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After the Bitcoin Boom: Hard Lessons for Cryptocurrency Investors

nytimes.com

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Re: After the Bitcoin Boom: Hard Lessons for Cryptocurrency Investors

#131

Post by rootusrootus »

bluecalm wrote: post #127
rootusrootus wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That started a long time ago. Buying stocks that pay no income is also referred to as investing, even though it is more accurately gambling as well. At least with stocks there is something with a more convincing value proposition.

C'mon, some stocks don't pay anything because there are better ways invest their profit. You still own equity in something tangible and generating value most of the time.

Sure, but you are gambling that their reinvestment will raise their stock value in the long run so that eventually you will make money. It's still a gamble, though.

Re: After the Bitcoin Boom: Hard Lessons for Cryptocurrency Investors

#132

Post by jondubois »

nathan_f77 wrote: post #95
tptacek wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm unclear on why we wouldn't just ban both things. The reason you can't buy a share of Uber or SpaceX is, effectively, that those companies don't want your money . Both could easily do a public offering and admit you as a shareholder, but choose not to. Further clarity: I'm "accredited", and I don't think I can buy a share of either company either.

That's not the only reason you can't buy a share of Uber or SpaceX. There are probably hundreds of employees who would jump at the chance to sell some of their vested shares. There are some secondary markets where you have to be an accredited investor, but most startups will block the transaction. P.S. I think it would be a very good idea to buy some Uber shares before their IPO. Maybe try EquityZen [1]. [1] https://…

Yes, the whole startup-to-corporate-acquisition-or-ipo funnel is an elaborate fraud and even the government is in on it. It's why many people invested in crypto in the first place.

Re: After the Bitcoin Boom: Hard Lessons for Cryptocurrency Investors

#133

Post by SilasX »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #105
21 wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then why do people say "invest in the stock market for the long run by buying an index fund?"

> Then why do people say "invest in the stock market for the long run by buying an index fund?" Because the American economy has historically grown. Buying an index of Austrian stocks on the eve of WWI would have been about as effective as buying cryptocurrencies.

IOW, taking past performance as indicative of future returns.

Re: After the Bitcoin Boom: Hard Lessons for Cryptocurrency Investors

#134

Post by bluecalm »

rootusrootus wrote: post #131
bluecalm wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

C'mon, some stocks don't pay anything because there are better ways invest their profit. You still own equity in something tangible and generating value most of the time.

Sure, but you are gambling that their reinvestment will raise their stock value in the long run so that eventually you will make money. It's still a gamble, though.

It's an investment. You buy equity in something that produces value. Paying dividends or not is a non issue. Sure there is risk but it's different than buying lottery tickets or imaginary internet money. Conflating the two in the eyes of the public was great success of crypto currency pump and dumpers.

Re: After the Bitcoin Boom: Hard Lessons for Cryptocurrency Investors

#135

Post by nunez »

cm2187 wrote: post #19
hluska wrote: post #14

> Now, eight months later, the $23,000 he invested in several digital tokens is worth about $4,000, and he is clearheaded about what happened. > “I got too caught up in the fear of missing out and trying to make a quick buck,” he said last week. “The losses have pretty much left me financially ruined.” I think it's distasteful to criticize the decisions that lead to someone's downfall, but maybe someone will read thi…

I don't think any investor saw this as anything else than a bubble, they just wanted to enjoy the ride up. I would go all-in in a bubble if I had the confidence someone would tap on my shoulder to let me know when it's going to crash. Investing requires discipline.

lolol

I had friends at my old job joining Coinbase with the full intent of "investing" significant dollars on Bitcoin. Soo...yeah.

Re: After the Bitcoin Boom: Hard Lessons for Cryptocurrency Investors

#136

Post by cm2187 »

gitgud wrote: post #125
cm2187 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think any investor saw this as anything else than a bubble, they just wanted to enjoy the ride up. I would go all-in in a bubble if I had the confidence someone would tap on my shoulder to let me know when it's going to crash. Investing requires discipline.

That's the definition of speculating. Investing requires more research and analysis.

I can’t really define a disctinction between investing, speculating or lending. They are all a calculated bet.

Re: After the Bitcoin Boom: Hard Lessons for Cryptocurrency Investors

#137

Post by orblivion »

Exuma wrote: post #91
orblivion wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your data shows that it's reasonably possible for it to spike again. However the sort of mockery of people who do think that it's different this time (and I see it all the time, it's not just you) is sort of funny. As if people who don't have faith in Bitcoin are somehow the naive ones. As if it's established wisdom by now, proven time and again through the ages, that Bitcoin always bounces back and outdoes itself by…

"Bitcoin always bounces back" is also silly. It could, or it could not.

Yep, that was a subset of my point. Maybe I wasn't totally clear.

Re: After the Bitcoin Boom: Hard Lessons for Cryptocurrency Investors

#138

Post by tim333 »

rootusrootus wrote: post #121
judah wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Institutional investors via Bitcoin futures ETFs[0]. It will likely result in a lot of money flowing into the market via funds and investment houses where investors seek to diversify their investments. That will probably bring the cryptocurrency market back up to $20K and above. It probably won't happen until 2019 or 2020, though. The SEC is still on the fence about it, but I see it as an eventual inevitability. [0]:…

Good grief, I hope that does not happen. I think any professional financial services people who blatantly speculate with clients' funds should be on the hook for criminal penalties. It's one thing for Joe Blow to play the speculation game with his own money, it's entirely different for a professional to do it with everyone else's.

Trouble is Joe Blow often wants it. You say you want to invest in this thingy that seems to go up 100% a year or nice sensible bonds and quite a few will want the thingy.

Re: After the Bitcoin Boom: Hard Lessons for Cryptocurrency Investors

#139

Post by oleganza »

rootusrootus wrote: post #47
oleganza wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin has been through at least 3-4 major "run ups" already. Those who do not look at the log chart think that "this time it's different" and Bitcoin will surely die for good. Later it'll crash from $250K to $50K and then it will certainly be the end. 2011: $1->$30->$3. 2012: $5->$15->$10. 2013: $10->$270->$80. 2013-14: $100->$1100->$250. 2016-2018: $500->$20000->$6000 (so far).

That looks like skillful manipulation to me. There is an important difference with the most recent bubble -- now bitcoin is a household name. Where is the next pool of gamblers coming from?

Bitcoin does not maintain the higher value due to "more gamblers", it only has value due to "more holders". Gamblers can come and go and affect only the volatility. But people who stay and hold for years and sell only a small fraction to pay the bills.

Sidenote: that last statement is often confused with "rent seeking", which is not the case at all with Bitcoin. Because it's virtually impossible to make more Bitcoin with your Bitcoin. There's no any sort of business that can give you a better return at the lower risk. So you don't live on the "rent", instead you live off "wasting your savings", although if you were patient enough for them to appreciate a lot and you spend <10% a year, you have a decent chance to keep the total value growing and not shrinking as time goes by. But you need to be frugal.

Re: After the Bitcoin Boom: Hard Lessons for Cryptocurrency Investors

#140

Post by oleganza »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #105
21 wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then why do people say "invest in the stock market for the long run by buying an index fund?"

> Then why do people say "invest in the stock market for the long run by buying an index fund?" Because the American economy has historically grown. Buying an index of Austrian stocks on the eve of WWI would have been about as effective as buying cryptocurrencies.

Considering that US is getting into debt on an accelerated schedule and runs wars all over the world non-stop since WW2, and has biggest military budget, and otherwise resembles the roman empire at its peak, do you think that musical chairs game will never end?
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