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Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

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Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#131
post #13

This is the beginning of the Big Churn. Less top talent will want to be associated with facebook. Already even a few more privacy clueless friends family members are deleting their accounts. Adverts were always so low yeild, and fb pages 'because we need one'. Now that is all changing due to perception. The FTC, stocks falling, are further indicatuons of falling trust. And all business is built on trust.

Oh please - the overreaction from this is ridiculous. I'm buying FB call options. Facebook's network effect is extremely strong - this is also not even including their other assets (Instagram, Whatsapp, Oculus). The API access was in violation of terms of service and the ability to access data through friends via the FB graph has already been closed.

Facebook's network effect is extremely strong...

Network effects are not as strong as you might think. Multiple lines of evidence point to it being O(n log(n)) in general. See https://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/networks/metcalfes-law-i... for details.

The log(n) factor does work in Facebook's favor against newcomers. It is a barrier to entry. However it is a barrier to entry that can be overcome with a better user experience.

My desired experience is that I want to see what my friends have to say, and don't want to see random commercial spam. My Facebook feed includes crap from any time I liked a viral link, and DOES NOT include a significant fraction of what my friends had to say. It is very far from my desired experience.

I already see people trying out alternatives like Mastadon. Existing chat applications like Slack and Discord could be turned into social networks. And properties like Instagram and Whatsapp stand as demonstrations that social networks are more easily started than you might think. Facebook can only keep buying up its potential competitors for so long until it runs across one that dreams of something bigger than Facebook can offer.

Short term I believe that there is an overreaction to news. But long-term, I would not want to bet on Facebook. Not over the next 20 years.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If facebook’s engineering talent is top tier, then how come I have to recommend to everyone to delete that awful battery draining app.

What kind of counter point is that? If Apple has top tier talent, why do they ship an OS with a huge security vulnerability? With a map framework that has memory leaks? With a messaging app that messes up the order of messages? If Google has top tier talent, why did they create an OS that allowed a third party developer to siphon calls, contacts and messages? If this is your argument, then no company has top talent.

"no company has top talent" is much closer to the truth than your implied assumption that even companies drenched in top talent must deliver shit products.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you talking about? The NASDAQ was down 4% since last Friday. Facebook was down almost 20% from Friday this morning...

Sorry, but what are you talking about? Facebook closed on Thursday at $165. It closed on Friday at $160. FB was up by half a percent today, on Monday. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FB?p=FB

[deleted]

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you talking about? The NASDAQ was down 4% since last Friday. Facebook was down almost 20% from Friday this morning...

Sorry, but what are you talking about? Facebook closed on Thursday at $165. It closed on Friday at $160. FB was up by half a percent today, on Monday. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FB?p=FB

> Facebook closed on Thursday at $165. It closed on Friday at $160

16 March open to 26 March close, Facebook lost 13% of its value [1]. The same statistic for the S&P 500 is 3.4%. This time horizon makes more sense than yours because it matches the first revelations of Cambridge Analytica's use of Facebook's data [3].

[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FB/history?p=FB

[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC

[3] https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/17/us/politics/cambridge-ana...

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, Facebook's current network is fairly strong, but you shouldn't look to where the masses currently are, you should look to where the trendsetters, the young, and the people in the know—where they are. These people are ahead of the curve, and the signs they are emitting is that Facebook is not serving their interests and needs. Young people don't want to use facebook because it forces you to interact with everyone…

All young people are on FB, they may additionally be on something else (probably Instagram which is also FB and starving out Snap) - the default remains Facebook. I'd bet against you. The trajectory is fine and Zuckerberg is a good CEO. They have nearly a third of the earth as users and a ridiculously high percentage of internet users. Given a long enough time horizon any company is vulnerable, but FB is here to stay…

Having one third of the earth’s population touch your site at least once won’t matter if you do nothing particularly useful.

Facebook does almost nothing useful. It’s kind irritating to actually try to do anything with the user interface, since everything is slippery funnels.

Whatever isn’t an inductive dark pattern is otherwise emotional blackmail. The options and settings provided to the user don’t make sense, and are all defaulted to the worst choices imaginable.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#136
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Loss of confidence in this overall space. Google relies on surveilling users and selling them to advertisers as much as Facebook or more.

Google obviously relies heavily on ad revenue, but their business is far more diversified than FB. Consider: Google Play revenue (apps + media purchase/rental) Hardware (Pixel phone/Google home/Nest hardware) YouTube video ad revenue (brand based ads rather than search) Youtube TV, Youtube Red subscription revenue Google Cloud (>$1BB/quarter) Plus the other tech on the horizon, that if something pops here, it will be…

Yeah? And what's the ratio of ad revenue to total revenue in 2017?

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, Facebook's current network is fairly strong, but you shouldn't look to where the masses currently are, you should look to where the trendsetters, the young, and the people in the know—where they are. These people are ahead of the curve, and the signs they are emitting is that Facebook is not serving their interests and needs. Young people don't want to use facebook because it forces you to interact with everyone…

All young people are on FB, they may additionally be on something else (probably Instagram which is also FB and starving out Snap) - the default remains Facebook. I'd bet against you. The trajectory is fine and Zuckerberg is a good CEO. They have nearly a third of the earth as users and a ridiculously high percentage of internet users. Given a long enough time horizon any company is vulnerable, but FB is here to stay…

The young people I know is now on Snapchat or Instagram. Fb is now the place for adult people.

WhatsApp doesn't have this problem. It's hard to monetize with ads but it's a data goldmine.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#138
post #13

This is the beginning of the Big Churn. Less top talent will want to be associated with facebook. Already even a few more privacy clueless friends family members are deleting their accounts. Adverts were always so low yeild, and fb pages 'because we need one'. Now that is all changing due to perception. The FTC, stocks falling, are further indicatuons of falling trust. And all business is built on trust.

Top ten free apps on the US AppStore have largely remained the same through out this current scandal:

1) YouTube

2) Instagram

3) messenger

4) google maps

5) Snapchat

6) Facebook

7) Netflix

8) Bitmoji (Snapchat)

9) Gmail

10) Spotify

These apps change when something major happens. When storms happen you see weather and walkie talkie apps shoot to the top.

In sports seasons you see sports apps for baseball/football etc shoot up.

When crypto was going crazy over Xmas, coinbase was number one for a few days.

Back to school prompts education apps to go to the top for a while.

The public doesn’t seem to care enough to ditch social media apps right now. Either that or perhaps a good alternative doesn’t exist yet.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I'm not top talent, and haven't been pursued by Facebook, I've always wondered why anyone would want to be associated with them. Other than as a status symbol in tech. I've never thought of them as anything less than a reprehensible company.

Very good compensation is one reason I can think of.

Yep, my brother decided to join Facebook in a non-tech role (admittedly, right before the #deletefacebook movement began), and it was purely for the compensation. He even joked he had joined "the dark side". I've been off Facebook since 2011, so it was a bit disappointing. But, the compensation was the highest out of the companies he got offers from (Google, Stripe, etc.), so I don't blame him.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#140
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't know either. The reason your cite, status in tech, however, could be a real thing. FB was innovative in some areas like infrastructure and PHP. If your career goal is to set yourself up as a PHP guru, some FB credentials could be useful. If you think about it, a guy who wouldn't mind his career being about PHP is exactly the type who wouldn't get why ('zuckerberg-couldn't-get-laid(a-busines-carries-founder…

> If you think about it, a guy who wouldn't mind his career being about PHP is exactly the type who wouldn't get why ('zuckerberg-couldn't-get-laid(a-busines-carries-founder-DNA)). I don't see how the opinion you're promoting here is any more mature than what you're criticizing.

Perhaps not more mature, but I laughed.
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