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US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

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Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#131

Post by matte_black »

notheguyouthink wrote: post #63
Viker wrote: post #10

Interesting... How many people here would say that they have actively decided not to have children? I am just curious.

Wife and I decided ages ago to not have children. I had a vascetomy when I was ~25. I think our reasons differ, and mine are confused, but it's very clear to both of us that we never want children. Oddly, she liked being an aunt though, so there is that.

When you are an aunt or an uncle caring for nephews and nieces is super cheap, and once you no longer get the same joy of spending time with them as they grow older you can back off without guilt. Similar to grandparents.

At the end of the day, the kids go home with their own parents.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#132

Post by Symmetry »

Analemma_ wrote: post #99
Symmetry wrote: post #34

Huh, I did a blog post about this just last night. Basically, people's personality has an impact on whether they have kids, personality is heritable, fertility won't be low forever given current conditions but who knows how conditions will change. http://hopefullyintersting.blogspot.com/2018/05/falling-fert...

> Basically, people's personality has an impact on whether they have kids, Maybe you address in your post, but as stated this doesn't make a lot of sense. Fertility is falling across all demographics and in all developed countries and has been for decades – are you saying everybody everywhere has experienced a personality shift over that time? And while fertility probably does have some genetic component, I think tha…

No, I'm saying that both personality and material conditions have an effect on who has children. Or it might be that the personality traits that cause people to have children in 21st century America are different than those that caused people to have children in 19th century America. But in any event the traits that seem to cause people to have more children in current US conditions are substantially heritable. How many generations will it take? Quite possibly a lot but it'll happen eventually baring further external shocks.

And there are lots of other factors involved as well. I think the differences in fertility between Germany and France are particularly illustrative.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#133

Post by ddebernardy »

wetpaws wrote: post #90
jacquesm wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, you could of course move but in the end it is mostly about priorities.

Going from expensive area with good job market to slightly less expensive area with little to no job market. Rrright.

FWIW I'd pick the latter in a heart beat - in it right now, if anything. I can't name anything more life fulfilling than having kids.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#134

Post by spookthesunset »

maxk42 wrote: post #102
Karishma1234 wrote: post #36

Not true at all. Turns out that the poor people who actually cant afford to have kids are having more kids. Hispanic and Black growth is much higher than whites and asians. Asians with the highest income level have lowest birth rate. Given that it is mostly whites who have been leading in STEM there is a high chance that US will lose its competitive advantage in these fields.

I wonder if the poor are having more children because they feel like they have less to lose? I desperately want to have kids and my girlfriend is on board, but she makes next to nothing and I make quite a lot of money. I tried an online calculator and if things go awry between us, I'll be paying her roughly a quarter of my post-tax income for the next two decades here in California. That's just too big a gamble for m…

Sounds more like you have a relationship problem than a financial problem.... if you are worried about things going south between you and your partner you have bigger issues to work out than having kids.

Also, you'd be insane not to get married before having kids. It's a legal contract between you and your partner that kinda comes in handy if you get disabled, die, etc...

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#135

Post by bluedino »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #47
Karishma1234 wrote: post #36

Not true at all. Turns out that the poor people who actually cant afford to have kids are having more kids. Hispanic and Black growth is much higher than whites and asians. Asians with the highest income level have lowest birth rate. Given that it is mostly whites who have been leading in STEM there is a high chance that US will lose its competitive advantage in these fields.

> Not true at all. Turns out that the poor people who actually cant afford to have kids are having more kids. Hispanic and Black growth is much higher than whites and asians. You're technically correct, but minorities are only slightly higher (birth rate wise) than whites. "It’s official: Minority babies are the majority among the nation’s infants, but only just" http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/06/23/its-of…

>> You're technically correct, but minorities are only slightly higher (birth rate wise) than whites.

I'd bet the ones that have closer incomes to the black/hispanic population have closer birthrates

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#136

Post by overcast »

Viker wrote: post #10

Interesting... How many people here would say that they have actively decided not to have children? I am just curious.

38, and unless I find a seriously convincing argument from the next woman in my life. Not happening. I don't have a desire to have a kid, but it's fun to interact with them in short bursts(friends). This of course can change tomorrow, that's life.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#137

Post by cowpewter »

Viker wrote: post #10

Interesting... How many people here would say that they have actively decided not to have children? I am just curious.

I'm not having children. There are a lot of reasons.

1) I'm a woman married to another woman. Yes, one of us could get a donor, but it's one more hurdle, and it means we won't ever have one accidentally.

2) Debt. We've got some debt that needs to be paid off, and babies are expensive.

3) We'd need a bigger home. Right now the house we're in is paid off in full, and we'd have to go through the whole home-selling/buying process if we wanted enough space for kids.

4) Health concerns. I'm depressed, diabetic, and have fibromyalgia. My doctor says I also likely have PCOS and due to that I might not even be fertile. So I'm not a good candidate to try to get pregnant. My wife has her own health concerns, which are genetic, and she doesn't want to pass them down to a kid. I don't want to pass on the fibro or diabetes either. They both suck.

5) We're happy as is. We've got cats instead of kids (insert lesbians-with-cats joke here?). A lot of our friends have kids, so we're both pretty content to just be "aunties" to all our friends' kids.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#138

Post by jotm »

tabtab wrote: post #19
gregorymichael wrote: post #2

What are the economic ramifications of fertility rate being below the replacement level?

There are also military ramifications. If we get into a big skirmish with China, they will overwhelm us with soldiers and high-volume weapon manufacturing capability.

I thought nukes solved that. What's the point of them if someone can overwhelm you with soldiers...

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#139

Post by magic_beans »

nostromo wrote: post #114
madamelic wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, a fact is that illegal immigrants are willing to work for dirt-cheap which subsidizes our produce price. :) https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/in-an-immigrat...

Cheap produce is awesome. :) But working people not being able to find jobs because they're competing with dirt-cheap no-benefit laborers is not. :(

These working people who can't find jobs are addicted to opiates or refuse to educate themselves. Dirt cheap illegal laborers slave over jobs a white American would never, ever do.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#140

Post by freyir »

dagw wrote: post #96
freyir wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Historically, children generated profit. These days, in developed countries, children are expensive. They cost money and time (e.g., years that you would otherwise spend going to school, building a career).

These days, in developed countries, children are expensive. Sure, but they're far cheaper in both Sweden and Finland than in the US, yet people are still having fewer children there, so it can't simply be a cost issue.

The monetary cost of a Swedish child might be lower (though to some extent, the cost is just distributed across the population in the form of taxes), but the opportunity cost is not. Scandinavian countries have high rates of post-secondary education, which delays parenthood, and even with progressive workforce policies, having children can slow career advancement [1].

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2004/sep/22/books.famil...

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