Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

cnbc.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

131–140 of 384 posts

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#131

Post by ArtWomb »

tsunamifury wrote: post #12
ArtWomb wrote: post #5

Finally got to drive Model 3 yesterday. A friend received his car a few days ago and let me try it on some suburban streets. Nothing fancy. But I did take it for a mini "drag race" against another buddy's Porsche 911. Again this was on a residential tree-lined street with kids playing outside. Not exactly fast and furious. But it definitely kept pace that first eighth of a mile ;) In my humble opinion it outclasses a…

I find it hard to believe that it would outclass a C-class on interior luxury, a BMW on overall sportiness. I've driven all these cars, and when you get in a Tesla is definitely feels like a significant step down.

It's not the trim and details. It's the experience. Luxury car dashboard software lacks intelligence.

But I spent less than an hour with it. And am generally more of a Subaru Outback or Ford F150 person, though I still appreciate fine German engineering. Can't quite put my finger on it, but it just felt lighter than the MB 4-door sedans I have driven in the past. Despite the EV battery and distribution ;)

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#132

Post by saas_co_de »

shafyy wrote: post #115
panarky wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine that today is July 1, 2020. Looking back I see three scenarios. 1) It's clear now that the company is a sham and Musk is a snake-oil salesman. It's all smoke, mirrors, bubblegum and baling wire. After hitting 5000 cars per week one time, they never reached that level again. The company had to do a punishingly dilutive capital raise just to get 6 months more runway, and the company's market cap is now $6 billi…

You think there is a 10% chance that Musk is snake-oil salesman and a sham?

Not to mention his mental state and admitted drug abuse.

Cocaine may be a hell of a drug but not sure it really helps in the boardroom.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#133

Post by ambicapter »

anoncoward111 wrote: post #120
philipodonnell wrote: post #54

> with the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Chief Executive Elon Musk No, they missed the deadline, twice now. Lot of Muskites in these comments, remember, Tesla failed to meet the same deadline in January and pushed it to June. (EDIT: I've been told they missed this 3 times now, the 5K/wk figure was originally Dec '17, then Jan '18 then Jun '18).…

Oh my god, come on. I'm a Tesla bear , and I don't really see a massive different between a rate of 4,850 cars and 5,000 cars....

52 * 150 * 35,000 = 273M in revenue.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#134

Post by unclebucknasty »

shafyy wrote: post #115
panarky wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine that today is July 1, 2020. Looking back I see three scenarios. 1) It's clear now that the company is a sham and Musk is a snake-oil salesman. It's all smoke, mirrors, bubblegum and baling wire. After hitting 5000 cars per week one time, they never reached that level again. The company had to do a punishingly dilutive capital raise just to get 6 months more runway, and the company's market cap is now $6 billi…

You think there is a 10% chance that Musk is snake-oil salesman and a sham?

Assuming the standard meaning of the phrase "snake-oil salesman", I think the odds that this is all an elaborate sham to knowingly dupe people into buying a product that doesn't exist converge on zero.

But, the case can certainly be made that he is prone to hyperbole and "exuberant optimism".

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#135

Post by ycnewbienomore »

I can’t give up my Model 3. Driving any Tesla car is a dopamine hit. You really have to try and drive them to experience it and you’ll be hooked. Many people don’t realize what a refreshing and tremendous difference a smooth and powerful torque curve gives. Seriously forget all the noise about Elon Musk. Try and drive an electric car, which are by far still smoother than gear-shifting gas powered cars, and then try a Tesla.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#136

Post by slg »

gizmo wrote: post #124
panarky wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine that today is July 1, 2020. Looking back I see three scenarios. 1) It's clear now that the company is a sham and Musk is a snake-oil salesman. It's all smoke, mirrors, bubblegum and baling wire. After hitting 5000 cars per week one time, they never reached that level again. The company had to do a punishingly dilutive capital raise just to get 6 months more runway, and the company's market cap is now $6 billi…

Why should Tesla be worth 600B if they produce 2 million cars a year? Toyota makes 10M cars per year and has a market cap of less than 300B. Future growth is already baked into Tesla's current valuation of 60B. They're not making any money today (in fact they're losing billions) but they have a high market cap because they might become profitable years from now. Once (if) they become a mature car manufacturer their v…

Tesla's best case scenario is much more than an automaker. They also have hopes of being an energy company, a battery company, a transportation company, and a logistics company. There is still a lot of debate whether any of those will actually become profitable (and I think 2020 is a very aggressive timeline for any of this to happen), but there are huge potential revenue streams for Tesla that simply don't exist for other automakers like Toyota.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#137

Post by anoncoward111 »

ambicapter wrote: post #133
anoncoward111 wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh my god, come on. I'm a Tesla bear , and I don't really see a massive different between a rate of 4,850 cars and 5,000 cars....

52 * 150 * 35,000 = 273M in revenue.

assuming Tesla can't find a way to boost production by just 3% over those 52 weeks, it will take less than two weeks to make those additional cars.

Their revenue isn't supply driven anyway, it is demand driven. Two weeks of delay will not result in 273M in lost sales. It will just result in delayed sales.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#138

Post by csomar »

panarky wrote: post #103
philipodonnell wrote: post #54

> with the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Chief Executive Elon Musk No, they missed the deadline, twice now. Lot of Muskites in these comments, remember, Tesla failed to meet the same deadline in January and pushed it to June. (EDIT: I've been told they missed this 3 times now, the 5K/wk figure was originally Dec '17, then Jan '18 then Jun '18).…

Imagine that today is July 1, 2020. Looking back I see three scenarios. 1) It's clear now that the company is a sham and Musk is a snake-oil salesman. It's all smoke, mirrors, bubblegum and baling wire. After hitting 5000 cars per week one time, they never reached that level again. The company had to do a punishingly dilutive capital raise just to get 6 months more runway, and the company's market cap is now $6 billi…

> I assign probabilities of 10%, 50% and 40% to these scenarios

Well, the devil is in the details. Where did these numbers come from?

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#139

Post by njarboe »

sremani wrote: post #129
panarky wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine that today is July 1, 2020. Looking back I see three scenarios. 1) It's clear now that the company is a sham and Musk is a snake-oil salesman. It's all smoke, mirrors, bubblegum and baling wire. After hitting 5000 cars per week one time, they never reached that level again. The company had to do a punishingly dilutive capital raise just to get 6 months more runway, and the company's market cap is now $6 billi…

The third scenario seems 40% until you realize that 2 million Model 3s per year @ average price of 45K are being sold. I am not a car market place expert, $45K cars do not usually move in those numbers. edit: For reference, check the number of cars moved. https://www.statista.com/statistics/276419/best-selling-cars...

If these $45k cars are fully automatic (a big if for sure), then $45k will be a bargain price and would probably capture at least half the new car market.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#140

Post by _Microft »

notlob wrote: post #126
andromeduck wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its discussed towards the bottom of that Bloomberg link.

Can you quote the text here? For the life of me I can’t find the section you’re referencing. I’ve heard the “timing production to match tax credit” thing before and it doesn’t make sense to me, hence why I’m trying to track down the primary source.

There's a tax credit of $7500 that will begin to be phased out as soon as they sold 200 000 cars to US customers.

Phase out starts with the same tax credit still applying for the remainder of the current quarter and the next one (before being reduced in later ones) and that's exactly the reason why they would want to match reaching the threshold to the beginning of a new quarter. This way they have as much time as possible to ship as many cars as possible to their customers (that's OK then since numbers sold do not affect the phase out beside the threshold of 200 000 cars).

Post reply on HN