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Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

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Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#131

Post by toomuchtodo »

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #127
toomuchtodo wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Novelty doesn't define success. No car company has previously existed that is scaling towards 500k EVs delivered per year, with the capability to manufacture 135GW of energy storage per year. The Horndale Power Reserve in Australia has not only saved Australian energy consumers tens of millions of dollars, but proved that utility scale energy storage could be rapidly deployed and is cost effective. If these problems…

Again, not saying the problems are easy, and that Tesla hasn't had success, I'm just saying in the case of the self driving car, novelty WILL define success. I'm saying this is a different category of problem for Tesla to solve compared to others.

Perhaps, although I think full self driving will be how my kids develop. They crawl, they walk, they observe, they mimic, they vocalize, they can associate faces with people. They've become inquisitive. They reason. They update their world model with input. Slowly, but eventually, become a full blown adult. But there is no switch that causes it to happen overnight, and I think full self driving will be the same. You will see a feature here (lane keeping), a feature there (red light detection), an improved feature (automatic emergency braking reliably using the camera and structure from motion to assist front facing radar in discriminating potential obstacles), and all of a sudden you find yourself in a full self driving car (just as one day I'll look at my kids and think, "you're people now!").

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#132

Post by mhermher »

leesec wrote: post #112

Once again I gotta say the negativity is astounding. People are so stoked to be rooting for this American tech company to fail. I really don't get it. The main gripe I see is that Tesla misses deadlines or makes promises they cannot fulfill. Is this not super common in nearly every industry? Have none of you missed deadlines? I remember this article[1]from last year stating GM would release fully autonomous cars with…

GM didn't take any money for those cars did they? FSD is scammy vaporware, and they are selling it now. Tesla is a dishonest company run by a narcissist.

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#133

Post by AnthonyMouse »

simias wrote: post #49
metalliqaz wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that's not the same thing as "fully autonomous"

What's the nuance then?

You can get from one coast to the other entirely on a single interstate highway (e.g. I-80), and do it in dry weather and clear conditions. It's the easiest possible thing for an autonomous car to do and is basically just adaptive cruise control.

The hard part is making it work with crazy cyclists on city streets and blizzard conditions and defending against malicious adversaries who purposely try to confuse the car into crashing into something.

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#134

Post by nemo1618 »

leesec wrote: post #112

Once again I gotta say the negativity is astounding. People are so stoked to be rooting for this American tech company to fail. I really don't get it. The main gripe I see is that Tesla misses deadlines or makes promises they cannot fulfill. Is this not super common in nearly every industry? Have none of you missed deadlines? I remember this article[1]from last year stating GM would release fully autonomous cars with…

>They already have cars driving people 95% of their miles, which would've seemed impossible 6 years ago, and yet here we are, and the last 5% is going to take a decade?

"The first 90 percent of the code accounts for the first 90 percent of the development time. The remaining 10 percent of the code accounts for the other 90 percent of the development time."

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#135

Post by paulcole »

gibybo wrote: post #51
_red wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have yet speak to any experienced embedded developer who actually thinks "full autonomy" is remotely possible in the near/mid term. The suggestions that it is possible, seems to come mainly from junior developers and snake-oil salesman. We don't even have "full autonomous" trains, planes, or trucks yet.

"full autonomy" means lots of different things to different people. Some people think of it as being able to drive anywhere at any time in any condition. This is unlikely to ever happen before AGI. What matters in Tesla's case is more likely being able to drive in some small number of places in specific circumstances without a physical driver in the vehicle (but possibly a remote one to handle unusual circumstances).…

> "full autonomy" means lots of different things to different people.

And don't doubt that Elon/Tesla use this to their fullest advantage.

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#136

Post by gowld »

legitster wrote: post #96
linuxftw wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe it was an outright lie, an effort to solicit deposits and lure people into a bait-and-switch of higher priced models. All evidence to date suggests I'm right. Of course, they're never going to come out and say 'we fooled you' but I don't know what level of evidence people need before they reach the conclusion for themselves.

'Never attribute to malice what can adequately be explained by incompetence."

Deception and stupidity are merely implementation details of untrustworthiness. It doesn't matter.

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#137

Post by mhermher »

Shivetya wrote: post #85
legitster wrote: post #26

I get the strong impression that even as a loss leader, the $35,000 figure was based on some back of envelope calculations. We know that they have had to expand or increase the cost in several ways since they started production. I know they really want to make the Model T of electric cars, but it took about a decade of development for Ford to deliver one under $500. And I don't think Tesla has quite mastered the scie…

Maybe unrealistic in the end but I think they realized it was cheaper to not change up the assembly line too much and instead just build them all with the same interior options. Removing extra speakers is easy, not installing all the ambient lighting is simple, swapping out a leather interior with cloth isn't as that not only is a large item it means you need to secure supplies for an option that may not have suffici…

Maybe if Musk actually listened to the people he hires, they could have, you know, foreseen these kinds of things. The kind of things that car manufacturers forecast on a daily basis. Why is Tesla so uniquely chaotic?

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#138

Post by mhermher »

legitster wrote: post #96
linuxftw wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe it was an outright lie, an effort to solicit deposits and lure people into a bait-and-switch of higher priced models. All evidence to date suggests I'm right. Of course, they're never going to come out and say 'we fooled you' but I don't know what level of evidence people need before they reach the conclusion for themselves.

'Never attribute to malice what can adequately be explained by incompetence."

Incompetence? Isn't Elon a genius?

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#139

Post by mixmastamyk »

javagram wrote: post #108
mixmastamyk wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would love one with computers minimized and privacy as a first-class concern, just like Adama did in the newer Battlestar Galactica, haha. (I do like the feature where the car slows/stops when it encounters an obstacle directly ahead. As far as I know it shouldn't require machine-learning/privacy invasion, but it is harder and harder to get one without the other.)

Automatic emergency braking is a pretty standard/available feature on a lot of cars. Not sure about the privacy invasion part? I believe a lot of cars with AEB don’t have cellular connections so how could they invade privacy? I’m thinking of stuff like Honda Sensing or Subaru EyeSight here, or whatever Toyota puts on the Prius.

Not an expert on car hardware. However, I do know it is difficult to buy a car without computers in everything. Computers that record tons of data. Just because they don't have modems doesn't mean they don't spill everything at the dealer/smog-check when the cable is connected.

In electric cars such as Tesla, all this has been accelerated. In a recent thread, folks told stories of buying a used car, and receiving the PII and driving history of the previous owner.

It is also used against you, but never for you in regards to law-enforcement. Good reason to be skeptical.

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