BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020 • Hacker News Board

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#131

Post by detaro » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 8:12 PM UTC

michaelt wrote: post #126

detaro wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If making delivery vans for one of the biggest users of delivery vehicles in Germany (that uses tons of VW vans currently) is "a small project outside their core competency", VW really is in trouble.

Most van companies offer a "chassis cab" option [1] - basically a van with the cab present, but most of the back missing. There's then an ecosystem of companies that will work with end users to design, build and fit custom van bodies. If you want a mobile broadcast van, or an ambulance or a mobile command centre? That's where they come from. If you see delivery vans that aren't standard models, they've almost certain…

Deutsche Post uses a fair amount of the standard "van-type" vans by VW, and even if someone else is making a custom body electrifying the chassis is clearly a job for VW.

Given that VW's CEO has been whining to the press about how annoying it is that VW is now not their customer but a competitor, they clearly now think that they should have wanted the job more. My guess is that they did not expect the Post (which as a massive, formerly state-owned company you'd expect to be fairly conservative) to risk going their own way and succeed with it, and thus misjudged the risk involved with letting them pass.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#132

Post by ptaipale » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 8:14 PM UTC

vvanders wrote: post #124

kickopotomus wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is not proof of that. Tesla is an EV company from the ground up. They also do not have the capacity to produce vehicles at the rate of companies like BMW, Mercedes, Honda, etc. Moreover, car companies do not have "infinite cash reserves". Retooling factories for EV production is an expensive undertaking. Combined with the expense of lithium cells and supply issues, it's not a simple or cheap task.

> They also do not have the capacity to produce vehicles at the rate of companies like BMW, Mercedes, Honda, etc. I don't buy that for a second, esp given that they are now out-selling the S Class[1]. [1] https://electrek.co/2017/05/26/tesls-model-s-leading-us-larg...

The S class is a prestige product for Mercedes, its volumes are minuscule compared to other models.

Tesla made about 100 000 cars in 2017. Mercedes produced almost 2.4 million.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#133

Post by vvanders » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 8:14 PM UTC

sxates wrote: post #130

vvanders wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They also do not have the capacity to produce vehicles at the rate of companies like BMW, Mercedes, Honda, etc. I don't buy that for a second, esp given that they are now out-selling the S Class[1]. [1] https://electrek.co/2017/05/26/tesls-model-s-leading-us-larg...

To be fair - the S Class is a relatively low volume car. I don't have exact figures, but I'd expect it to be in the range of 2-3% of the cars Mercedes manufactures. BMW made nearly 2,000,000 cars in 2015[1], and this year, best case, Tesla will make 150,000. That's an order of magnitude difference in scale. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW#Production

Yes, but in the context of a single production line that I feel like that reasoning doesn't stand. Yes Telsa doesn't make as much in volume, but we're already only talking about cars in the EV segment.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#134

Post by gizmo385 » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 8:16 PM UTC

Robotbeat wrote: post #106

skybrian wrote: post #100

Folks, two years is not very long. The optimistic take on this is "wow, we might get mass production of electric cars in two years? Great!" How long does it take to design and build a car factory, anyway?

This is a very good point. But I will see if BMW actually does mass produce EVs. It's not that expensive. If you can afford $10,000-$20,000 over the life of a car in fuel (plus a few thousand in oil changes and brake jobs), you can afford a $7500 battery. Especially since that pulls thousands of dollars worth of complexity out of the drivetrain.

I think the issue is that it's $7500 in one transaction if a battery goes bad, versus the cost of fuel which is spread out over the lifetime of the car.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#135

Post by qbrass » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 8:16 PM UTC

breser wrote: post #85

sweden wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have to disagree, most of the current electric car offerings on the market are more expensive than the base price of the Model 3 (looking at the BMW i3 in Europe, the base price is 45000 dollars). Tesla is a company that was built from the ground up, without any prior design and manufacturing experience, and they have been mass producing cars for only 5 or 6 years. You can't simply expect them to have the same busi…

No the base price is $35,000. They simply haven't started letting anyone buy the $35,000 versions yet. You can say this is a failure on the part of Tesla. But this is not the first time they've had a lower end model that was planned but not immediately available upon production. Case in point when the All Wheel Drive Model S was announced, they didn't make non-performance versions available for several months after.

It doesn't stop everyone from saying they make $35,000 cars. So it's a success, not a failure on the part of Tesla.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#136

Post by Etheryte » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 8:17 PM UTC

idonotknowwhy wrote: post #11

vinhboy wrote: post #2

This has been said many times, but it feels like all the manufacturers colluded to make EV cars extremely ugly and undesirable. Prime example being the BMW i3. Of all the nice looking cars they have in their line up, one has to wonder why they went with an i3. Put that same capability in a 3-series and it would have been a different story.

The Audi a3 e-tron looks like any other "normal" Audi

That's true, and is a good choice if you ask me, but that's an exception, rather than the norm.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#137

Post by llsf » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 8:17 PM UTC

adrianN wrote: post #109

llsf wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am wondering if, after 2020, western countries would not need as many cars that they used to have. It feels like new generations do not own as many cars as their parents. If self-driving are indeed coming soon, dropping the cost of transportation, then we might need less cars than we currently use (or not use as they are parked 95% of time, http://fortune.com/2016/03/13/cars-parked-95-percent-of-time... ). So maybe…

After 2020, western countries are probably not the biggest market for new cars.

I agree, although not sure if the current main legacy car manufacturers (VW, BMW, GM, even Toyota) would necessarily be the leaders in non-western countries. They might be losing on both sides, the high-end electric vehicles (less volume, lower margin) and the cars needed for developing countries. Feels like, current car manufacturers have a lot to lose in the coming years...

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#138

Post by dangrossman » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 8:19 PM UTC

lttlrck wrote: post #26

marcell wrote: post #12

For all the crap Tesla gets, this shows why they are so necessary. Switching to electric car production is a huge disruption for the existing auto industry. It basically eliminates the dealer service revenue, and turns the supply chain upside down. I doubt they would be making any effort in electric cars if the threat of Tesla did not exist. Even as it is, they are dragging their feet.

How does it eliminate dealer service revenue? If anything goes wrong on a car these days it has been my experience it's quite unlikely to be anything specific to ICE. It'll be electromechanical (mirrors, seats, windows, locks), electrical (heating, cooling), mechanical (suspension bushes, axle boots, springs) and the biggest wear items brake and tires also remain...

The Chevy Bolt's service schedule starts with a coolant flush at 150,000 miles. I've been driving two Nissan Leafs for 4 years (a 2012 then a 2018) that have not seen a dealer since I purchased them. The brake pads are good for the life of the car; you have to purposely slam the brakes every few months just to avoid them sticking and rusting from disuse. Well-made EVs generate virtually no revenue for dealer service centers.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#139

Post by kjksf » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 8:20 PM UTC

maxerickson wrote: post #49

ChuckMcM wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the stated reason from the article, "... its current technology is not profitable enough to scale up for volume production" which was exactly the same reason that GM gave for cancelling the EV-1. Which if you compare that to the state of the world in 2008 when Tesla launched its Roadster you can see the difference of "We can't buy anything to solve this problem" and "This is a problem, what needs to be create…

Right, but Tesla lost a big pile of money on the Roadster and the Bolt is reasonably comparable to the Model 3. GM isn't generations behind Tesla, they are sitting there forcing Tesla to execute or die.

> Bolt is reasonably comparable to the Model 3

Not as judged by buyers.

According to https://insideevs.com/february-2018-plug-electric-vehicle-sa... Model 3 is already outselling Bolt (in February 2.5k vs. 1.5k)

Model 3 is on track to sell 20k per month within months, which will be 10x Bolt sales.

If buyers show 10x preference of X vs. Y, Y is not "reasonably comparable".

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#140

Post by Fins » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 8:20 PM UTC

mulmen wrote: post #82

detaro wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If making delivery vans for one of the biggest users of delivery vehicles in Germany (that uses tons of VW vans currently) is "a small project outside their core competency", VW really is in trouble.

Does VW already know how to make electric vehicles? How many would they sell relative to their total sales of existing ICE vans? Is it worth starting up an entire new business for one customer? I think this can be explained by VW just deciding its not worth it rather than saying VW is trying to suppress electric vehicle development.

Don't they have an e-Golf? They know how to build an electric car. It's building one that's actually profitable without heavy tax subsidies and at VW's build quality that's a problem. Tesla hasn't figured that out either.