Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#131

Post by pavs » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 3:12 PM UTC

danso wrote: post #81

pavs wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think most people shouldn't take this tracker seriously as it was wildly off most of the time and was often manually adjusted.

The tracker on Apr. 2 (Google Cache) has an estimate of 12,245 units, which is based off of a confirmed production total of 2,686 at the end of Q4. http://archive.is/WXoXw Today's announcement says 9,766 M3s were produced in Q1: 9766 + 2686, i.e. 12452. They don't seem that far off?

It was adjusted manually in the beginning of the month. In March it was all over the place. I think unofficial tracker like this, even with all the disclaimers, actually makes this worse.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#132

Post by dmode » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 3:13 PM UTC

qaq wrote: post #112

jacquesm wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reading a book doesn't change fundamentals. Tesla is heading for a rough time, I sincerely hope they make it through and hope that Musk will not come to regret making that stupid joke.

On the scale of Tesla's own history how would you rate that rough time? E.g. is it more rough vs 1st year of Tesla 2nd year? 3rd Year? How rough is it for people who actually pulled through all the challenges they faced from the founding till now. I think people are overestimating the "rough times" part. Musk and Tesla have a ton of good will that no other automaker has and they can leverage that in a rough situation…

This. When the first Model X came off the line and it was full of quality issues, that was a rough time. When NYT wrote a tough piece on the early Model S, that was a tough time. When the early Model S caught on fire that was a rough time. This is definitely NOT even close to rough time. 2000 Model 3 per week is close to Model S numbers.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#133

Post by paulcole » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 3:13 PM UTC

planetjones wrote: post #13

I used to be one of the people who poked fun at Musk and suggested people short Tesla stock (as the valuation is crazy compared to the production and penetration numbers). But I am no longer that person. I read his biography (Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future) and this is a guy who genuinely wants to change things on a macro scale: opening up space, changing transportation. He is also a g…

You think the author of the biography would’ve been given “exclusive access to Musk, his family and friends” if the book didn’t portray him in a positive way?

It’s marketing and (among other things) Elon Musk is an excellent marketer.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#134

Post by projectramo » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 3:14 PM UTC

justacat wrote: post #100

planetjones wrote: post #13

I used to be one of the people who poked fun at Musk and suggested people short Tesla stock (as the valuation is crazy compared to the production and penetration numbers). But I am no longer that person. I read his biography (Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future) and this is a guy who genuinely wants to change things on a macro scale: opening up space, changing transportation. He is also a g…

> Plus the deletion of the SpaceX and Tesla facebook pages, when told over Twitter they existed was pretty funny. Wait, did Elon not know about them and then just got them deleted upon finding out?

Yes!

edit: I should say "apparently!" since I wasn't there myself

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#135

Post by saas_co_de » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 3:14 PM UTC

dmode wrote: post #123

saas_co_de wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really reeks of desperation. They are frantically doing anything they can to keep investor confidence but all of their tricks are so worn out and tired now and their debt load and burn rate is so much higher that it isn't going to change anything. They will go bankrupt. 100%. Maybe they can arrange some buy out or merger to try and save face, but doubtful. Given their level of candor I am sure their accounting is…

I have been hearing this bankruptcy coming for the last 7 years. Yet, Tesla keeps delivering. I remember when the Model X production started, people had already written the obituary because of quality issues. The key thing to note is that Tesla's demand far outstrips supply and Tesla's customer satisfaction rate is over 90%. They can raise any amount of liquidity with those numbers.

> They can raise any amount of liquidity with those numbers.

7.5% bond yield says no.

> I have been hearing this bankruptcy coming for the last 7 years

Yes, the anticipation makes it even sweeter. :)

But seriously, they have been loosing money non-stop and at progressively higher rates for those entire 7 years, so what do you think is going to happen?

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#136

Post by maxander » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 3:15 PM UTC

I clicked on this article expecting a graph of an exponential curve, and they utterly failed to deliver. Who cares how many cars they’re making, if they can’t make a decent exponential curve? That is the #1 priority product of any California hype house! How are we supposed to believe they’ll amount to anything if they can’t show us a trend line that would consume all matter on the planet by 2045?

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#137

Post by qaq » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 3:15 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #118

qaq wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the scale of Tesla's own history how would you rate that rough time? E.g. is it more rough vs 1st year of Tesla 2nd year? 3rd Year? How rough is it for people who actually pulled through all the challenges they faced from the founding till now. I think people are overestimating the "rough times" part. Musk and Tesla have a ton of good will that no other automaker has and they can leverage that in a rough situation…

There are a lot of things coming together that each individually would have been a serious challenge, to have them all at once and within 6 months of each other is pretty rough. Even so, I would not bet against Musk, he has a habit of making it through somehow. There is a book with a character in it called Reid Malenfant, Musk reminds me of that character. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_(Baxter_novel) You get to…

I'll give you a hypothetical about what I tried to convey. Qatar is spending 200 billion in relation to world cup 2022 in large part as a part of PR effort. Now imaging 2 hypothetical news stories VW AG is opening and innovation center in Doha, Qatar. Tesla Inc. is opening an innovation center in Doha, Qatar. What would be a PR value for each of them be for Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani just ballpark a figure that he would be willing to put up for each one.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#138

Post by WhompingWindows » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 3:16 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #113

xutopia wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How are they headed for hard times? I'm genuinely uneducated on the matter and want to know more.

Tesla is attempting to change too much at once. New model, new (highly automated) production line and adding a degree of self driving over and beyond what is currently present in other cars, probably will run out of cash somewhere this year. Any one of those would be a major challenge and a major achievement to lick. While I totally admire Elon Musk for challenging all these things at once you have to wonder about th…

I don't think any of it is too much for Elon to handle. I think the problem is that he over-hypes the potential output of his companies, leading to constant "delays" and "setbacks". If he just kept his numeric predictions to himself and said "we will perform an exponential ramp over the first few years on par with the Model T", he wouldn't see so much flak for not hitting Model 3 production claims.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#139

Post by projectramo » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 3:19 PM UTC

Someone1234 wrote: post #27

InTheArena wrote: post #12

The "leaks" on email this last week have changed the narrative a lot. The leak last week (probably not planned) of "prove the haters wrong" resulted in a sell off, while the leak over the weekend cushioned the final numbers. That said, TSLA, just like SpaceX plays really close to the edge with equity and risk in pursuit of a vision. What most Tesla shorts fail to recognize is that Tesla has already gotten to the poin…

> The cars are really a minimal amount of hardware, with software wrapped around them. It is a car... An electric car at that, where battery tech and costs have pretty much been the cornerstone of Tesla's success. Claiming hardware doesn't matter to a car company is like claiming foundation doesn't matter for a house. Plus there's nothing particularly minimalist about any of Tesla's cars. They take relatively simple…

I don't know enough about all the parts of the car, but generally speaking, many people have argued that an electric car is much simpler than a mechanical car. (Something to do with the complexity of the engine, gear, drive train etc).

If I recall, one study indicated that maintenance costs on an ev are a fraction of the current costs for that reason.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#140

Post by throwawaydream » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 3:19 PM UTC

ckastner wrote: post #5

> The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. They're way behind the goals they set for themselves, but instead of measurin…

Beyond all the spin, they stated the following important facts:

- Produced 2020 cars and expect to produce the 2000 next week. - Tesla does not require an equity or debt raise this year

I think these two facts laid to rest a number of concerns from last couple week: production rate, running out of money, moody's rating cut. The one major thing that's still pending is the last week's fatal crash.

As far as I can tell, this is a great progress from where we were last week.