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Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

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Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#131

Post by manicdee »

tim333 wrote: post #125
JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's either a lie or psychotic delusion, I refuse to believe he is that uninformed and ignorant about the current state of autonomous driving.

I think he's counting on 'exponential improvement'. You can sort of see where they are going - they have features like summon in a car park or changing lane in traffic that sort of work and they are gradually going to tick off the various driving test skills you need at which point it will sort of work. Then he's hoping it will get reliable as the network learns. It's that last point that may be over optimistic.

The car also stops at signals and stop signs, and yields for traffic before turning. Did you watch the autonomy day presentations and demonstration drives?

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#132

Post by dwighttk »

dragontamer wrote: post #70
matz1 wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vertical integration. Tesla can have the chip solely focused on their specific needs. They ignore google/waymo because they won't sell them the chip anyway.

Elon Musk is pretending like Tesla can make money from this self-driving taxi idea. You can't make money from self-driving Taxis if Google/Waymo simply offers a similar service for cheaper right next to you. And yes, Google/Waymo has the vertical integration thing all figured out too. Now if you think that maybe Tesla's chip is useful for its M3 customers... sure. I strongly disagree with that fact, but you're certai…

>Elon Musk is trying to sell this idea... that Tesla can actually raise money by going into self-driving taxis.

While giving as much as $30K/year of the revenue to each of the car owners.

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#133

Post by manicdee »

mplewis wrote: post #66
agumonkey wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't buy his claims that lidar is non necessary and even inefficient at sdv ?

Elon/Tesla have a vested interest in making sure LIDAR isn't required by law for self-driving vehicles. In addition, his NN-camera-powered-cars are still trying to drive themselves into highway barriers.

Do you believe lidar is so necessary that it must be mandated by law?

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#134

Post by manicdee »

MaupitiBlue wrote: post #72

Anyone with a scintilla of intuition about human behavior would have recognized at least a year ago that Musk was begging for a way out of Tesla. The talks he gave about how overworked he was, the tweets, and the violation of the judge’s orders screamed out that he had given up.

He wants a way out of Tesla being a publicly listed company. If you had listened to him as much as you want to think you have you’d know his stress is due to obligations to shareholders and effectively working with one hand tied behind his back because as far as the board is concerned shareholder value is more important than anything else.

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#135

Post by klipklop »

DennisP wrote: post #128
StrangeDoctor wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But not when moving at highway speeds with many other moving objects.

Small birds chase each other around, fly through thick forests or jungle, dodge predators including larger birds, and fly in large flocks. Based on the squabbles I see from my front porch, they seem to at least match human drivers on reaction time. I'm not convinced absolute speed is that important of a variable, when comparing to something much smaller dealing with closer distances, but some birds actually do reach…

I have also seen birds fly into buildings, cars, planes and windows.

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#136

Post by matz1 »

dragontamer wrote: post #111
matz1 wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>if Google/Waymo simply offers a similar service for cheaper right next to you Right, if , tesla currently has the advantage being ahead, they have self driving (at some level) currently deployed for masses.

And Waymo has self-driving, with 10,000 miles per 2 or 3 disengagements... deployed right now in Phoenix Arizona. Safety drivers are still necessary for both. But the number of times the safety-driver interacts in Waymo/Google's car is way way less. EDIT: Actually, I'm not sure about Tesla's numbers. I heard 1 per 3 miles but I couldn't prove it through a google search. In any case, Tesla doesn't seem to be bragging…

And tesla have like maybe 100000+ car with self driving in the wild right now. This also provide tesla with tons of real live data.

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#137

Post by belltaco »

etrautmann wrote: post #104
Reedx wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps, but you can't dispute that humans don't have LIDAR. It's just a matter of time before AI can drive better than humans even if using similar vision. Especially in aggregate (e.g., factoring in distracted drivers).

Humans also have an unacceptable accident rate. The goal is to far surpass currently-accepted safety standards, and building a 3D model of the world at 10+ HZ can only help with that.

>Humans also have an unacceptable accident rate

How is it considered unacceptable? It has been acceptable for humans to drive in every country since 100+ years.

Anyway, the biggest problems with humans driving that cause accidents are distractions like smartphone usage, sleepiness, excessive speeding, tailgating, road rage, drunk driving, old age, being new to driving, being tired, medical problems like strokes, seizures, diabetic comas etc. which automated driving will solve.

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#138

Post by MaupitiBlue »

manicdee wrote: post #134
MaupitiBlue wrote: post #72

Anyone with a scintilla of intuition about human behavior would have recognized at least a year ago that Musk was begging for a way out of Tesla. The talks he gave about how overworked he was, the tweets, and the violation of the judge’s orders screamed out that he had given up.

He wants a way out of Tesla being a publicly listed company. If you had listened to him as much as you want to think you have you’d know his stress is due to obligations to shareholders and effectively working with one hand tied behind his back because as far as the board is concerned shareholder value is more important than anything else.

I didn’t claim I had listened to him much. I remember his “Skynet is coming” remarks at the national governors association, and prior to warning about AI he made some rather sad comments about how the stress was getting to be too much for him. Watch it on YouTube. It was clear that he was at a breaking point. Not to mention the Rogan interview.

I think Musk realized some time ago that Tesla was going to get close, but just shy of long term profitability. He’s looking for a way out that doesn’t involve him saying “uncle”.

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#139

Post by DennisP »

hef19898 wrote: post #121
Robotbeat wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is that no one makes a chip like Tesla wants that is tailored to their workflow. Tesla, by going with the 14nm process and inexpensively licensing core IP (i.e. for the ARM cores) and only customizing the NN portion, is able to keep chip dev costs low enough so that in the end they're saving a little money on unit costs, getting a power/performance benefit, and as a bonus is building in-house expertise that…

Regarding the last point, not really. It gave BMW access to smaller engines then they had in-house. AFAIK they switched to BMW engines once this whole down sizing started and they had the engines in house. And MINI sales were never an issue, so the idea was sound. Aside from some potential benefits down the road coming from proprietary chips I don't see why Tesla would do it. Also the use cases are so similar that th…

To go to Mars, SpaceX needs lots of steady revenue and low-cost launches. The more launches SpaceX does, the lower the cost per launch, due to the manufacturing learning curve and high reusability. Rather than wait for customers to come up with applications that require lots of launches, they made their own.

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#140

Post by senectus1 »

brianpgordon wrote: post #2

> a fleet of self-driving vehicles that will make their way into the robotaxi service as soon as next year. So... are we living on the same planet? Does Musk seriously think that Tesla will have solved full autonomous driving, with no LIDAR, and have commercialized a functioning robotaxi service, by next year ? This is so far outside of the realm of possibility that it's like saying he's going to Pluto next week.

He's not the only one working on this.

I think its seriously deliverable.

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