropped up throughout history. They have never lasted because balances of power shift. We are not at the end of history. We are a footnote in a history book written a thousand years from now. I hope you're right, though.

I'm with you - you prepare for this stuff. You stand ready, but there are two (OK probably more haha) approaches to mitigating the risks in the world:

One approach is to ensure that you have relationships / commonalities / connections tight enough that extensive conflict does not help either party and work on the relationship. This balance has a lot of proxy wars and holds OK...until something upsets the balance. But if you have dialog in place maybe you don't blow up the world.

Another is to invest everything in the thing that will upset the balance: countries racing to the next version of a nuclear weapon - in this piece that is AI / Cyber.

Shifting everything as a society involves a lot of sacrifice that has (historically) also destabilized the society to the point that it collapses as a result.

I think there's wiggle room here, and when I say "collaborative" I don't mean that we're all sharing technology but rather that we are on a single planet and we already are codependent and maybe let's see the obvious benefits instead of immediately jumping to weapons.

In terms of tone I'd also wonder which tone is better for recruitment? "Kill the hun!" or "Build the future"? If they want me to work there, it's the latter.

Re: NSA Official: We Need to Prepare for the Future of War

#139

Post by TeMPOraL »

api wrote: post #81
blaser-waffle wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> > The first is that the unprecedented scale and pace of technological change will outstrip our ability to effectively adapt to it. Second, we will be in a world of ceaseless and pervasive cyberinsecurity and cyberconflict against nation-states, businesses and individuals. Third, the flood of data about human and machine activity will put such extraordinary economic and political power in the hands of the private se…

I've been talking about the prophecies of William Gibson for some time. He seems to have nailed the 21st century more than any other sci-fi writer.

Haven't read any of his books yet. Did he prophesize that all of this cyberpunk bickering will come to an abrupt halt as global warming destabilizes our civilization and kicks the survivors back to medieval age?

After recent stream of climate change articles I just can't read these NSA statements without thinking that they're worrying about the wrong thing.

Re: NSA Official: We Need to Prepare for the Future of War

#140

Post by neuralzen »

umvi wrote: post #42
HenryKissinger wrote: post #21

That states like China and Russia can recruit the best cybersecurity talent in their respective countries, and force them to work for the government, while the United States can't, is a problem. If I were the president, I would focus on talent recruitment and retention. Google is paying its top cyberstaff 700k? Offer them 1M. Also get rid of archaic hiring practices like drug tests, and streamline the process to obta…

Well, NSA used to have the best and brightest until Snowden. Now NSA can't get the best and brightest because they are conscientious objectors.

I remember at DefCon 20 Gen. Keith Alexander, the head of the NSA at the time, gave the keynote speech (largely about how we all share the same internet space so we should work together to keep things good for everyone) and the NSA had a recruitment booth set up showing off an enigma engine. Between DefCon 20 and 21 Snowden happened and the NSA was disinvited from future events because of it (of course they come anyway, but people need to earn 'Spot the FED' tshirts somehow). Some thought it put back trust and relations between hacker communities and the NSA by more than 10 years.
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